781
FXUS64 KEPZ 202353
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
453 PM MST THU NOV 20 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 449 PM MST THU NOV 20 2025
- OUR LATEST STORM SYSTEM IS SLOWLY DEPARTING THE REGION, WITH
SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY KEEPING SOME SLIGHT
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
- BREEZY AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
- DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY, WITH AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
- ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW LOOKS MORE LIKELY
HEADING IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY, WITH SOME ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.
- FAIR AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR NEXT WEEK AND
THANKSGIVING DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
OUR LATEST RAIN-MAKER STORM SYSTEM HAS OPENED UP INTO A OPEN
WAVE, AND IS BEGINNING TO ROTATE UP AND OUT OF OUR REGION, TO THE
NE. AS IT DOES, THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY, MOISTURE AND
DYNAMICS WILL LIFT OUT OF OUR REGION. HOWEVER, WE WILL KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR MOSTLY ISOLATED DEVELOPING SHOWERS AND EVEN A STORM
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. IN ADDITION, WE ARE SQUEEZING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENTS, WITH THE RESULT BEING A BREEZY TO MARGINALLY WINDY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TODAY. WSW TO W WINDS OF 20-30+ MPH
ARE EXPECTED. DUE TO THE RAINFALL OVERNIGHT, NOT EXPECTING MUCH,
IF ANY, DUST.
TOMORROW WILL BE AN "IN BETWEEN" DAY, AS ONE SYSTEM HAS DEPARTED
AND THE NEXT IS YET TO ARRIVE. WE WILL SIT UNDER A DEEP SW FLOW,
WITHIN THE BACKSIDE OF S MINOR SHORTWAVE RIDGE. WE WILL SEE THE
DRIER AIR BACK IN, WITH COOL, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, AND
LIGHTER WINDS. SATURDAY ALSO LOOKS TO BE A DRY DAY ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND, AS THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM SLOWLY SWINGS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN BAJA TO OUR WEST. WITH SURFACE TROUGHING, ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER LOW, TO OUR WEST, WE WILL SEE SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE GAINS ON SW SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF THE STORM'S ARRIVAL,
LATE SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM ITSELF WILL ALSO PICK UP MOISTURE OFF
THE PACIFIC AND GULF OF CALIFORNIA, AS IT TRACKS TOWARD OUR
REGION. OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT, INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL TURN EAST, AND TRACK ACROSS S AZ, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AREAS, AND SPREAD EAST
TOWARD SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE MODELS PAINT IT NOW, IT APPEARS THE
BEST WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA WILL BE BETWEEN 9PM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 3PM SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ANOTHER "WARMISH" ONE, WITH SNOW LEVELS STRUGGLING TO DROP BELOW
8000FT ELEVATION. THIS STORM APPEARS TO "ACT" A LOT LIKE OUR
CURRENT STORM, WITH MOISTURE/QPF FAVORING W AND N AREAS, WITH OUR
S AND E AREAS THE DRIEST. PCPN TOTALS FALL WITHIN THE 1/4-1/3"
NORTH, AND 1/10"-TRACE SOUTH. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LOW AS THE
MODELS NOW SEE THIS SYSTEM.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION, BY LIFTING OUT TO THE NW
LATER IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY, AND CLEARS OUT THE REGION OVERNIGHT BY
MONDAY MORNING. WE WILL FALL UNDER A DRY NW FLOW REGIME FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. THE PATTERN WILL KEEP A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S., WITH RIDGING OVER THE E PAC/W COAST. THUS, WE WON'T SEE ANY
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVING IN OFF THE W COAST, AS THE STORM TRACK
GETS BUMPED NORTH. AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON
WED, WE LOOK TO SEE A SIDE/BACK DOOR HYBRID FRONTAL INTRUSION FROM
THE N AND E, BUT IT DOESN'T BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR, AND THE
PASSAGE WILL BE DRY, SO REALLY INCONSEQUENTIAL. THANKSGIVING DAY
LOOKS LIKE A FAIR WEATHER DAY, WITH DRY AND NEAR SEASONAL
CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 449 PM MST THU NOV 20 2025
THE UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT RAIN, WIND AND A LITTLE
HAIL AND SNOW TO THE AREA IS MOVING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST TONIGHT.
WE WILL SEE THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND THE GUSTY WEST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO COME DOWN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. FOR
TONIGHT AND MOST OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY, WE WILL HAVE UNLIMITED
CEILINGS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1041 AM MST THU NOV 20 2025
OUR CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE
REGION, AS IT OPENS UP AND TRACKS NE INTO COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE REGION GOT WIDESPREAD WETTING RAIN OVERNIGHT,
WITH THE GILA SEEING 0.50" TO 1.00", THE SACS GETTING 0.25-0.75",
AND THE LOWLANDS SEEING A WIDE RANGE, WITH N AND W AREAS GETTING
OVER 0.50" UP TO 1.00", AND SOUTHERN AREAS LESS. STILL SOME RAIN
CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON, BUT LIMITED AND LIGHT AMOUNTS REMAIN.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DAYS BETWEEN STORMS, WITH A DEEP SW
FLOW PATTERN AND WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. THIS MEANS FAIR WEATHER, WITH
COOL, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, DRY CONDITIONS, BUT ELEVATED RH,
AND LIGHTER WINDS.
SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY, THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO SWING ACROSS THE REGION. WE WILL SEE INCREASED MOISTURE
FROM BOTH THE SW (WITH THE SYSTEM) AND THE SE, AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM. ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER, AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL, WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER,
AND ELEVATED RH VALUES. THIS SECOND STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT LATER
IN THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH A DRIER, AND CONTINUED COOL, NW FLOW
RETURNING OVER THE REGION, BEHIND THE DEPARTING STORM.
FOR NEXT WEEK, WE SEE PERSISTENT RIDGING OVER THE E PAC/W COAST.
THIS MEANS A STRING OF FAIR WEATHER AND NO PASSING STORM SYSTEMS.
THE STORM TRACK WILL GET SHOVED WELL TO OUR NORTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN "COOLISH" AND NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT, AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY STAYING AT 30 PERCENT OR HIGHER. NO
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 41 69 49 / 80 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 36 68 44 / 80 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 58 35 64 42 / 80 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 58 35 65 41 / 90 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 42 26 47 29 / 90 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 56 37 60 42 / 90 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 54 35 57 37 / 90 0 0 0
DEMING 61 36 66 41 / 80 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 58 36 62 40 / 60 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 43 68 49 / 80 0 0 0
DELL CITY 64 33 68 45 / 80 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 67 39 75 47 / 70 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 54 39 61 43 / 90 0 0 0
FABENS 64 37 72 46 / 80 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 36 66 45 / 70 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 59 41 66 47 / 90 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 58 32 65 42 / 80 0 0 0
HATCH 60 33 68 42 / 90 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 39 68 44 / 70 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 56 34 65 43 / 80 0 0 0
MAYHILL 57 30 56 34 / 80 0 0 0
MESCALERO 53 29 59 32 / 80 0 0 0
TIMBERON 50 28 54 32 / 90 0 0 0
WINSTON 52 27 55 31 / 90 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 56 36 60 39 / 90 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 56 31 63 40 / 90 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 55 30 58 33 / 90 0 0 0
HURLEY 55 33 59 37 / 80 0 0 0
CLIFF 59 33 65 39 / 80 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 55 32 60 36 / 70 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 54 36 59 39 / 90 0 0 0
ANIMAS 61 35 63 40 / 50 0 0 0
HACHITA 59 33 62 38 / 60 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 35 63 39 / 40 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 56 39 58 40 / 50 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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