733
FXUS64 KEPZ 221138
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
438 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY EAST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING, MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK LEADING INTO
THANKSGIVING DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2025
OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER IS THE UPPER LOW STILL SITTING WELL OFF
THE NORTHERN BAJA COAST. WELL OUT AHEAD OF IT IS THE SUB-TROPICAL
JET WITH THIN WISP OF LAYERED MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. THE
UPPER LOW LOOKS TO HAVE TURNED THE CORNER AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEAST BY MID-DAY SATURDAY. BY THE TIME
THE LOW REACHES FAR SOUTHERN ARIZONA SATURDAY EVENING, ENOUGH
MOISTURE (PWS APPROACHING .50 INCH) MOVES INTO THE WEST TO SUPPORT
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, MAINLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. LIKELY DRY-SLOTTING WILL QUICKLY END ANY CHANCE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF ZONES SUNDAY MORNING, BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES. AND THE
MODELS SHOW A LAGGING SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW, WHICH HAS MOVED TO COLORADO, SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD
KEEP A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER THE GILA/BLACK RANGE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD
REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, 8000 FT OR HIGHER, THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
PRECIP WINDOW. THESE ELEVATIONS COULD SEE 1-2 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AHEAD...THE UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS THE
REGION AND UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY BUILDS IN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY AND EVENTUALLY DRIFTS OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
BEFORE FLATTENING OUT ZONALLY THURSDAY-FRIDAY. THIS MEANS MOSTLY
CLOUD FREE DAYS, UNTIL ZONAL FLOW LIKELY BRINGS HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE TO THE AREA THURSDAY-FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEASONABLE UNTIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WHEN TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...MODELS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ANOTHER
PACIFIC SYSTEM AND CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF IN DECENT
AGREEMENT GIVEN HOW FAR OUT WE STILL ARE FROM NEXT WEEKEND. SYSTEM
LIKELY TO SPILL SOME CANADIAN COLD AIR DOWN, BUT ECMWF SNOW
LEVELS (WBZ TEMPS) LOOK TOO LOW AT 4500-5000 FT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH ESE SURFACE FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING PACIFIC LOW. SKIES FEW-SCT250 THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SURFACE WINDS 080-110 AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. LLJ LEADING TO STRONGER
GUSTS AFTER SUNSET, ESPECIALLY ALONG WEST SLOPES. MOUNTAINTOP
WINDS 30 TO 35 KNOTS TONIGHT, WHICH MAY NEED A LLWS MENTION AT
KELP. CLOUD COVERAGE INCREASING QUICKLY AFTER 03Z TONIGHT, WITH
SCATTERED SHRA OVER S NM AND FAR W TX AFTER 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST TODAY, BUT FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN
LOW DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND RECENT WETNESS. MIN RH 30-40%.
EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FAIR VENTILATION.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING
FURTHER WETTING TO MOUNTAIN FORESTS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST 10 TO 15 MPH ON SUNDAY AS CONDITIONS
BECOME DRY AGAIN. GOOD VENTILATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. REST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH MIN RH 25-35%, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES, AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 50 66 44 65 / 40 20 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 66 37 60 / 20 10 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 60 36 61 / 60 10 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 42 62 30 60 / 60 40 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 31 41 24 41 / 60 50 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 42 58 38 62 / 70 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 38 50 33 55 / 80 20 0 0
DEMING 41 61 37 64 / 50 10 0 0
LORDSBURG 41 58 35 57 / 70 20 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 49 64 44 62 / 40 20 0 0
DELL CITY 42 68 35 65 / 30 20 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 73 41 68 / 20 10 0 0
LOMA LINDA 45 60 38 57 / 40 20 0 0
FABENS 48 68 40 65 / 30 10 0 0
SANTA TERESA 45 63 39 62 / 40 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 49 63 41 63 / 50 20 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 44 61 29 62 / 70 20 0 0
HATCH 44 63 31 65 / 70 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 44 64 41 64 / 40 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 62 30 60 / 60 30 0 0
MAYHILL 34 54 30 55 / 50 50 0 0
MESCALERO 34 52 27 52 / 60 60 0 0
TIMBERON 33 50 26 50 / 60 40 0 0
WINSTON 32 51 28 57 / 80 20 0 0
HILLSBORO 40 58 34 62 / 70 10 0 0
SPACEPORT 41 60 27 61 / 70 20 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 34 50 26 58 / 80 30 0 0
HURLEY 38 53 33 58 / 70 20 0 0
CLIFF 41 57 28 61 / 80 30 0 0
MULE CREEK 38 52 24 57 / 80 40 0 0
FAYWOOD 40 53 35 59 / 70 20 0 0
ANIMAS 42 60 37 60 / 70 10 0 0
HACHITA 39 60 35 60 / 50 10 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 61 34 62 / 40 10 0 0
CLOVERDALE 42 52 37 56 / 70 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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