180
FXUS64 KEPZ 230454
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
954 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 953 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY EAST WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- SNOW SHOWERS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
INTO THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. INITIAL TROUGH
FROM THE LOW WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT NOW IN SE ARIZONA, WITHIN A
AN HOUR TO TWO FROM ENTERING SW NEW MEXICO. FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN SE ARIZONA WITH THE FRONT AND JUST NOW MOVING
INTO THE NM BOOTHEEL. LATEST HRRR LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS
SOLUTION, MAYBE AN HOUR SLOW, BUT WILL TAILOR GRIDS AND TAFS WITH
THIS SOLUTION. LOOKS LIKE CAMS WANT TO LIMIT THE SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST OVER THE LOWLANDS TO THE WINDOW RIGHT AT THE FRONT AND 1-3
HOURS BEHIND IT. FRONT TO SVC-DMN 07Z-08Z, LRU-ELP 11Z-12Z, AND
EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 16Z. THAT SHOULD BE IT FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLAND PRECIP FOR THIS EVENT (FROPA AND 1-3 HOURS BEHIND IT), BUT
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE OVER GRANT, SIERRA AND NORTHERN OTERO
COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATE AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THESE NORTHERN CWA
AREAS. SNOW LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER TO TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 8500 FT GILA/BLACK RANGE AND ABOVE 9000 FT SACS. SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 8000 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
ABOUT OVER. THUS 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE AT THESE ELEVATIONS.
UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY FOR RAPID CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA. DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING AS EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD GIVE US VERY NICE WEATHER FOR THE WORK WEEK
WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS-PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND LOOK MORE UNSETTLED AS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH, CULMINATING IN A LARGE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN
NEAR OUR AREA. STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AS GFS KEEPS
THE LOW WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO (WINDY PATTERN), WHILE THE ECMWF
DIGS THE LOW DOWN TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO (SHOWERY
PATTERN). THIS ALL FOR SUNDAY WHICH IS STILL JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
WEST OF THE RG VALLEY...INCREASING BKN100 LAYERS TO FL300 WITH
SCATTERED BKN050 5-7SM -SHRA, AND AN ISOLATED OVC040CB -TSRA.
THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE RG VALLEY FROM 10Z-14Z,
AND THEN ENDING EAST OF THE RG VALLEY AROUND 16Z. FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS COULD SEE LIGHT SNOW BUT MOSTLY 9000-10,000 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHERN GRANT, SIERRA, AND NORTHERN OTERO COUNTIES WITH SNOW
LEVELS FALLING AS LOW AS 8000 FT.
SURFACE WINDS EAST/SOUTHEAST 10-15G25 KNOTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
AND WEST/SOUTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE FRONT EXPECTED
TO BE TO THE RG VALLEY BY AROUND 12Z AND EAST OF THE CWA BY
AROUND 16Z. LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR SOUTHEAST 35-40 KNOTS OVER THE
COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AT AROUND 020 FT
FROM UNTIL AROUND 12Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1031 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND
EXPECTED RAIN SHOWERS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
MIN RH 30-40%. EAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH FAIR
VENTILATION. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING,
BRINGING FURTHER WETTING TO MOUNTAIN FORESTS.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST 10 TO 15 MPH ON SUNDAY AS CONDITIONS
BECOME DRY AGAIN. GOOD VENTILATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. REST OF NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH MIN RH 25-35%, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES, AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 67 43 65 41 / 0 20 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 66 37 60 34 / 0 10 10 0
LAS CRUCES 61 35 61 34 / 0 40 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 61 33 60 32 / 0 50 50 0
CLOUDCROFT 41 24 42 26 / 0 60 60 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 59 38 61 37 / 0 80 20 0
SILVER CITY 50 33 56 32 / 0 80 50 0
DEMING 62 35 63 33 / 0 50 10 0
LORDSBURG 57 35 58 32 / 0 80 40 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 64 43 63 40 / 0 20 10 0
DELL CITY 69 35 65 32 / 0 10 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 40 67 38 / 0 10 10 0
LOMA LINDA 59 37 56 37 / 0 20 20 0
FABENS 69 39 65 36 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA TERESA 63 37 61 35 / 0 20 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 63 39 63 39 / 0 40 20 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 30 61 28 / 0 60 30 0
HATCH 63 32 64 31 / 0 70 20 0
COLUMBUS 63 39 64 37 / 0 40 10 0
OROGRANDE 62 32 59 31 / 0 40 30 0
MAYHILL 53 29 56 31 / 0 50 50 0
MESCALERO 52 27 53 28 / 0 60 70 0
TIMBERON 49 26 50 26 / 0 50 50 0
WINSTON 51 27 58 27 / 0 90 20 0
HILLSBORO 58 34 62 36 / 0 80 20 0
SPACEPORT 59 28 60 27 / 0 70 30 0
LAKE ROBERTS 50 24 58 25 / 0 90 50 10
HURLEY 53 32 58 31 / 0 70 40 0
CLIFF 56 28 61 30 / 0 90 60 0
MULE CREEK 51 25 58 24 / 10 90 60 0
FAYWOOD 53 34 59 35 / 0 80 30 0
ANIMAS 59 38 60 35 / 0 70 30 0
HACHITA 59 35 60 32 / 0 50 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 61 34 63 35 / 0 50 10 0
CLOVERDALE 52 35 56 37 / 10 80 30 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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