710
FXUS64 KEPZ 231121
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
421 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 349 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND GUSTY EAST WINDS TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING, MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- SNOW SHOWERS FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8000 FEET ON SUNDAY WITH
LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES.
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
INTO THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 953 PM MST SAT NOV 22 2025
UPPER LOW NOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. INITIAL TROUGH
FROM THE LOW WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT NOW IN SE ARIZONA, WITHIN A
AN HOUR TO TWO FROM ENTERING SW NEW MEXICO. FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS IN SE ARIZONA WITH THE FRONT AND JUST NOW MOVING
INTO THE NM BOOTHEEL. LATEST HRRR LOOKS PRETTY GOOD WITH THIS
SOLUTION, MAYBE AN HOUR SLOW, BUT WILL TAILOR GRIDS AND TAFS WITH
THIS SOLUTION. LOOKS LIKE CAMS WANT TO LIMIT THE SHOWERS FURTHER
EAST OVER THE LOWLANDS TO THE WINDOW RIGHT AT THE FRONT AND 1-3
HOURS BEHIND IT. FRONT TO SVC-DMN 07Z-08Z, LRU-ELP 11Z-12Z, AND
EAST OF THE CWA BY AROUND 16Z. THAT SHOULD BE IT FOR MOST OF THE
LOWLAND PRECIP FOR THIS EVENT (FROPA AND 1-3 HOURS BEHIND IT), BUT
SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE OVER GRANT, SIERRA AND NORTHERN OTERO
COUNTIES INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND
SECONDARY TROUGH ROTATE AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THESE NORTHERN CWA
AREAS. SNOW LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER TO TONIGHT SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 8500 FT GILA/BLACK RANGE AND ABOVE 9000 FT SACS. SNOW
LEVELS LOWER TO 8000 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
ABOUT OVER. THUS 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE AT THESE ELEVATIONS.
UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY FOR RAPID CLEARING ACROSS THE CWA. DRY WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO PERSIST INTO THANKSGIVING AS EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE BUILDS
NORTHWARD. THIS SHOULD GIVE US VERY NICE WEATHER FOR THE WORK WEEK
WITH SEASONABLE HIGH TEMPS-PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND LOOK MORE UNSETTLED AS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVES MOVE THROUGH, CULMINATING IN A LARGE UPPER LOW DROPPING DOWN
NEAR OUR AREA. STILL SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES AS GFS KEEPS
THE LOW WELL NORTH OF NEW MEXICO (WINDY PATTERN), WHILE THE ECMWF
DIGS THE LOW DOWN TO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO (SHOWERY
PATTERN). THIS ALL FOR SUNDAY WHICH IS STILL JUST BEYOND THE
CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
VMC EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ISO TO SCT RAIN SHOWERS
THROUGH 15Z AT ALL TERMINALS. ISO RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR KTCS, NO MENTION IN
TAF AFTER 15Z DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE. SKIES WILL BE SCT TO BKN AT
6-10 KFT ACCOMPANYING VICINITY SHOWERS. SKIES WILL BECOME FEW TO
SCT AT 10-15 KFT DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT
3-7 KNOTS AND VRB THIS MORNING, BECOMING WEST AT 8-13 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 18-23 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL PROMOTE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY, WITH SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN. MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ABOVE 30
PERCENT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS, ABOVE 50 PERCENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHERN
NM, AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR WEST TX. WINDS WILL BE BEST
WEST AT 8-15 MPH WITH FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE VENTILATION RATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 43 65 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 37 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 61 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 33 60 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 24 42 26 47 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 38 61 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 33 56 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 35 63 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 35 58 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 63 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 65 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 40 67 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 37 56 37 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 39 65 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 37 61 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 63 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 30 61 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 32 64 31 66 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 39 64 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 32 59 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 29 56 31 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 53 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 26 50 26 54 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 58 27 58 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 34 62 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 28 60 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 24 58 25 62 / 10 0 0 0
HURLEY 32 58 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 28 61 30 66 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 25 58 24 62 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 59 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 38 60 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 35 60 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 34 63 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 35 56 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page