516
FXUS64 KEPZ 231652
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
952 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 950 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
- ISOLATED RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS AND BREEZY WEST
WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING, MOSTLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
- DRY WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK
INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 950 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
AN UL LOW OVER NW AZ WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER FOR
TODAY, BUT IMPACTS WILL BE MINOR NAMELY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITH PERHAPS A CLAP OF THUNDER. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
BE LIMITED TO AREAS NORTH OF I-10 AND WEST OF I-25 WITH A DRY
SLOT COVERING THE REST OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LOW-END BREEZY
THIS AFTERNOON AS A H500 JET PASSES OVER NORTHERN CHIHUAHUA AND
HUDSPETH COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONAL.
THIS UL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NE INTO THE PLAINS BY MONDAY
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH COVERING THE CONUS. UL RIDGING OVER THE
PACIFIC WILL GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST LEAVING THE CWA WITHIN DRY,
NW FLOW ALOFT FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS FINALLY
REACHES THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY THURSDAY. UL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE OVER BY FRIDAY IN THE FORM OF A S/W. IMPACTS FROM THIS
INITIAL S/W WILL BE VERY MINOR WITH SOME MILD BREEZES.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REACH THEIR PEAK. THANKSGIVING AND BLACK
FRIDAY LOOK RATHER PLEASANT WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THE S/W TROUGH'S
PASSAGE ON FRIDAY, LOWERING HIGHS FOR SATURDAY. THE WEAK S/W IS
JUST A SIGNAL FOR A PATTERN CHANGE GOING INTO NEXT WEEK AS A LONG
WAVE TROUGH SETS UP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS LEADING TO MORE
UNSETTLED AND POTENTIALLY FRIGID WEATHER AS WE FINISH OUT NOVEMBER
AND ENTER DECEMBER.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 950 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN050-250 ACROSS DMN AND TCS
WITH FEW-SCT050-250 FOR LRU AND ELP. SHOWERS/-RA MAY BE ONGOING
BY 18Z AT TCS, BUT OTHERWISE, PROB FOR PRECIP IS AOB 20% FOR DMN
AND TCS AND ALMOST NIL FOR LRU AND ELP. ANY PRECIP WILL BE OVER BY
SUNSET. WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE BREEZY, FROM THE WSW TO W WITH
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A FEW GUSTS OF
20 TO 25 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AFTER SUNSET THOUGH PERHAPS A
LITTLE SLOWER AT ELP GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE FRANKLIN MTNS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 950 AM MST SUN NOV 23 2025
THE FIRE RISK WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST, IF NOT
ALL, OF THE ACTIVITY DISSIPATED BY SUNSET. A CLAP OF THUNDER
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY THIS AFTERNOON TOPPING
OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE REST OF THE
PERIOD WILL FEATURE GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS.
MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE 35 TO 45 IN THE LOWLANDS
ONLY FALLING TO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S BY MID-WEEK. VENT
RATES WILL BE GOOD TO VERY GOOD TODAY BUT WILL ONLY RANGE POOR TO
FAIR FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 64 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 35 60 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 34 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 33 60 34 63 / 20 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 24 42 26 47 / 20 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 61 36 61 / 20 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 30 57 31 61 / 20 0 0 0
DEMING 34 63 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 33 58 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 63 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 33 65 31 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 39 67 36 70 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 36 57 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 37 65 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 37 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 40 63 40 66 / 20 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 31 61 31 64 / 20 0 0 0
HATCH 32 65 32 66 / 20 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 39 64 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 32 60 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 28 57 30 60 / 20 0 0 0
MESCALERO 26 53 27 58 / 20 0 0 0
TIMBERON 25 52 26 56 / 20 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 58 27 59 / 20 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 33 62 35 63 / 20 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 30 60 30 62 / 20 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 26 59 26 63 / 20 0 0 0
HURLEY 30 59 30 61 / 20 0 0 0
CLIFF 30 62 27 66 / 20 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 58 28 63 / 20 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 32 59 34 61 / 20 0 0 0
ANIMAS 35 60 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 34 60 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 33 63 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 35 57 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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