292
FXUS64 KEPZ 250419
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
919 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 855 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
- DRY WEATHER, WITH FEW CLOUDS, NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES, AND
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS TODAY THROUGH THE ENTIRE WORK WEEK,
INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.
- WE WILL SEE A COOLING TREND STARTING THIS WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ARRIVE SUNDAY, WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 855 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
WE WILL HAVE A QUIET WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY, BUT THEN WE
WILL HAVE MORE ACTIVE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO THE START OF NEXT
WEEK. CURRENTLY WE HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER WESTERN
MISSOURI AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE JUST OFF THE COAST OF
CALIFORNIA. THIS WILL GIVE US A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP OUR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEAR ZERO, BUT IT WON'T ALLOW FOR ANY QUICK WARM UPS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL RUN JUST A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. THEN FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY
WEATHER, BUT IT WILL ALLOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO JUMP 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A PATTERN CHANGE
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES AND DEEPER TROUGHS MOVE IN
OUR DIRECTION. INITIALLY A PAIR OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS, ONE ON
SATURDAY AND ONE ON SUNDAY WILL DASH ACROSS THE REGION, HAVING
LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. BY SUNDAY EVENING THOUGH, A MUCH
DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE GETTING ORGANIZED SOMEWHERE NEAR
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THERE IS ARE STILL SOME SIGNIFICANT STRENGTH
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF.
FOR NOW THERE IS A CHANCE (20 TO 40%) OF LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST STARTING LATE SUNDAY NIGHT (WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE) AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY. STILL WAY TO
EARLY TO START TALKING ABOUT PRECIPITATION TOTALS. IT WILL BE
INTERESTING TO SEE HOW THIS WEATHER PATTERN EVOLVES AS WE GO
THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 855 PM MST MON NOV 24 2025
OUR QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY ON
TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE UNLIMITED CEILINGS
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MST MON NOV 24 2025
THERE ARE MINIMAL TO NO FIRE CONCERNS FOR THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
EACH DAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL START
OFF SEASONAL BUT WILL WARM TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL BY THIS
WEEKEND. MORNINGS WILL BE CHILLY WITH MODERATE TO STRONG
RECOVERIES. AFTERNOON RH MINIMUMS WILL ONLY DROP TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S WHILE WINDS STAY LIGHT. VENTING WILL RANGE POOR TO FAIR,
IMPROVING TO FAIR TO GOOD BY THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO SOME INCREASE
IN WINDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 68 40 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 64 34 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 64 33 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 64 32 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 47 23 44 28 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 36 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 34 59 35 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 66 34 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 62 34 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 42 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 68 32 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 70 37 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 59 37 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 67 37 67 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 65 36 63 36 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 66 41 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 64 31 62 31 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 66 31 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 67 37 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 62 34 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 60 25 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 58 25 56 30 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 56 24 51 28 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 59 27 58 29 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 63 36 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 62 29 61 30 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 62 29 61 31 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 62 32 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 66 31 66 32 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 64 30 64 32 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 61 36 59 36 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 64 33 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 64 32 63 31 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 65 33 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 38 61 38 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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