485
FXUS64 KEPZ 260415
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
915 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 841 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
- DRY WEATHER, WITH FEW CLOUDS, MILD TEMPERATURES, AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK, INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 841 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HOLDS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE TIME.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN WED-THU, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TURKEY DAY. FAIR SKIES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO IMPACTFUL
WEATHER UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DIVES DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY,
REACHING OUR AREA THAT NIGHT. THE COLD AIR/WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE THAT SIGNIFICANT HEADING INTO SUNDAY, SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH
STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL US. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WEST
SLOPES OF MTNS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO GET PAST THE
RGV. TEMPERATURES FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS NW FLOW REMAINS.
IT SEEMS LIKE THE STORM TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO GIVE US
MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH
LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WE'LL SEE IF THIS TROUGH DEEPENS AND BRINGS IN ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO BRING LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MTN SNOW. THE HIGH-END
SCENARIO (10% CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS) GIVES THE SACS ABOUT 6" OF
SNOW AND AROUND 0.5" OF LOWLAND RAIN (NO SNOW). MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO (NBM MEDIAN) IS WE STAY DRY WITH MONDAY'S SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 841 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN
AOB 6KTS MOSTLY FROM E UNDER MAINLY SKC.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 944 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY AND
DRY NORTHWEST TO EVENTUALLY WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET
WEATHER OVER THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THAT PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BEING WARMEST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE WITH GOOD
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD DURING THE DAY.
THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION. LONGER RANGE MODELS REMAIN
VARIABLE ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE SYSTEM, KEEPING THE
FORECAST VERY UNCERTAIN. TWO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT SEEM LIKELY ARE
TEMPERATURES AND WINDS. AN ARCTIC PUSH OF COLD IS EXPECTED MAKE IT
AT LEAST PART WAY INTO THE AREA BY SUNDAY, SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER
LOCAL TEMPERATURES. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE BREEZY BY
SUNDAY WHICH MAY CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. CHANCES FOR PRECIP REMAIN
UNCERTAIN, BUT WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN, SNOW LEVELS WILL MUCH
BE LOWER SHOULD PRECIP OCCUR.
A
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 40 66 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 33 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 33 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 31 61 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 23 44 27 50 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 60 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 33 59 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 34 64 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 33 62 31 65 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 64 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 32 62 30 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 36 69 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 36 59 38 62 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 36 66 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 35 63 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 63 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 27 61 28 64 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 31 64 30 67 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 36 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 33 61 33 64 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 26 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 25 55 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 23 51 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 25 57 26 59 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 35 61 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 29 61 30 63 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 27 61 29 65 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 31 59 32 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 29 66 27 69 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 27 63 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 34 59 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 31 64 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 31 62 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 64 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 37 60 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 66 41 69 46 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 61 35 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 61 34 64 40 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 61 33 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 44 28 50 30 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 37 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 58 35 61 39 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 64 35 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 62 33 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 63 42 66 48 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 61 31 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 68 38 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 58 39 63 43 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 66 37 70 46 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 62 36 65 43 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 62 41 65 46 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 31 64 39 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 63 31 66 40 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 64 37 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 61 33 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 60 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 55 30 60 33 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 51 29 56 32 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 57 28 58 33 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 61 36 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 60 30 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 61 30 64 35 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 59 33 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 66 31 68 38 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 63 30 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 58 36 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 63 33 65 38 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 62 32 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 34 65 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 60 38 63 44 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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