940
FXUS64 KEPZ 261343
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
643 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
..NEW UPDATE, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 552 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
WEAK EASTERLY PUSH OVERNIGHT BROUGHT A FEW LOWER CLOUDS INTO THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT THESE ARE ALREADY STARTING TO BURN OFF.
WEBCAMS AT MAYHILL SUGGEST CLOUDS ARE LOW ENOUGH THAT THERE COULD
BE A FEW SPOTS OF FOG/FREEZING FOG IN PLACES, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD
OR TERRIBLY IMPACTFUL.
OTHERWISE, MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES THE NEXT
SEVERAL NIGHTS AS THE NBM FAILS TO CAPTURE LOCALIZED AREAS WITH
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING.
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 552 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
- DRY WEATHER, WITH FEW CLOUDS, MILD TEMPERATURES, AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK, INCLUDING THANKSGIVING DAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY SUNDAY WITH A LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 841 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2025
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK, TRANQUIL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST AS
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HOLDS IN PLACE MUCH OF THE TIME.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN WED-THU, ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM TO A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TURKEY DAY. FAIR SKIES AND GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO IMPACTFUL
WEATHER UNTIL THE WEEKEND.
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT DIVES DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS ON SATURDAY,
REACHING OUR AREA THAT NIGHT. THE COLD AIR/WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED
TO BE THAT SIGNIFICANT HEADING INTO SUNDAY, SINCE THE SURFACE HIGH
STAYS OVER THE CENTRAL US. GUSTY WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG WEST
SLOPES OF MTNS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STRUGGLES TO GET PAST THE
RGV. TEMPERATURES FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS NW FLOW REMAINS.
IT SEEMS LIKE THE STORM TRACK WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO GIVE US
MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK, ALTHOUGH
LREF GUIDANCE SHOWS A DECENT UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON
MONDAY. WE'LL SEE IF THIS TROUGH DEEPENS AND BRINGS IN ENOUGH
MOISTURE TO BRING LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MTN SNOW. THE HIGH-END
SCENARIO (10% CHANCE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS) GIVES THE SACS ABOUT 6" OF
SNOW AND AROUND 0.5" OF LOWLAND RAIN (NO SNOW). MOST LIKELY
SCENARIO (NBM MEDIAN) IS WE STAY DRY WITH MONDAY'S SYSTEM.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 552 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT
EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS, AS AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS
BROUGHT EASTERLY FLOW TO THE AREA WITH NO DISCERNIBLE BACKDOOR
FRONT. STEADIEST WINDS WILL BE AT DMN, UP TO 10 KNOTS AROUND MID-
MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL AGAIN TONIGHT, WITH
CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 552 AM MST WED NOV 26 2025
QUIET CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAIN
FIRE WEATHER CONCERN WILL BE LIMITED MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIGHT
WINDS, WHICH WILL YIELD POOR VENT RATES FOR MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY
AND THURSDAY. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY OUTSIDE THE
TULAROSA BASIN AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER. WEEKEND PRECIP
CHANCES HAVE DISSIPATED. A FAST MOVING TROUGH WILL BRING A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN NORTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY, AND WE'RE HANGING ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR PRECIP AS IT PASSES THROUGH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 69 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 42 65 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 64 38 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 34 65 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 50 35 48 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 38 62 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 61 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 35 67 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 64 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 41 66 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 27 67 33 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 36 73 41 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 38 63 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 37 70 42 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 39 65 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 65 44 68 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 28 64 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 30 66 34 70 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 36 67 39 71 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 38 64 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 35 61 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 33 60 33 59 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 32 56 31 56 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 31 58 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 38 63 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 33 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 25 64 24 63 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 33 63 36 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 29 68 31 68 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 25 65 26 65 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 37 61 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 33 65 38 70 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 36 64 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 31 65 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 38 63 42 63 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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