433
FXUS64 KEPZ 111145 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
445 AM MST THU DEC 11 2025
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 425 AM MST THU DEC 11 2025
- NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
- DRY CONDITIONS WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, WITH
TEMPERATURES COOLING ABOUT 7-10 DEGREES SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST WED DEC 10 2025
LARGE SCALE PICTURE REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED AS UPPER HIGH
PERSISTS OVER EASTERN PACIFIC AND/OR NORTHERN MEXICO THROUGH THE
MID PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. UPPER RIDGE STRONGEST THROUGH SATURDAY
WITH VERY FEW IF ANY CLOUDS, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES.
NEXT DEVELOPING CANADIAN UPPER LOW RIDES OVER THE TOP OF
AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, EVENTUALLY REACHING THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS PRODUCES A MODERATE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT, RESULTING IN STRONG PRESSURE SURGE DOWN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING SOME BREEZY WINDS
TO WEST SLOPES OF TERRAIN SUCH AS THE GUADALUPE, HUECO, FRANKLIN
MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, AND EVENTUALLY OUT TO LUNA AND
HIDALGO COUNTIES BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT SOME GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH DURING THIS PERIOD. DECENT COLD ADVECTION WITH 850MB TEMP
CHANGES SUGGESTING COOLING OF 10 DEGREES OR MORE FROM SATURDAY TO
SUNDAY, THOUGH VARIOUS MOS OUTPUTS SHOW LESS COOLING. IT REMAINS
TO BE SEEN YET WHETHER THIS FRONT CAN GENERATE LOW CLOUDINESS
AND\OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACS. LOW-LEVEL RH
FIELDS ON MODELS SHOW THIS POTENTIAL SUNDAY MORNING BUT A LITTLE
EARLY YET TO MAKE THAT CALL.
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NON-IMPACTFUL PATTERN CONTINUING,
THOUGH THE GFS/ECMWF BOTH SHOW WEAK UPPER LOW CUTTING THROUGH THE
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING. LITTLE OR
NO MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE. TEMPERATURES RECOVERING BACK TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST THU DEC 11 2025
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 425 AM MST THU DEC 11 2025
A REGIME OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL FOSTER DRY CONDITIONS
AND TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES FOR A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. MINRH THIS AFTERNOON WILL SETTLE IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE
MOST AREAS AMONGST LIGHT, TERRAIN-INFLUENCED WINDS. CONDITIONS
WILL DRY FURTHER ON FRIDAY, WITH CRITICAL RH FAVORING THE GILA NF,
SPREADING IN COVERAGE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACS AND THEIR
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ON SATURDAY.
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, SHIFTING
WINDS EASTERLY AND BRINGING AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE. SUNDAY MINRH
WILL STAY IN THE 20 PERCENT RANGE FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES
BUT ZONES FURTHER EAST WILL SEE AFTERNOON RH IN THE 30 TO 40
PERCENT RANGE. WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME GUSTY WITH AND IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 35 MPH ACROSS
THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN. HIGHER HUMIDITY WILL STICK AROUND
MONDAY BEFORE A STOUT DRYING TREND TAKES HOLD. TUESDAY WILL SEE
CRITICAL RH RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE GILA AND SACS, INCREASING IN
COVERAGE TO NEARLY ALL LOWLAND ZONES ON WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 72 41 72 41 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 68 37 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 68 36 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 69 34 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 53 31 51 27 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 68 37 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 68 39 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 73 36 74 36 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 70 38 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 69 42 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 71 33 72 32 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 73 38 75 37 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 66 41 64 38 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 71 37 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 68 37 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 70 42 70 41 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 69 30 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 72 34 72 34 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 39 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 68 31 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 63 35 67 28 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 65 33 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 61 31 60 28 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 66 31 67 31 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 68 40 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 68 28 67 32 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 69 29 68 33 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 70 37 69 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 74 29 73 35 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 71 25 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 68 40 69 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 72 38 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 70 36 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 73 39 74 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 69 45 69 44 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...99
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