987
FXUS64 KEPZ 131127
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
427 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
- COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE EAST SUNDAY MORNING, BRINGING
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GUSTY EAST
WINDS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG MOUNTAIN WEST SLOPES SUNDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1005 PM MST FRI DEC 12 2025
IN THE BIG PICTURE, THE PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE SHORT TERM VARIOUS MODELS DO SHOW THE HIGH
LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOCAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA TO MOVE OVER THE CWA
NEXT 4-8 HOURS, LIKELY GIVING BROKEN CIRRUS. 850MB TEMPS UNCHANGED
FOR SATURDAY FROM TODAY'S RECORD/NEAR-RECORD HEAT, BUT HIGH CLOUDS
LIKELY WILL CUT A COUPLE OF DEGREES OFF FOR SATURDAY.
ONLY SIGNIFICANT FEATURE TO TALK ABOUT IS THE MODERATE BACK-DOOR
COLD FRONT MOVING IN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DECENT WIND
GUST POTENTIAL, ESPECIALLY ALONG WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING TO MID DAY FROM DONA ANA COUNTY EAST, AND THEN OUT
OVER LUNA AND HIDALGO COUNTIES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY MORNING
WIND CHILL TEMPERATURES COULD BRIEFLY DROP DOWN AROUND 25-40 DEG.
AS WINDS REACH THE LORDSBURG PLAYA AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BLOWING
DUST COULD ALSO DEVELOP ALONG I-10 WEST OF LORDSBURG. OTHER ITEM
TO WATCH IS HOW MUCH STRATUS/FOG/DRIZZLE CAN DEVELOP ALONG THE
EASTERN UPSLOPE AREAS OF THE SACS. LOOKING AT MODEL LOW-LEVEL RH
AND HREF CLOUD COVER WOULD SUGGEST THIS EXACT SET UP SUNDAY
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, BUT AS OF YET THE NBM/GRIDS DO NOT
REFLECT THIS. WILL SUGGEST NEXT SHIFT POSSIBLY MODIFY THIS. HIGH
TEMPS SUNDAY/MONDAY MUCH COOLER THAN THE RECENT SEVERAL DAYS,
THOUGH TEMPS STILL ABOVE NORMAL. SUNDAY HIGHS COULD BE A BIT LOWER
THAN WHAT THE VARIOUS MOS OUTPUTS SHOW.
WEAK UPPER LOW DOES CUT THROUGH THE RIDGE AND OVER THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, PERHAPS WITH JUST AN INCREASE OF HIGHER
CLOUDS.
REST OF THE WEEK..TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES
THOUGH VERY STRONG JET ENTERING THE NW U.S. WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE
OUT INTO ZONAL FLOW OVER OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP TO
WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND IN FACT BY WED-FRI, DAILY HIGHS COULD BE
REACHING RECORD LEVELS AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD WITH SKIES SCT-BKN250 TODAY. SURFACE
WINDS 280-330 AOB 6 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. FROPA FROM THE EAST
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY MORNING. MOUNTAINTOP GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS AFTERNOON, WITH MIN RH 15-25%.
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS AND POOR VENTILATION TODAY.
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE EAST/NORTHEAST SUNDAY MORNING,
SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AND COOLING TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY.
RH INCREASING DUE TO THE COOLER WEATHER, BUT CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN DRY. MORE WARM AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED NEXT WEEK, AS
TEMPERATURES REBOUND BACK TO NEAR RECORD WARMTH. PREVAILING WEST
WINDS NEXT WEEK WITH BETTER VENTILATION (FAIR TO GOOD EACH
AFTERNOON).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 41 63 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 34 54 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 60 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 33 61 31 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 26 47 28 48 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 61 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 38 60 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 37 64 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 39 62 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 44 60 40 61 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 34 57 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 37 63 36 67 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 37 53 35 57 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 39 62 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 38 59 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 43 61 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 32 61 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 33 64 30 64 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 39 62 38 61 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 35 59 27 59 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 26 56 31 63 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 27 58 30 59 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 27 53 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 29 57 29 61 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 60 36 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 31 60 26 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 32 62 28 65 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 35 61 33 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 34 69 29 69 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 35 66 23 66 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 39 59 37 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 38 63 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 37 61 34 61 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 62 34 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 60 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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