460
FXUS64 KEPZ 140501
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1001 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1001 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
- COLD FRONT ARRIVING FROM THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING, DROPPING TEMPERATURES ABOUT 8 TO 15 DEGREES SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. GUSTY EAST WINDS UP TO 35 MPH ALONG WEST SLOPES OF
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY MORNING.
- DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS AGAIN BY THE MID PORTION
OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
ONE LAST DAY OF RECORD/NEAR-RECORD TEMPS BEFORE WE REVERT BACK TO
COOLER WEATHER FOR A FEW DAYS. AGAIN, AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR
QUITE AWHILE, THE EASTERN PACIFIC/DESERT SOUTHWEST UPPER RIDGE
WILL MOSTLY REMAIN INTO MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. IN THE SHORT TERM, THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESSING WEST. FRONT SHOWS UP
WEAKLY ON IR IMAGERY AND COMBINED WITH SURFACE OBS, EXTENDS FROM
ABOUT RATON-VAUGHN-CARLSBAD. THIS IS MOSTLY A WIND SHIFT WITH VERY
LITTLE AIRMASS DIFFERENCE. THE COLD AIR AND DEVELOPING STRATUS
RESIDE FURTHER EAST WITH THE LEAD EDGE FROM CLAYTON-TUCUMCARI
EASTWARD. HRRR/GFS/NAM12 ALL IN GOOD TIMING AGREEMENT, BRINGING
THE FRONT (WIND SHIFT) TO THE EASTERN SACS IN THE NEXT 1-2
HOURS; THEN OVER THE RG VALLEY BY 06-08Z AND OUT TO THE ARIZONA
BORDER BY 15Z. WINDS WILL INCREASE JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE
STRONGEST CORRIDOR OF WINDS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SILVER CITY-LAS
CRUCES-TIMBERON FROM 06Z-18Z. WEST SLOPES OF TERRAIN IN THIS
GENERAL AREA COULD SEE GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. SOME STRATUS/FOG
SHOULD FORM ALONG THE EASTERN SACS OVERNIGHT AS THE AIRMASS COOLS
AND SATURATES. DON'T EXPECT ANY DRIZZLE IN THIS AREA AND CLOUDS
SHOULD BURN OFF/DISSIPATE BY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER THING
TO WATCH...GUSTY WINDS WEST OF LORDSBURG COULD STIR UP SOME PLAYA
DUST SUNDAY MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE LOOKS LIKE A QUIET FORECAST PERIOD AFTER SUNDAY. WEAK
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER SOCAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA WILL SWEEP
THROUGH, BRINGING HIGH CLOUDINESS IN SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY, BUT STILL JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
STRONG JET ENTERS THE NW U.S. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FLATTENING
OUT THE UPPER RIDGE INTO A ZONAL FLOW. THUS EXPECT A RAPID WARMUP
TUESDAY, BUT ESPECIALLY WED-SAT, WITH HIGHS BACK TO NEAR RECORD-
LEVELS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1001 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
GENERALLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT180 SCT-BKN250.
DEVELOPING ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AFT
08Z...SCT-BKN030 PATCHY 3SM BR. THESE CLOUDS MOSTLY DISSIPATING
AFTER 18Z. SURFACE WINDS BEHIND INCOMING COLD FRONT INCREASING TO
EAST/NORTHEAST 10-15 KNOTS AFTER 08Z. AREAS ALONG WEST SLOPES OF
TERRAIN COULD GUST TO 30 KTS. PATCHY BLDU POSSIBLE WEST OF
LORDSBURG DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS DIMINISHING TO EAST/SOUTHEAST
8-12 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1005 AM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
TODAY WILL BE THE LAST REAL WARM DAY UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
AS A FAIRLY STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES FOR SUN/MON TO BE ABOUT 5-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
RECENT DAYS WITH EAST WINDS OF 10-20 MPH. RH'S WILL ALSO BE
HIGHER IN THE 25-50% RANGE THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL
START TO WARM BACK UP TOWARDS RECORD HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH RH'S RETURNING TO THE TEENS AND 20S. POOR TO LOW END
FAIR VENT RATES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 62 39 64 41 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 55 33 60 37 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 60 34 61 34 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 61 31 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 29 48 31 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 61 37 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 61 37 63 37 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 64 35 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 63 37 65 34 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 60 41 62 41 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 56 29 61 32 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 62 37 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 53 35 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 62 37 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 60 36 61 36 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 39 63 41 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 25 63 25 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 65 31 65 30 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 63 38 63 38 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 60 25 61 28 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 57 32 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 58 30 59 32 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 54 29 56 31 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 57 29 62 29 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 61 37 64 37 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 61 25 62 25 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 64 24 66 27 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 61 34 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 69 23 70 27 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 66 19 67 22 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 60 37 62 37 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 63 36 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 61 35 63 32 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 63 35 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 61 39 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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