012
FNUS74 KEPZ 142046
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR BACA PIT RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
146 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0600 MST ON DECEMBER 15.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
..CORRECTION TO ADD HOURLY VENT RATES
DISCUSSION
A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY, BUT LIGHT WINDS
AND STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO POOR VENTING. WINDS WILL BE
TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH BACKGROUND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST WITH
SPEEDS UNDER 5 MPH. SMOKE TRANSPORT WILL GENERALLY BE TO THE EAST
BUT WITH SOME VARIABILITY. SKIES WILL LARGELY BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR
SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES IN
THE MID TEENS. TUESDAY WILL FEATURE SOME INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS,
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR FAIR VENT RATES.
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 59.
MIN HUMIDITY........16 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......4900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 MPH SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST 7 TO 10 MPH IN THE LATE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1700 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........52 52 52 43 43 43 28 28 28 19 19 19
WEATHER COV.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............33 33 36 42 48 53 57 58 59 56 53 48
RH..............45 45 40 33 26 21 18 17 16 18 21 25
20 FT WIND DIR..SW SW SW W W W W W W NW NW NW
20 FT WIND SPD..2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
20 FT WIND GUST.5 5 5 7 7 7 10 10 10 12 12 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.9
TRANSP WIND DIR.SW SW SW SW W W W W NW NW NW NW
TRANSP WIND SPD.6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 10 10 10 10
VRATE KT-FT/1K..2 2 1 0 3 11 20 32 39 39 21 9
VENTRATE CAT....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
MONDAY NIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (10-20 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 28.
MAX HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS.
MIXING HEIGHT.......300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 10 TO 11 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2600 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........26 26 17 8 8 4
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............41 38 35 33 32 31
RH..............33 38 43 47 51 51
20 FT WIND......NW 2 NW 2 W 2 W 2 W 2 W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.8 8 7 6 6 5
MIX HGT (FT)....300 300 300 300 300 300
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 10 NW 10 NW 11 NW 11 NW 11 NW 11
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 3 3 3 3 3
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
TUESDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (0-10 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 54.
MIN HUMIDITY........18 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST 6 TO 7 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 12 TO 20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (9800 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (48600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........3 4 6 7
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............28 35 52 51
RH..............58 43 21 20
20 FT WIND......W 2G8 NW 4G14 NW 7G16 NW 6G15
MIX HGT (FT)....800 800 2600 2400
TRANSPORT WIND..NW 12 NW 12 NW 20 NW 18
VRATE KT-FT/1K..10 10 49 46
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR FAIR FAIR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
WEDNESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS AROUND 60. LIGHT
WINDS.
THURSDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S.
LIGHT WINDS.
FRIDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT
WINDS.
FORECASTER...BROWN
REQUESTED BY...PATRICK VALENTINE
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2527617.0/EPZ
.DELDT 12/14/25
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL PATRICK.VALENTINE@USDA.GOV,DUSTIN.ROPER@USDA.GOV,RANDALL.CHAVEZ@USDA.GOV,FRANCESCA.CHAVEZ@USDA.GOV
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