841
FXUS64 KEPZ 150457
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
957 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 956 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
- DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGN OF RAIN CHANCES.
- COOL AGAIN MONDAY BEHIND TODAY'S COLD FRONT.
- RAPID WARMUP TUESDAY AND BEYOND, WITH NEAR-RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 956 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT OUT TO THE ARIZONA BORDER BACK
EARLIER TODAY, LEAVING BEHIND A COOLER AIRMASS FOR TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. OVERALL DRY PATTERN TO CONTINUE WITH EASTERN PACIFIC
RIDGE TO BE REPLACED BY MODERATE ZONAL FLOW BY WEDNESDAY AS VERY
STRONG JET STREAM MOVES INTO NW U.S., FLATTENING THE RIDGE.
IN THE SHORT TERM, WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER NEVADA AND FAR SE
CALIFORNIA IS DRAWING UP HEALTHY BATCH OF HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
FROM THE SUB-TROPICS. THIS IS ALREADY SPREADING HIGH CLOUDS TO THE
AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS
THE TROUGH SWEEPS EAST OF THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE
ONLY OTHER FORECAST ELEMENT TO TALK ABOUT ARE THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGH CLOUDS AND THE COOL POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WILL CONSPIRE TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE MONDAY, THOUGH STILL ABOVE
NORMAL. RAPID WARMUP BEGINS TUESDAY AS THE FLOW GRADUALLY
TRANSITIONS TO ZONAL FLOW. BY THURSDAY, RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
ARE POSSIBLE, AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 956 PM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH INCREASING SCT180 BKN250. SURFACE
WINDS AOB 7 KNOTS BECOMING MOSTLY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST 7-10 KNOTS AFTER
18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 954 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT PUSHED INTO THE AREA WITH WINDS E-NE WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ALONG WEST SLOPES. WINDS SUBSIDE DURING THE
DAY AND THIS EVENING. COOLER TEMPS TODAY WILL RESULT IN HIGHER
RHS DURING THE DAY. NO PRECIP IS FORECAST WITH ONLY VARIABLE
HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL BY MIDWEEK AS LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL.
FUELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER THAN NORMAL FOR MID-DEC DUE TO THE DRY
PATTERN AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THIS WEEK. MIN RHS RANGE FROM
25-45% THROUGH MON, 15-25% IN FWZ110; THEN 12-25% BY WED. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR TO FAIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 63 40 68 39 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 60 37 64 36 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 59 34 65 35 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 61 32 66 31 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 49 31 48 29 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 62 36 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 63 37 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 64 34 71 34 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 65 35 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 61 41 66 39 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 59 30 69 29 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 66 38 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 57 39 59 39 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 63 37 68 34 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 59 36 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 61 41 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 61 31 66 28 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 65 30 69 32 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 62 37 71 37 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 59 30 63 30 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 63 36 62 32 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 59 32 59 31 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 55 31 58 30 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 60 30 64 31 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 63 37 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 62 26 65 29 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 65 27 65 27 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 63 34 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 70 25 71 26 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 67 22 67 23 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 61 37 67 39 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 66 36 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 63 33 69 34 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 64 37 72 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 66 44 67 42 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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