674
FXUS64 KEPZ 160021
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
521 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 518 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
- SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY, THEN A RAPID WARMUP AFTER TUESDAY.
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER SEVENTIES WILL BE NEAR DAILY RECORDS
FOR MID DECEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
THE CONUS REMAINS ENTRENCHED WITH A RIDGE WEST / TROUGH EAST
PATTERN, WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR WHAT FEELS LIKE FOREVER. TO
MIX THINGS UP A LITTLE, WE HAVE A S/W TROUGH TRAVERSING THE DESERT
SW. IT IS QUITE MOISTURE STARVED, BUT IT IS PRODUCING AN AREA OF
HIGH CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. WE REMAIN WITHIN THE EDGE OF A COLDER
AIR MASS, SO HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.
THE S/W TROUGH WILL EXIT THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING, TAKING THE CLOUDS WITH IT. A VERY SLOWLY DEEPENING TROUGH
OVER THE PACIFIC WILL BEGIN A VERY SLOW TRANSITION TO OUR WEATHER
PATTERN AS FLOW BECOMES ZONAL ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS WILL SEND
TEMPERATURES TO NEAR RECORD TERRITORY WITH THE WARMEST DAY
PROJECTED TO BE ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. CHRISTMAS LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH THE
25TH PERCENTILE ALREADY WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NBM.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 518 PM MST MON DEC 15 2025
WE WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CLOUDS AND
HIGH CEILINGS WE SAW MUCH OF THE DAY HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
AND WE WILL HAVE UNLIMITED CEILINGS FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WINDS TONIGHT WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AND THE WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL ALSO BE LIGHT. THE ONE
EXCEPTION MAY BE KDMN, WHERE THEY MAY HAVE A FEW HOURS WILL LOW
END GUSTY WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST MON DEC 15 2025
A DRY PATTERN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. THIS AFTERNOON'S MIN RH WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES, BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER
30S. WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEGINNING FOR TUESDAY, WHICH WILL
PUSH MIN RH VALUES INTO THE MID TEENS. THAT WILL REMAIN THE CASE
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK AS WILL WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR AFTER TODAY.
AS MENTIONED, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN 10 MPH
EACH AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP VENTING IN THE POOR TO FAIR
CATEGORY MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
WILL HELP FOSTER FAIR TO GOOD VENT RATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 70 38 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 35 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 66 34 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 32 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 47 29 50 34 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 65 35 66 41 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 65 37 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 71 33 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 68 32 67 35 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 68 38 67 43 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 70 26 68 32 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 34 71 39 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 61 37 61 41 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 69 32 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 67 32 66 36 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 40 67 44 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 66 30 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 70 32 70 34 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 72 36 70 42 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 64 32 64 34 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 62 31 65 39 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 58 30 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 57 29 59 33 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 64 30 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 68 38 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 65 31 66 34 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 65 30 66 33 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 68 34 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 70 31 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 68 31 67 33 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 68 37 67 41 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 70 36 70 38 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 70 33 70 37 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 72 35 72 39 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 67 42 66 43 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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