296
FXUS64 KEPZ 161650
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
950 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 945 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
- WE WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
THEN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES WILL BE NEAR DAILY
RECORDS FOR MID DECEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE UL S/W TROUGH THAT BROUGHT US CLOUDS YESTERDAY IS EXITING
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING. BEHIND IT, NW FLOW WILL
RESUME, BRINGING BACK OUR MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS. A FEW RECORDS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY
FALL FOR THE WEEK AHEAD. THE NW FLOW WILL BECOME MORE ZONAL BY
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE THE PACIFIC RIDGE VERY SLOWLY STARTS
TRANSLATING EAST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE
ALIGNED OVER NM AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
PACIFIC. PERHAPS BY THE LAST WEEK OF DECEMBER OR FIRST WEEK OF JANUARY,
OUR STREAK OF WARM, DRY, TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL BREAK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SKC-FEW250. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 937 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL FEATURE NEAR RECORD WARMTH, SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DIP WELL INTO THE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOPPING OUT UNDER 10 MPH FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP VENT RATES POOR IN THE LOWLANDS
WITH FAIR TO GOOD IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN GILA
WHERE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 40 69 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 36 64 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 35 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 32 66 35 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 30 50 34 51 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 36 66 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 38 65 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 34 72 37 71 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 67 35 69 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 39 66 43 69 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 29 69 31 71 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 35 71 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 40 61 41 64 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 35 69 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 34 66 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 68 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 30 66 33 68 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 32 71 35 71 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 38 71 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 33 64 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 33 65 40 65 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 32 61 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 30 58 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 30 66 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 39 69 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 32 66 34 67 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 26 66 34 68 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 35 68 36 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 28 70 32 72 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 32 67 33 69 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 39 67 41 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 37 71 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 34 70 37 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 72 38 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 66 42 68 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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