387
FXUS64 KEPZ 170503
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1003 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 832 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
- DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEK AHEAD WITH NO RAIN CHANCES
INTO THE CHRISTMAS HOLIDAY.
- WE WILL HAVE WARMER TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
THEN EVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND.
LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID SEVENTIES WILL BE NEAR DAILY
RECORDS FOR MID DECEMBER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 832 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO OUR WEST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR
EAST IS GIVING US A DRY NORTH OR NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE NEW
MEXICO. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY SO WE WON'T
SEE ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RUN 10 TO 15
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. FOR THE WEEKEND, WE WILL HAVE A ZONAL WEST
FLOW ALOFT, SO THAT WILL CONTINUE OUR DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM US
UP EVEN MORE, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE. WE WILL THREATEN RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEK. THE
REASON FOR THE CONTINUED VERY WARM WEATHER TO START NEXT WEEK, IS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT WILL SETTLE INTO SOUTH TEXAS. THE RIDGE
WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO CONTINUE OUR DRY CONDITIONS AND KEEP OUR
HIGH TEMPERATURES RUNNING 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. NO WHITE
CHRISTMAS IN THE FORECAST FOR US, WE WILL BE DRY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO RUN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 832 PM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP OUR CEILINGS UNLIMITED
TONIGHT AND ALL DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, OUR WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AND THEN THE LIGHT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY, BUT THEY WILL COME AROUND TO THE WEST. THE UNLIMITED
CEILINGS AND LIGHT WINDS LOOK TO CONTINUE WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 937 AM MST TUE DEC 16 2025
THE NEXT FIVE DAYS WILL FEATURE NEAR RECORD WARMTH, SUNNY OR
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DIP WELL INTO THE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WILL BE VERY LIGHT, TOPPING OUT UNDER 10 MPH FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THIS PATTERN WILL KEEP VENT RATES POOR IN THE LOWLANDS
WITH FAIR TO GOOD IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN GILA
WHERE WINDS WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 69 41 72 42 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 65 40 69 38 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 66 36 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 66 35 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 51 34 50 34 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 66 40 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 65 39 67 40 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 71 37 72 36 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 67 34 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 66 43 69 43 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 69 31 71 32 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 71 39 74 38 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 61 42 64 42 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 69 39 72 38 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 66 36 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 68 44 69 45 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 66 33 68 35 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 71 35 71 35 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 70 43 72 40 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 64 34 67 37 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 66 39 65 37 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 61 35 61 35 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 58 32 61 33 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 67 37 64 33 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 69 42 68 42 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 66 34 67 34 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 65 33 67 36 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 68 37 68 37 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 71 31 71 33 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 67 35 69 35 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 67 42 68 41 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 70 37 70 39 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 69 37 70 36 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 72 39 73 40 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 66 43 68 44 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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