278
FXUS64 KEPZ 041719
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1019 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 946 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS.
- PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
YESTERDAY'S RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS FLATTENED AND SHIFTED MORE
TO THE EAST TODAY, RESULTING IN A DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED OVER THE REGION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. DRY CONDITIONS
WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW IS TAPPING MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC FOR AN INCREASE IN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
CROSS THE STATE.
WHILE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS WILL OCCUR AGAIN TODAY, A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INDUCE SURFACE LEE
TROUGHING IN EASTERN COLORADO THAT WILL TIGHTEN THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASE WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30
MPH WILL PREVALENT MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONGER GUSTS EXPECTED
IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND THE BLACK RANGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE LOWER ON TUESDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AS WEATHER
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE UNSETTLED WITH THE APPROACH OF A PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM. MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH THE TIMING AND PATH THE
SYSTEM WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN
MODELS. MOST RECENT MODEL DATA HAS THE STORM SYSTEM PUSHING
MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF IT LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR A
CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST
WITH THE NATIONAL BLEND DATA NOT QUITE CAUGHT UP TO CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS AND PREDICTING PRECIPITATION TOO EARLY ON LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
BEST CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL START EARLY THURSDAY
TO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION AS AN OPEN LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE 7500 FEET WILL BE THE MAIN
IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM. MODELS PROJECT A SECONDARY SYSTEM TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE STATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. THIS SECONDARY SYSTEM WILL ALSO
BRING IN MUCH COLDER AIR TO THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES OF MID TO UPPER 50S FOR THE LOWLANDS BY
FRIDAY. COOLER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH
MODELS ARE TRENDING DRIER. WITH THE COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE,
SOME OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES OF THE WINTER SEASON MAY OCCUR
OVERNIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE AREA.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MID-HIGH
CLOUDS STREAM OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY WITH CIGS AS LOW AS 15KFT
AND SOME CLEARING LATE IN THE PERIOD. WINDS REMAIN AOB 8KTS MAINLY
FROM W-SW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, 20-FT WINDS STAY BELOW 10 MPH, SHIFTING W-SW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE
20-30% RANGE. HIGHER CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD WITH NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY, LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS,
RESULTING IN BREEZIER AFTERNOON WINDS TO 10-15 MPH FROM THE W AT
20 FEET. DRY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF FWZ113, OTHERWISE MIN RHS WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. LIGHTER WINDS FOR TUE, THEN INCREASING A BIT FOR
WED/THU AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOW RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUE,
THEN COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE
POOR TO FAIR TODAY, THEN GOOD TO VERY GOOD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 69 42 67 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 45 68 41 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 39 64 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 39 66 34 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 45 30 44 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 64 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 36 56 33 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 38 66 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 36 61 31 62 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 68 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 36 70 32 67 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 44 73 40 70 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 44 61 40 59 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 42 70 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 41 66 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 47 67 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 34 66 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 36 69 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 42 68 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 39 66 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 39 60 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 34 57 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 33 55 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 59 22 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 65 35 62 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 33 65 30 62 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 56 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 35 60 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 30 62 27 62 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 58 26 58 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 39 60 35 59 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 39 64 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 37 64 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 66 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 41 59 38 58 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...04-LUNDEEN
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