068
FXUS64 KEPZ 050543
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1043 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1041 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS.
- PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. MONDAY WILL BE A
LOW END BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH BUT WINDS QUIET
DOWN ON TUESDAY. STILL TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY BRINGING LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. RUN TO RUN SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH
THE TIMING AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z EC AND 18Z
GFS, THERE'S NOW A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL BE AROUND 8000' FOR THE GILA
REGION/NW PARTS OF THE CWA TO AROUND 8500' IN THE SACS. BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE DROPPED TO 7000' IN THE GILA
REGION AND NOW DOWN TO 7500' IN THE SACS. SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW ARE
AROUND 1-3" FOR THE SACS AND 1-2" FOR THE GILA REGION/BLACK RANGE.
BEST TIME FRAME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AS THE BULK OF THE MAIN ENERGY WILL HAVE
PUSHED OUT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS, EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY THURSDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH. THEREAFTER, IT
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A COLD SHOT OF AIR PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. A LOT COULD STILL CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST, SO MAKE SURE
TO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. VARIABLE SKY COVER THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
BUT ANY CLOUD BASES WILL STAY ABOVE 20,000'. A LOW END BREEZY DAY
CAN BE EXPECTED TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 15-
20KT OUT OF THE WEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 946 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FOR THIS
AFTERNOON, 20-FT WINDS STAY BELOW 10 MPH, SHIFTING W-SW THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS IN THE
20-30% RANGE. HIGHER CLOUDS PASS OVERHEAD WITH NO CHANCE OF
PRECIP. OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
TONIGHT. FOR MONDAY, LEE TROUGHING DEVELOPS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS,
RESULTING IN BREEZIER AFTERNOON WINDS TO 10-15 MPH FROM THE W AT
20 FEET. DRY, DOWNSLOPE FLOW MAY CREATE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF FWZ113, OTHERWISE MIN RHS WILL BE ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. LIGHTER WINDS FOR TUE, THEN INCREASING A BIT FOR
WED/THU AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOW RAIN CHANCES
RETURN BY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH TUE,
THEN COOLING TO NEAR NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK. VENT RATES WILL BE
POOR TO FAIR TODAY, THEN GOOD TO VERY GOOD MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 70 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 45 67 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 38 64 35 63 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 38 66 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 45 30 45 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 64 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 36 56 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 37 66 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 36 61 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 45 67 42 65 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 36 70 32 68 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 43 73 41 70 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 43 61 41 60 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 42 70 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 40 66 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 47 67 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 37 66 32 63 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 36 69 32 65 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 41 68 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 39 66 36 62 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 39 61 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 33 56 29 56 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 33 55 30 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 28 59 26 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 65 36 61 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 32 65 30 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 31 56 28 57 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 35 59 32 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 32 62 29 62 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 32 58 29 58 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 38 61 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 38 64 35 64 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 37 64 33 63 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 66 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 40 59 39 59 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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