281
FXUS64 KEPZ 051144
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
444 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 423 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS.
- PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1041 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2026
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS. MONDAY WILL BE A
LOW END BREEZY DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH BUT WINDS QUIET
DOWN ON TUESDAY. STILL TRACKING AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BEGINNING LATE
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY BRINGING LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. RUN TO RUN SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN SOMEWHAT INCONSISTENT WITH
THE TIMING AND THE TRACK OF THE LOW. ACCORDING TO THE 12Z EC AND 18Z
GFS, THERE'S NOW A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
SOME TIME WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE
CWA WHICH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA INTO THURSDAY. SNOW LEVELS AT
THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENT WILL BE AROUND 8000' FOR THE GILA
REGION/NW PARTS OF THE CWA TO AROUND 8500' IN THE SACS. BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE DROPPED TO 7000' IN THE GILA
REGION AND NOW DOWN TO 7500' IN THE SACS. SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW ARE
AROUND 1-3" FOR THE SACS AND 1-2" FOR THE GILA REGION/BLACK RANGE.
BEST TIME FRAME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE LATE WEDNESDAY
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY AS THE BULK OF THE MAIN ENERGY WILL HAVE
PUSHED OUT. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS, EXPECT A
BREEZY DAY THURSDAY WITH WINDS AROUND 15-25 MPH. THEREAFTER, IT
LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE A COLD SHOT OF AIR PUSH INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. A LOT COULD STILL CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST, SO MAKE SURE
TO STAY TUNED TO FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS AOB 6KTS
PERSIST THIS MORNING, BECOMING SOMEWHAT BREEZY DURING THE
AFTERNOON FROM W. GUSTS TO 20-25KTS EXPECTED FOR KDMN AND KLRU
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTINESS TO UPPER TEENS FOR KELP AND KTCS. WINDS
SUBSIDE TONIGHT. SCT-BKN250 CONTINUE TO PASS BY THROUGH THE DAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 423 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
FOR TODAY, THERE WILL BE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN FWZ113 DUE
TO BREEZY W WINDS AND MIN RHS APPROACHING CRITICAL LEVELS ON THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE MTNS. SURFACE TROUGHING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
WILL INDUCE 20-FT WINDS AROUND 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO
25 MPH, RESULTING IN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF
FWZ113. FORTUNATELY, FUELS REMAIN PRETTY MOIST WITH ERCS NEAR OR
BELOW THE 50% PERCENTILE. WINDS SUBSIDE TONIGHT WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES. LIGHTER WINDS FOR TUE BEFORE
INCREASING INTO THU FROM THE WEST AS A STORM SYSTEM PUSHES
THROUGH. LOW-MEDIUM PRECIP CHANCES (30-60%) ARE FORECAST WED-THU
WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND IMPACTS. LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT-
MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS. TEMPS STAY WARM INTO MIDWEEK, THEN COOLING
TO SEASONABLY COOL LEVELS LATE IN THE WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-40% THROUGH WED, THEN 35-60% FOR THU.
VENTILATION WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TODAY, VERY GOOD FOR MUCH OF
FWZ113; POOR TO FAIR TUE, THEN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 41 68 43 67 / 0 0 0 30
SIERRA BLANCA 41 66 43 67 / 0 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 35 63 37 61 / 0 0 0 20
ALAMOGORDO 33 63 38 64 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 30 45 32 44 / 0 0 0 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 36 60 37 60 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 34 57 36 55 / 0 0 0 20
DEMING 34 65 37 63 / 0 0 0 30
LORDSBURG 33 61 36 59 / 0 0 0 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 42 65 45 64 / 0 0 0 20
DELL CITY 32 68 35 68 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 41 70 42 70 / 0 0 0 30
LOMA LINDA 41 60 43 60 / 0 0 0 20
FABENS 38 68 41 67 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA TERESA 37 64 40 63 / 0 0 0 30
WHITE SANDS HQ 42 64 44 64 / 0 0 0 20
JORNADA RANGE 32 63 35 62 / 0 0 0 20
HATCH 32 65 35 64 / 0 0 0 20
COLUMBUS 38 65 41 63 / 0 0 0 30
OROGRANDE 36 62 40 63 / 0 0 0 20
MAYHILL 33 60 35 59 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 29 56 32 56 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 30 55 32 54 / 0 0 0 20
WINSTON 26 57 29 56 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 36 61 37 61 / 0 0 0 20
SPACEPORT 30 61 33 61 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 28 57 31 55 / 0 0 0 20
HURLEY 32 60 34 58 / 0 0 0 20
CLIFF 29 62 32 60 / 0 0 0 20
MULE CREEK 29 58 33 56 / 0 0 0 20
FAYWOOD 36 60 38 58 / 0 0 0 20
ANIMAS 35 64 38 61 / 0 0 0 30
HACHITA 33 63 36 61 / 0 0 0 30
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 65 38 61 / 0 0 0 40
CLOVERDALE 39 59 42 54 / 0 0 0 50
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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