224
FXUS64 KEPZ 060010
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
510 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 443 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS.
- PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES IN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
TODAY AND TOMORROW... CONDITIONS TODAY ACROSS THE CWA WILL REMAIN
DRY AND COMFORTABLE AS TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE LOWER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY MAY SEE HIGHS INTO THE MID 70S AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS LIKE
THE SACS AND BLACK RANGE MAY SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S INTO MID 50S. SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH SOME CIRRUS
AND OTHER UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN CALM EXCEPT FOR AREAS OF HIGHER ELEVATION,
MAINLY THE SACRAMENTO MTS. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT TODAY WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING 40KTS. HEADING
INTO TOMORROW TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SLIGHTLY,
REMAINING IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS EL PASO AND MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS. WINDS AND GUSTS ACROSS THE SACS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO
DECREASE.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OFF THE PACIFIC COAST IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AND
PROPAGATE TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND BE ABSORBED INTO
AN INCOMING TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
WITH IT LARGE AMOUNTS OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AS WELL AS COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE PRESENT. THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, INTO THURSDAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE FELT IN AREAS WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
AS WELL AS AREAS OF HIGHER ELEVATION. A TRACE AMOUNT OF SNOW IS
ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SACS ON THURSDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS WINDS. THURSDAY IS EXPECTING TO SEE SUSTAINED WINDS
EXCEEDING 20KTS ACROSS MUCH OF LUNA COUNTY AND THE MOUNTAINS OF
SIERRA, GRANT, AND OTERO COUNTIES. WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 35-40KTS
MAY CAUSE BLOWING DUST ALONG I-10.
REST OF THE WEEK... AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE OUT TO OUR EAST WITH COLDER, DRY AIR PUSHING THE REMAINING
MOISTURE OUT OF OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWLANDS AND ELP METRO
WITH THE SAC SEEING TEMPERATURES DROP AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING.
WINDS AS WELL AS GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT WITH THE SYSTEM AND
CALMER CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN. HEADING INTO SATURDAY, A HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDUP TO OUR WEST WILL KEEP CONDITIONS RELATIVELY
UNCHANGED.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 443 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. LOW END BREEZINESS WILL
CONTINUE ANOTHER HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE SACRAMENTO / CAPITAN MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS WHILE
20-FOOT WINDS TOP OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT MIN RH VALUES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH.
SIMILAR RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
VENTING WILL RANGE GOOD TO VERY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO
POOR TO FAIR FOR TUESDAY WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS.
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WIND AND MOISTURE. RAIN/ SNOW CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD. THE
SYSTEMS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 67 45 67 / 0 0 0 30
SIERRA BLANCA 41 66 44 68 / 0 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 36 63 39 62 / 0 0 0 40
ALAMOGORDO 34 63 38 63 / 0 0 0 30
CLOUDCROFT 30 45 32 44 / 0 0 0 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 36 60 37 59 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 34 58 36 54 / 0 0 0 50
DEMING 36 65 39 62 / 0 0 0 50
LORDSBURG 33 62 37 58 / 0 0 0 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 65 46 65 / 0 0 0 30
DELL CITY 33 68 36 69 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 41 70 42 72 / 0 0 0 30
LOMA LINDA 41 60 44 60 / 0 0 0 30
FABENS 39 68 41 68 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA TERESA 37 64 41 63 / 0 0 0 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 42 65 45 64 / 0 0 0 30
JORNADA RANGE 33 63 36 62 / 0 0 0 30
HATCH 33 65 36 64 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBUS 39 65 41 64 / 0 0 0 50
OROGRANDE 36 63 40 63 / 0 0 0 30
MAYHILL 33 61 36 59 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 29 57 32 56 / 0 0 0 20
TIMBERON 30 55 32 54 / 0 0 0 30
WINSTON 26 56 29 56 / 0 0 0 30
HILLSBORO 36 62 37 61 / 0 0 0 30
SPACEPORT 30 61 34 62 / 0 0 0 30
LAKE ROBERTS 29 58 31 54 / 0 0 0 50
HURLEY 33 60 35 57 / 0 0 0 40
CLIFF 30 63 32 59 / 0 0 0 40
MULE CREEK 29 59 32 54 / 0 0 0 40
FAYWOOD 36 60 39 57 / 0 0 0 40
ANIMAS 35 65 39 60 / 0 0 0 60
HACHITA 34 63 36 61 / 0 0 0 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 36 65 38 62 / 0 0 0 70
CLOVERDALE 39 59 41 54 / 0 0 0 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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