696
FXUS64 KEPZ 060538
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1038 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 920 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
- DRY WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TUESDAY
WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IMPACTS.
- PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.
- TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH CHILLY MORNING TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
ONE LAST QUIET DAY TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JANUARY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TUESDAY BEFORE MAKING
"LANDFALL" OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER NW MEXICO AND THE INT'L BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SOME TIME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. PRETTY GOOD
COVERAGE OF LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW CROSSES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST SHOT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE AROUND 1-3" FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK RANGE WITH A DUSTING TO 1" IN LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE GILA. THE SACRAMENTO MTNS LOOK TO GET AROUND 1-3".
SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT AROUND 7500-8000'AND WILL DROP TO
AROUND 6600-7000' IN THE GILA REGION. IN THE SACRAMENTOS, INITIAL
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500' BUT WILL DROP TO AROUND 7000' BY
THE END OF THE EVENT. THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS
(TIMBERON, SUNSPOT, ETC) COULD BE FAVORED FOR BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS
DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OF THIS SYSTEM.
IN ADDITION TO THE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS,
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY BREEZY MORNING AND DAY. THAT MORNING WILL
FEATURE MOSTLY RIDGE TOPS AND SOME EAST FACING SLOPES AS THE
BREEZIEST BUT AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH THAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY VERY BREEZY AFTER SUNSET
BUT AS THE INVERSION SETS UP, RIDGETOPS AND EAST SLOPES WILL BE
FAVORED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NEWEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING
ANOTHER LOW THAT QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE FIRST LOW WHICH COULD
BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE LOW PUSHES
OUT LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS IN BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY MORNING WITH
WEEKEND HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 920 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH DRY
CONDITIONS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW OVER THE AREA WITH
VARYING COVERAGE OVERNIGHT BUT WILL BECOME MORE BKN-OVC BY THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT TOMORROW AOB 10KT OUT
OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1000 AM MST MON JAN 5 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE SACRAMENTO / CAPITAN MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS WHILE
20-FOOT WINDS TOP OUT BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECT MIN RH VALUES IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S WITH WINDS TOPPING OUT IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH.
SIMILAR RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY BUT WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
VENTING WILL RANGE GOOD TO VERY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, DECREASING TO
POOR TO FAIR FOR TUESDAY WITH THE LIGHTER WINDS.
A PAIR OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL PUSH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY,
BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WIND AND MOISTURE. RAIN/ SNOW CHANCES WILL
ALSO INCREASE FOR THIS PERIOD WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP
IN THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING PERIOD. THE
SYSTEMS WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH COOLER/COLDER AIR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 68 45 65 / 0 0 0 30
SIERRA BLANCA 41 66 44 68 / 0 0 0 20
LAS CRUCES 35 63 39 60 / 0 0 0 30
ALAMOGORDO 35 63 39 62 / 0 0 0 30
CLOUDCROFT 30 45 33 43 / 0 0 0 40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 36 60 39 57 / 0 0 0 20
SILVER CITY 35 58 37 52 / 0 0 0 50
DEMING 35 65 39 60 / 0 0 0 40
LORDSBURG 33 61 39 56 / 0 0 0 50
WEST EL PASO METRO 43 66 47 63 / 0 0 0 40
DELL CITY 33 69 37 69 / 0 0 0 10
FORT HANCOCK 40 71 43 71 / 0 0 0 20
LOMA LINDA 41 61 44 60 / 0 0 0 20
FABENS 39 68 42 67 / 0 0 0 30
SANTA TERESA 37 64 42 62 / 0 0 0 40
WHITE SANDS HQ 43 65 46 63 / 0 0 0 20
JORNADA RANGE 33 63 38 60 / 0 0 0 20
HATCH 33 65 37 63 / 0 0 0 30
COLUMBUS 39 65 42 61 / 0 0 0 50
OROGRANDE 37 63 42 62 / 0 0 0 20
MAYHILL 33 61 36 58 / 0 0 0 30
MESCALERO 29 56 33 56 / 0 0 0 30
TIMBERON 30 54 33 53 / 0 0 0 30
WINSTON 25 56 29 54 / 0 0 0 50
HILLSBORO 35 61 38 59 / 0 0 0 50
SPACEPORT 30 61 35 60 / 0 0 0 20
LAKE ROBERTS 30 58 31 52 / 0 0 0 50
HURLEY 33 60 36 55 / 0 0 0 50
CLIFF 30 62 34 57 / 0 0 0 50
MULE CREEK 30 59 33 54 / 0 0 0 50
FAYWOOD 36 59 39 55 / 0 0 0 40
ANIMAS 35 65 41 58 / 0 0 0 60
HACHITA 35 64 39 57 / 0 0 0 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 36 66 39 59 / 0 0 0 60
CLOVERDALE 39 59 41 51 / 0 0 0 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
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