419
FXUS64 KEPZ 061139
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
439 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 430 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
- SCATTERED LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000 FEET.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TWENTIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
ONE LAST QUIET DAY TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, AND
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY JANUARY. AN UPPER LOW WILL
DRIFT SOUTH OFF THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA TUESDAY BEFORE MAKING
"LANDFALL" OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS LOW
WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER NW MEXICO AND THE INT'L BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING SOME TIME WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA. PRETTY GOOD
COVERAGE OF LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS THE LOW CROSSES OVER THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
TIME FRAME WILL FEATURE THE BEST SHOT FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE
GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MTNS.
SNOW TOTALS RIGHT NOW LOOK TO BE AROUND 1-3" FOR THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACK RANGE WITH A DUSTING TO 1" IN LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE GILA. THE SACRAMENTO MTNS LOOK TO GET AROUND 1-3".
SNOW LEVELS WILL START OUT AT AROUND 7500-8000'AND WILL DROP TO
AROUND 6600-7000' IN THE GILA REGION. IN THE SACRAMENTOS, INITIAL
SNOW LEVELS WILL BE AROUND 8500' BUT WILL DROP TO AROUND 7000' BY
THE END OF THE EVENT. THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE SACRAMENTO MTNS
(TIMBERON, SUNSPOT, ETC) COULD BE FAVORED FOR BETTER SNOW AMOUNTS
DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW OF THIS SYSTEM.
IN ADDITION TO THE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS,
THURSDAY WILL BE A VERY BREEZY MORNING AND DAY. THAT MORNING WILL
FEATURE MOSTLY RIDGE TOPS AND SOME EAST FACING SLOPES AS THE
BREEZIEST BUT AS WE APPROACH THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 15-25 MPH THAT
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STAY VERY BREEZY AFTER SUNSET
BUT AS THE INVERSION SETS UP, RIDGE TOPS AND EAST SLOPES WILL BE
FAVORED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NEWEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING
ANOTHER LOW THAT QUICKLY FILLS IN BEHIND THE FIRST LOW WHICH COULD
BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE AREA HEADING INTO FRIDAY. THE LOW PUSHES
OUT LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS IN BEHIND IT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FREEZING OR BELOW SATURDAY MORNING WITH
WEEKEND HIGHS BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
VMC PREVAILING AT LOCAL TERMINALS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SKIES
BEGINNING SCT-BKN250, BECOMING BKN-OVC200 BY 18Z THIS AFTERNOON.
FEW-SCT120 DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. SURFACE
WINDS 230-260 AT 04-08 KNOTS TODAY, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 430 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER TODAY DUE TO LIGHT WINDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10
MPH THIS AFTERNOON WITH VENTILATION REMAINING POOR. MIN RH 25-35%.
SCATTERED LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW BEGINNING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS 1-3" FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000 FEET. WINDS INCREASING THURSDAY/FRIDAY
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, OUT OF THE WEST 15 TO 25 MPH. MUCH COLDER THIS
UPCOMING WEEKEND WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 64 43 61 / 0 70 70 10
SIERRA BLANCA 44 68 40 56 / 0 70 80 10
LAS CRUCES 40 60 37 56 / 0 70 70 20
ALAMOGORDO 39 63 33 56 / 0 70 70 20
CLOUDCROFT 33 44 25 34 / 0 70 70 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 39 57 36 57 / 0 60 60 20
SILVER CITY 37 53 34 46 / 0 70 70 40
DEMING 40 59 38 57 / 0 80 70 20
LORDSBURG 39 56 37 52 / 0 80 70 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 48 64 43 59 / 0 70 70 10
DELL CITY 37 69 39 60 / 0 60 70 10
FORT HANCOCK 43 72 41 63 / 0 70 80 10
LOMA LINDA 44 60 38 53 / 0 70 70 10
FABENS 42 68 41 61 / 0 70 70 10
SANTA TERESA 42 62 41 58 / 0 70 70 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 46 64 42 58 / 0 70 70 20
JORNADA RANGE 38 62 34 58 / 0 70 70 20
HATCH 37 64 36 61 / 0 70 70 20
COLUMBUS 42 62 41 58 / 0 80 70 20
OROGRANDE 41 63 37 58 / 0 70 70 20
MAYHILL 36 58 30 48 / 0 60 60 20
MESCALERO 32 56 27 46 / 0 60 70 20
TIMBERON 33 53 25 44 / 0 60 70 20
WINSTON 30 54 26 50 / 0 50 60 30
HILLSBORO 38 59 34 56 / 0 60 60 20
SPACEPORT 36 61 29 57 / 0 60 70 20
LAKE ROBERTS 32 53 30 46 / 0 70 70 40
HURLEY 36 54 34 50 / 0 70 70 30
CLIFF 34 56 33 53 / 0 70 60 40
MULE CREEK 34 53 33 48 / 0 70 60 50
FAYWOOD 40 56 36 51 / 0 70 70 30
ANIMAS 42 58 36 56 / 0 80 70 20
HACHITA 39 59 36 54 / 0 80 70 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 61 37 55 / 0 90 70 20
CLOVERDALE 41 51 38 49 / 0 90 70 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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