077
FXUS64 KEPZ 062344
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
444 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 348 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
- SCATTERED LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000 FEET.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING FOR MAINLY THE GILA ABOVE 5,500 FEET.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TWENTIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
TODAY AND TONIGHT... THE REGION FINDS ITSELF BENEATH A S/W RIDGE
AHEAD OF A CLOSED LOW OFF THE CA COAST. PLENTY OF HIGH LEVEL
MOISTURE IS MOVING NORTHEAST ON SW FLOW ALOFT, SO EXPECT
INCREASING CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
MILD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BOTH IN TERMS OF A HIGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND LOW TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
PROGRESS RAPIDLY EASTWARD TODAY INTO TOMORROW ACROSS BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND SONORA, PUSHING THE EXIT REGION OF ITS JET TO THE
AZ-NM BORDER BY 21Z WEDNESDAY. BY 6Z THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NM AS IT RAPIDLY ABSORBS INTO THE MAIN FLOW,
OPENING INTO A WAVE AS IT DOES SO. A SMALL DRY SLOT WILL BEGIN
ENTERING SOUTHERN NM BY THIS POINT, WITH MOST PRECIP OVER BY 12Z
THURSDAY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT AND DRY AIR OVERTAKES
THE CWA. FOR THIS FIRST SYSTEM, SNOW LEVELS WILL GENERALLY BE OVER
7000' WITH 1-3" (25TH TO 75TH PERCENTILE) OF SNOW EXPECTED FOR
BOTH THE SACS AND THE GILA THOUGH HIGHER PEAKS OF THE GILA MAY SEE
AS HIGH AS 6" (75TH PERCENTILE). THIS IS JUST BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR BOTH AREAS.
FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY, FLURRIES OR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS LOOK
ONGOING FOR THE GILA WHILE WINDS PICK UP AREA WIDE. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO BE COOLER, ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. FOR MOST
LOCATIONS, WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 MPH WILL BE PRETTY COMMON, BUT WIND
GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR HIGHER LOOK LIKE A PRETTY GOOD BET ACROSS THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS (70%+ CHANCE), SO A WIND ADVISORY WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED IN LATER FORECAST UPDATES.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY... THE GUSTY WINDS FOR THURSDAY ARE
PARTIALLY ATTRIBUTED TO A IMPINGING JET AHEAD OF ANOTHER S/W THAT
WILL KEEP WINDS UP FOR MOUNTAINS AND EAST SLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY BUT WILL ALSO BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF PRECIPITATION TO
MAINLY THE GILA WITH LIGHT RAIN FOR LOWLANDS, MAINLY WEST OF THE
RIO GRANDE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOK HIGHER WITH THIS SECOND ROUND
AS SNOW LEVELS CRASH TO AROUND 6000' OR LOWER. ANOTHER 1-4" LOOKS
CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE GILA WITH ANOTHER INCH OR SO FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS (25TH-75TH PERCENTILE). WITH THE LOWER SNOW
LEVELS, SILVER CITY PROPER LOOKS TO SEE 1-2". I WILL HOLD OFF ANY
PRODUCTS FOR NOW, BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO ISSUE ADVISORIES
FOR THE GILA. EXCEPT MAYBE SOME FLURRIES, PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO
END SOMETIME FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WILL BE EVEN COOLER, DROPPING BELOW
AVERAGE. ADD THE WIND AND IT WILL FEEL EVEN COLDER.
SATURDAY ONWARD... THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL STICK AROUND, WHICH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL TO COLD SIDE FOR THE WEEKEND
AND MONDAY, BUT WINDS WILL GREATLY DECREASE. SKIES WILL BE SUNNY
TO MOSTLY SUNNY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A CUT-OFF LOW FORMING
TO OUR SOUTH. DEPENDING ON HOW THIS LOW EVOLVES, CLOUD COVERAGE
MAY BE ON THE INCREASE FOR MONDAY WITH SUBSEQUENT RAIN CHANCES
PAST THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND THUS SO ARE
PROBABILITIES.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 440 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SCT150 BKN-OVC250. SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z...SCT060 BKN120 OVC200 WITH ISOLATED
BKN050 -SHRA. SHOWERS MAKING IT TO AROUND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS SOUTHWEST 7-10 KNOTS,
BECOMING VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS AFTER 03Z. WINDS INCREASING AGAIN
AFTER 18Z TO SOUTHWEST/WEST 10-15G20 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EAST SLOPE AREAS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL BE SEE
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. BEGINNING TOMORROW, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM, LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
VENTING WILL BE POOR TO FAIR THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO FAIR
TO GOOD ON WEDNESDAY, AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 65 43 61 / 0 60 80 10
SIERRA BLANCA 44 68 39 56 / 0 40 90 10
LAS CRUCES 39 60 37 55 / 0 70 80 10
ALAMOGORDO 38 63 35 56 / 0 60 90 20
CLOUDCROFT 33 44 24 33 / 0 60 90 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 38 57 36 56 / 0 60 70 20
SILVER CITY 37 53 34 45 / 0 80 80 40
DEMING 39 60 39 56 / 0 90 80 20
LORDSBURG 38 57 36 52 / 0 90 80 30
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 64 43 59 / 0 60 80 10
DELL CITY 36 69 39 59 / 0 20 80 10
FORT HANCOCK 43 72 40 63 / 0 50 90 10
LOMA LINDA 43 60 38 52 / 0 50 90 10
FABENS 42 67 40 62 / 0 60 80 10
SANTA TERESA 42 62 39 58 / 0 70 80 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 46 65 42 58 / 0 70 90 10
JORNADA RANGE 38 62 35 56 / 0 70 80 10
HATCH 37 64 36 59 / 0 70 80 10
COLUMBUS 42 62 41 59 / 0 80 80 10
OROGRANDE 41 63 37 56 / 0 60 90 10
MAYHILL 36 59 30 48 / 0 40 80 20
MESCALERO 32 55 26 45 / 0 60 90 20
TIMBERON 33 53 25 43 / 0 50 90 20
WINSTON 30 54 26 47 / 0 70 70 30
HILLSBORO 38 60 34 54 / 0 80 80 20
SPACEPORT 36 60 30 56 / 0 70 80 20
LAKE ROBERTS 32 53 30 44 / 0 80 80 50
HURLEY 36 54 34 49 / 0 80 80 30
CLIFF 33 57 34 51 / 0 80 80 60
MULE CREEK 33 54 32 46 / 0 80 80 70
FAYWOOD 39 56 36 49 / 0 80 80 30
ANIMAS 41 60 37 55 / 0 90 80 20
HACHITA 39 59 36 54 / 0 90 80 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 40 60 36 55 / 0 90 80 10
CLOVERDALE 41 52 37 49 / 0 90 80 20
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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