792
FXUS64 KEPZ 070517
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1017 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 935 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
- SCATTERED LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000 FEET.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TWENTIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
UPPER LOW SPINNING WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA WITH A GOOD SUB-
TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODEL PWS BY WED AFTERNOON INCREASE TO .70-.80 INCHES,
WHICH IS ABOUT DOUBLE NORMAL LEVELS. LOOK FOR A FEW AREAS OF
MODERATE RAIN WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FIRST UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA AND EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SO DON'T
EXPECT MUCH SNOW EXCEPT AT HIGHEST, MOSTLY UNINHABITED PLACES.
POST-TROUGH PASSAGE, SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO FALL NOTICEABLY BUT
PRECIP WILL ALSO BREAK OFF FOR AWHILE. PWS RAPIDLY DECREASE AS WE
PIVOT TO A COLDER, LESS MOIST AIRMASS.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHORT WAVES ACROSS, BUT
SHOULD MOSTLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH THESE SHORT
WAVES; COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVEL FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THIS. WITH SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY FALLING,
ANY PRECIP FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SNOW. HAVE ISSUED SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD START SEEING BRIEF MODERATE SNOW
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST PERIOD OF PRECIP IS ENDING; THEN
SOME MORE MODERATE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER ZONES OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT COULD ADD UP TO 1-3 INCHES. MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE BY
AROUND DAY BREAK FRIDAY. IF IT LINGERS AROUND LONGER, THE SIERRA
CO LOWLANDS COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES, BUT THAT'S A BIG IF AT THIS
TIME.
COLDER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
WEST COAST, ALLOWING COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH SUB-
FREEZING LOW TEMPS MANY LOWLAND SITES OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
VFR FOR MOST OF THE PERIOD...WITH SCT150 BKN-OVC250. SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 18Z...SCT060 BKN120 OVC200 WITH ISOLATED
BKN050 -SHRA. SHOWERS MAKING IT TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY 00Z
AND EAST OF THE VALLEY AFTER 00Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7
KNOTS INCREASING AFTER 18Z TO SOUTHWEST/WEST 10-15G20 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. EAST SLOPE AREAS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS WILL BE SEE
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT. BEGINNING TOMORROW, MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES DECREASE. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE SYSTEM, LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY.
VENTING WILL BE POOR TO FAIR THIS AFTERNOON, INCREASING TO FAIR
TO GOOD ON WEDNESDAY, AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD ON THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 66 44 61 / 0 50 90 10
SIERRA BLANCA 44 68 40 57 / 0 30 80 10
LAS CRUCES 39 61 38 55 / 0 60 90 10
ALAMOGORDO 38 63 36 56 / 0 60 90 20
CLOUDCROFT 32 45 25 32 / 0 50 90 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 38 57 37 55 / 0 70 90 20
SILVER CITY 37 54 34 44 / 0 80 90 60
DEMING 38 60 39 56 / 0 80 90 30
LORDSBURG 37 57 37 52 / 0 90 90 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 65 44 59 / 0 60 90 10
DELL CITY 35 68 40 59 / 0 10 80 0
FORT HANCOCK 43 73 42 63 / 0 40 90 10
LOMA LINDA 44 61 39 53 / 0 40 90 10
FABENS 42 69 42 61 / 0 50 90 10
SANTA TERESA 41 63 40 58 / 0 60 90 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 45 65 42 58 / 0 60 90 10
JORNADA RANGE 37 62 36 56 / 0 60 90 10
HATCH 37 64 38 58 / 0 70 90 10
COLUMBUS 42 62 41 58 / 0 80 90 10
OROGRANDE 41 63 39 57 / 0 50 90 10
MAYHILL 36 59 30 47 / 0 40 80 20
MESCALERO 32 56 27 44 / 0 60 90 30
TIMBERON 32 54 25 42 / 0 50 90 20
WINSTON 29 54 27 46 / 0 70 90 30
HILLSBORO 38 60 34 53 / 0 70 90 20
SPACEPORT 34 61 32 56 / 0 60 90 10
LAKE ROBERTS 29 54 32 43 / 0 80 90 60
HURLEY 35 55 34 48 / 0 80 90 40
CLIFF 28 57 36 50 / 0 80 90 70
MULE CREEK 24 54 35 45 / 0 80 90 80
FAYWOOD 39 56 36 49 / 0 80 90 40
ANIMAS 41 59 38 54 / 0 90 90 30
HACHITA 38 59 37 54 / 0 90 90 20
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 61 37 55 / 0 90 90 20
CLOVERDALE 41 53 37 47 / 0 90 90 30
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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