447
FXUS64 KEPZ 071126
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
426 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 310 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
- SCATTERED LOWLAND RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE 7,000 FEET.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH MODERATE SNOWFALL.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH MORNING
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID TWENTIES ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1016 PM MST TUE JAN 6 2026
UPPER LOW SPINNING WEST OF THE NORTHERN BAJA WITH A GOOD SUB-
TROPICAL TAP OF MOISTURE OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. MODEL PWS BY WED AFTERNOON INCREASE TO .70-.80 INCHES,
WHICH IS ABOUT DOUBLE NORMAL LEVELS. LOOK FOR A FEW AREAS OF
MODERATE RAIN WED AFTERNOON/EVENING AS FIRST UPPER TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CWA AND EAST OF THE AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
SNOW LEVELS REMAINING RELATIVELY HIGH AHEAD OF THE TROUGH SO DON'T
EXPECT MUCH SNOW EXCEPT AT HIGHEST, MOSTLY UNINHABITED PLACES.
POST-TROUGH PASSAGE, SNOW LEVELS WILL BEGIN TO FALL NOTICEABLY BUT
PRECIP WILL ALSO BREAK OFF FOR AWHILE. PWS RAPIDLY DECREASE AS WE
PIVOT TO A COLDER, LESS MOIST AIRMASS.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SHORT WAVES ACROSS, BUT
SHOULD MOSTLY IMPACT THE NORTHERN ZONES THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH THESE SHORT
WAVES; COULD APPROACH ADVISORY LEVEL FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL
LET NEXT SHIFT EVALUATE THIS. WITH SNOW LEVELS RAPIDLY FALLING,
ANY PRECIP FOR THE MOUNTAINS FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY
SHOULD BE SNOW. HAVE ISSUED SNOW ADVISORY FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS COULD START SEEING BRIEF MODERATE SNOW
THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FIRST PERIOD OF PRECIP IS ENDING; THEN
SOME MORE MODERATE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LOWER ZONES OF THE
MOUNTAINS WILL LIKELY JUST SEE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING,
BUT COULD ADD UP TO 1-3 INCHES. MOST PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE BY
AROUND DAY BREAK FRIDAY. IF IT LINGERS AROUND LONGER, THE SIERRA
CO LOWLANDS COULD SEE SOME FLURRIES, BUT THAT'S A BIG IF AT THIS
TIME.
COLDER PATTERN FOR THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
WEST COAST, ALLOWING COLD NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, WITH SUB-
FREEZING LOW TEMPS MANY LOWLAND SITES OVER THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH LIGHT AND VRB WINDS. SKIES WILL BE SCT-BKN AT 10-15
KFT AND BKN-OVC AT 15-20 KFT THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
SOUTHERN NM AND WEST TX THROUGH THE MID AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING TIMEFRAME, WITH PROB30S AT ALL TERMINALS REFLECTING THE
WEST TO EAST MOVEMENT OF -SHRA. VERY LITTLE IMPACTS WILL BE FELT,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LOWERING CIGS. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE DURING
THE EVENING TIMEFRAME WITH GUSTY WINDS (10-15 WITH GUSTS TO 20-25
KNOTS) SETTLING IN ACROSS THE AREA AROUND 06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 AM MST WED JAN 7 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY FROM WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH MIN RH VALUES THIS AFTERNOON ABOVE 30
PERCENT AREAWIDE. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME. AREAS ABOVE 8500 TO
9000 FEET COULD SEE RAIN/SNOW MIX. TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN
ABOVE AVERAGE EAST OF THE DIVIDE, AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST OF THE
DIVIDE. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT 7-15 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. SMOKE
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT
CHANCES OF LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE WEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY,
BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY ON FRIDAY REMAINING GUSTY. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE WITH MIN
RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 61 39 53 / 90 10 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 41 57 36 50 / 90 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 39 55 33 48 / 90 10 50 0
ALAMOGORDO 36 56 28 48 / 90 20 50 10
CLOUDCROFT 25 32 16 26 / 90 30 60 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 54 31 46 / 90 20 60 10
SILVER CITY 34 44 25 40 / 90 70 80 10
DEMING 39 56 33 49 / 90 30 60 10
LORDSBURG 36 53 27 45 / 90 40 80 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 44 59 39 52 / 90 0 30 0
DELL CITY 41 60 34 53 / 90 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 44 63 39 56 / 90 0 20 0
LOMA LINDA 39 53 33 46 / 90 10 30 0
FABENS 42 61 37 54 / 90 0 20 0
SANTA TERESA 41 58 36 51 / 90 0 30 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 42 58 37 51 / 90 10 40 10
JORNADA RANGE 36 56 30 49 / 90 10 50 10
HATCH 38 58 32 52 / 90 10 60 0
COLUMBUS 41 58 36 51 / 90 20 40 10
OROGRANDE 39 57 32 50 / 90 10 40 10
MAYHILL 31 47 22 40 / 80 20 30 10
MESCALERO 28 44 18 36 / 90 30 60 20
TIMBERON 26 42 18 36 / 90 20 40 10
WINSTON 27 46 18 38 / 90 30 60 10
HILLSBORO 35 53 28 47 / 90 30 60 0
SPACEPORT 32 56 26 48 / 90 10 60 10
LAKE ROBERTS 30 43 19 38 / 90 60 80 10
HURLEY 34 48 26 43 / 90 40 80 0
CLIFF 34 50 25 46 / 90 80 80 0
MULE CREEK 33 45 22 42 / 90 80 80 10
FAYWOOD 37 49 29 44 / 90 30 80 10
ANIMAS 36 55 28 47 / 90 30 80 0
HACHITA 36 54 29 46 / 90 20 60 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 55 30 49 / 90 20 50 0
CLOVERDALE 37 47 29 43 / 90 30 60 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR SOUTHERN GILA REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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