642
FXUS64 KEPZ 072351 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
451 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 439 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
- A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 7500 TO
8000 FEET.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM SET TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS OVER THE GILA REGION THURSDAY EVENING.
- PERIODICALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND GILA REGION FRIDAY MORNING, AND NEAR 20 IN THE
DESERT LOWLANDS.
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WITH
COLD MORNINGS. WE WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
RADAR SHOWS ECHOES MOVING INTO LUNA AND WESTERN SIERRA COUNTIES.
MESONET OBSERVATIONS AND WEB CAMS SHOW JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH ACCUMULATION SO FAR CREEPING INTO THE FAR SW NEW MEXICO
LOWLANDS AND THE SILVER CITY AREA. ALL-SKY CAMERA NEAR ROAD
FORKS/COTTON CITY IS WET AS WELL. BEST GUESS IS THAT PRECIP IS
REACHING THE GROUND OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY, THEN MAYBE
JUST WORKING INTO SOUTHERN GRANT COUNTY AROUND SEPAR, WITH VIRGA
OR A FEW SPITS IN SIERRA AND LUNA COUNTIES. THE MORNING SOUNDING
HAD A BIT OF DRY AIR CENTERED AROUND 700 MB, BUT IT WON'T TAKE TOO
LONG TO MOISTEN UP.
18Z HRRR IS DOING A FAIRLY OK JOB WITH ONSET OF PRECIP SO FAR, AND
THERE'S A CHANCE WE COULD SEE SOME DROPS OF RAIN IN THE EL PASO
AREA BEFORE DARK.
STEADY PRECIP WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM SW TO NE AFTER 5 PM,
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
MOVES INTO NORTHERN SONORA AND BEGINS TO WEAKEN INTO AN OPEN WAVE.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A NICE 130 KNOT JET STREAK OVER THE NORTHERN
SIERRA MADRES NOSING TOWARDS ELP BY 00Z THU, WITH STRONG DIFFLUENT
FLOW OVERSPREADING SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
MEANWHILE, COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL BEGIN FILTERING INTO THE AREA.
THE FREEZING LEVEL IS CURRENTLY ABOVE 10,000 FEET IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WITH 34 AT THE SNOTEL (10,2000 FT) NEAR
SIERRA BLANCA PEAK AT NOON, AND 43 AT SUNSPOT (9250 FT). IN THE
GILA, SNOW LEVELS ARE PROBABLY AROUND 9000-9500 FEET. IT'S 39 AT
EMORY PASS PER THE EBID STATION (8300 FT), AND 34 AT A RANCH
NORTH OF MOGOLLON BALDY AT 8300 FEET. SNOW LEVELS QUICKLY DROP
WEST OF THE ARIZONA LINE, WITH 30 DEGREES AT A RAWS NEAR 9500
FEET, BELOW THE SUMMIT OF MOUNT GRAHAM, WHERE IT IS SNOWING ON THE
SUMMIT PER WEBCAMS, AND IT'S SNOWING ON MOUNT LEMMON NORTH OF
TUCSON AT 7800 FEET AS WELL.
GOING FORWARD, SNOW LEVELS APPEAR TO DO THE FOLLOWING:
5 PM: 8000 FEET GILA // 9000 FEET SACRAMENTOS
8 PM: 8000 FEET GILA // 8500 FEET SACRAMENTOS
11 PM: 7500 FEET GILA // 8250 FEET SACRAMENTOS
2 AM: 7000 FEET GILA // 7800 FEET SACRAMENTOS
5 AM: 7000 FEET GILA // 7250 FEET SACRAMENTOS
BUT PRECIP LOOKS TO DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER ABOUT 2 AM, EXCEPT FOR
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS, AS THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS EAST
OF THE AREA, AND DYNAMICS FOR LIFT FALL APART.
WE SHOULD SEE WINDS INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WELL, WITH SOME
LOCALIZED GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 40 MPH. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH FOR A
FEW HOURS AFTER DAYBREAK, THEN SLOWLY RAMP BACK UP THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED ELEVATION-BASED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY, BUT WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY, BUT MOSTLY IN CONSIDERATION
OF BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL, AND TO BRIDGE THE GAP WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM.
THE NBM APPEARS TO BE INCREASINGLY INFLUENCED BY HREF MEMBERS AND
THE NAM WHICH ARE NOTORIOUS FOR SQUEEZING TOO MUCH QPF OUT OVER
THE MOUNTAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW EVENTS LIKE THIS. ESSENTIALLY,
THEY OVERDO OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT. FOR EXAMPLE, THE NAM12 LIQUID QPF
TOTAL THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY IS AROUND 1.10 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE GFS IS AROUND 0.50 INCHES, AND THE
ECMWF RANGING FROM 0.35 TO 0.45 (EXCEPT A HIGHER BULLSEYE OVER
SIERRA BLANCA PEAK). AS FOR THE HREF, THE ARW HAS A WIDE AREA OF
1.25 INCHES OVER THE SACRAMENTOS, WITH 1.52 TO 1.92 IN BULLSEYES
(AGAIN, JUST THROUGH 12Z THU). THE FV3, AROUND 0.85. THE NAM-NEST
SOMEHOW FINDS OVER 2 INCHES, WITH A 3.75 INCH BULLSEYE (LIQUID,
MIND YOU!), AND THE HRRR HAS BEEN PREACHING 1 TO 1.50 INCHES ON
VARIOUS RUNS. AMOUNTS ARE ONLY A LITTLE LOWER IN THE GILA.
FOR THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, WE WENT MUCH CLOSER TO THE GFS AND
ECMWF WITH SOME OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENTS, AND CAREFUL CONSIDERATION
OF SNOW LEVELS. THUS, EXPECT MOST OF THE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
DAYBREAK THURSDAY IN THE GILA WILL FALL ABOVE SILVER CITY, WITH
LIGHT AMOUNTS AT PINOS ALTOS (VILLAGE), AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE
8000 FEET, WHICH INCLUDES THE NM-15 HIGH POINT OVER THE PINOS
ALTOS MOUNTAIN RANGE, AND EMORY PASS (NM-152).
FOR THE SACRAMENTOS, 1 TO 4 INCHES ABOVE 7500 FEET, WITH 2-3
INCHES AT CLOUDCROFT, AND 4 INCHES ABOVE 9000 FEET, AND UNDER AN
INCH AT APACHE SUMMIT. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION AT MOUNTAIN
PARK, HIGH ROLLS, MESCALERO VILLAGE, AND MAYHILL.
AS FOR LOWLAND RAIN, EXPECT ANYWHERE FROM 0.15 TO 0.35 INCHES
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, HIGHER WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL STAY ABOVE SAN AUGUSTIN AND TRANSMOUNTAIN PASSES.
BUT WE'RE NOT DONE THERE.
A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WILL SWEEP INTO ARIZONA THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND ACROSS
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM HAS
BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS DIGGING FURTHER SOUTH IN TIME, AND WHILE NOT
A CLOSED LOW, IT DOES LOOK TO CARRY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT, A NICE LITTLE 100 KNOT JET MAX AT 500 MB, AND SIMILARLY
STRONGER LOW LEVEL WINDS.
THE NAM AND GFS BOTH PRODUCE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM, WITH 150-200 J/KG SBCAPE DEVELOPING OVER THE GILA AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BY 00Z FRI, AND REMAINING STEADY AS THE
SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH. THE SNOW SQUALL PARAMETER DROPS TO AROUND 5
OVER THE GILA THURSDAY NIGHT, AND 5-7 OVER THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. THIS SUGGESTS SPOTTY SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY BECOME HEAVIER AT TIMES LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON, AND
THE INCOMING SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD ARRIVE WITH A BONAFIDE SNOW
SQUALL IN THE GILA ON THURSDAY EVENING.
THE 12Z HREF AND 18Z HRRR AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO, WITH SQUALLY
RAIN/SNOW MIX TRYING TO WORK INTO THE LOWLANDS OF SW NEW MEXICO,
BUT CHANGING TO RAIN AS IT REACHES ELEVATIONS BELOW 5000-5500
FEET.
WHILE WE CONTINUED TO LEAN ON THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR OVERALL QPF
AMOUNTS, ABOUT 0.20 TO 0.35 INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH
THIS SECOND ROUND OF PRECIP, YIELDING ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW (BUT WITH LOWER SNOW LEVELS), MUCH OF THIS SNOW, ESPECIALLY
IN THE GILA, COULD FALL IN THE SPAN OF 60 TO 90 MINUTES, WITH
SNOWFALL RATES PUSHING 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR AT TIMES, WITH WINDS
GUSTING OVER 30 MPH. THIS COULD BE VERY MESSY FOR THE SILVER CITY
AREA THURSDAY EVENING, AND MAY IMPACT THE EVENING COMMUTE THERE
IF THE SYSTEM SPEEDS UP ANY.
RAIN/SNOW WILL TRY TO REACH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT WITH
DEWPOINTS RUNNING HIGH IN THE WAKE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM, THERE'S
LESS CHANCE OF WETBULBING IN THE LOWLANDS. GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL STILL BE A RISK IN THE LOWLANDS THURSDAY
NIGHT, AS THE SQUALLY CONDITIONS TRY TO REACH LAS CRUCES AFTER 8
OR 9 PM.
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY COULD ALSO BE RATHER
WINDY FOR EAST SLOPE LOCATIONS AS A MOUNTAINTOP TEMPERATURE
INVERSION TRIES TO SET UP LATE NIGHT. MIGHT BE PUSHING WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN NE EL PASO AND WSMR MAIN POST.
ANY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON, BUT BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE, ESPECIALLY IN
EXPOSED AREAS (THAT SAW ENOUGH SNOW).
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WILL ALSO ARRIVE BEHIND THE
SECOND SYSTEM. THE WINDS WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS A LITTLE HIGHER
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, BUT WIND CHILL VALUES LOOK TO
DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE GILA, AND AROUND 0 TO -5 IN
THE SACRAMENTOS FRIDAY MORNING, WITHOUT MUCH RECOVERY DURING THE
DAY. EVEN IN THE LOWLANDS, TEMPERATURES AROUND 40 IN EL PASO
FRIDAY MORNING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY WIND CHILLS AROUND 20. COLD
WEATHER ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE HOISTED BY FUTURE SHIFTS.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, BUT
EXPECT MODERATE RADIATIONAL COOLING. SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR ZERO
WILL BE POSSIBLE THE GILA COLD SPOTS (LAKE ROBERTS, GILA HOT
SPRINGS), ESPECIALLY IF THERE'S A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND.
EXPECT LOWS AROUND 11 IN CLOUDCROFT, BUT SINGLE DIGITS IN THE
CANYONS. FOR THE LOWLANDS, UPPER-10S LOOK LIKELY AROUND HATCH AND
THE JORNADA RANGE, AND THERE'S A CHANCE WE COULD DROP INTO THE
UPPER-10S IN PARTS OF THE MESILLA VALLEY. SATURDAY COULD SEE TEMPS
STUCK IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY CLIMB BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS PREVAILING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 439 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE ALL TERMINALS AS SHWRS EXPAND IN COVERAGE. THIS
WILL BRING LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS TO MOST TERMINALS, SAVE FOR
KELP, THROUGHOUT THE EARLY PORTION OF THE TAF PERIOD. WLY TO SWLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES. GUSTS MAY CREEP TO
AWW CRITERIA BRIEFLY BTWN 08/07Z AND 08/12Z. AREAS OF LLWS WILL
ALSO EXIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
AFT SUNRISE BUT WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING. AT THIS
JUNCTURE, IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE WINDS WILL REACH AWW CRITERIA AT
ELP. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHWRS WILL ENTER PORTIONS OF WRN AND SRN NM
THURSDAY NIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS, BRINGING MORE
POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN CIGS/VSBYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT, ALONG WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
MOSTLY BE ABOVE 7500 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING. SNOW SQUALLS AND BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE GILA, WITH MORE
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SACRAMENTOS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND QUIETER
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
VENT RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE DESPITE THE PRECIP, THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH MIN RH VALUES QUITE ELEVATED WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED.
RH VALUES WILL STAY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS PRECIP ENDS, AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 59 39 53 / 70 0 30 0
SIERRA BLANCA 41 54 35 49 / 70 0 20 0
LAS CRUCES 39 53 32 48 / 80 0 60 0
ALAMOGORDO 38 53 28 48 / 90 20 40 20
CLOUDCROFT 26 30 16 24 / 100 40 80 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 54 32 47 / 80 20 30 0
SILVER CITY 34 41 25 37 / 100 40 80 0
DEMING 39 54 33 50 / 100 10 70 0
LORDSBURG 36 50 28 45 / 90 30 60 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 44 57 39 52 / 70 0 40 0
DELL CITY 42 57 34 53 / 80 0 20 0
FORT HANCOCK 44 60 37 55 / 70 0 30 0
LOMA LINDA 40 51 33 45 / 80 0 30 0
FABENS 43 59 37 54 / 70 0 30 0
SANTA TERESA 42 56 36 51 / 70 0 50 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 43 55 36 51 / 80 10 50 10
JORNADA RANGE 36 55 30 49 / 80 10 60 10
HATCH 37 57 32 52 / 80 10 60 0
COLUMBUS 41 57 36 51 / 100 10 60 0
OROGRANDE 40 54 32 50 / 80 10 30 10
MAYHILL 32 41 22 34 / 90 30 90 30
MESCALERO 31 38 18 33 / 100 40 90 30
TIMBERON 29 40 18 35 / 100 30 70 20
WINSTON 28 43 19 36 / 80 20 60 0
HILLSBORO 36 51 29 46 / 80 20 60 0
SPACEPORT 36 55 26 48 / 80 10 60 10
LAKE ROBERTS 30 37 20 35 / 100 50 80 0
HURLEY 35 45 26 41 / 100 30 60 0
CLIFF 35 46 25 44 / 90 60 80 0
MULE CREEK 32 42 23 40 / 90 60 70 0
FAYWOOD 36 47 29 43 / 100 20 60 0
ANIMAS 38 52 29 47 / 80 20 70 0
HACHITA 37 52 28 46 / 80 10 70 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 52 30 49 / 80 10 60 0
CLOVERDALE 37 45 29 43 / 90 20 70 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN GILA
REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM MST
FRIDAY FOR SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...99
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