743
FXUS64 KEPZ 080535
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1035 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1003 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
- A PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO
THE AREA TONIGHT, WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ABOVE 7500 TO
8000 FEET.
- MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ON THURSDAY, WITH ANOTHER
SYSTEM SET TO BRING ADDITIONAL MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE BRIEFLY INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS AND
SQUALLS OVER THE GILA REGION THURSDAY EVENING.
- PERIODICALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
- MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. WIND CHILLS MAY DIP TO NEAR ZERO IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS AND GILA REGION FRIDAY MORNING, AND NEAR 20 IN THE
DESERT LOWLANDS.
- MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND, BUT WITH
COLD MORNINGS. WE WILL WARM BACK UP TO NEAR SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES BY MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS THE AXIS OF A NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SWINGING ITS WAY INTO NM. PRECIP HAS EXPANDED IN
COVERAGE ACROSS THE CWA, WITH A FEW HIGHER ELEVATION LOCALES SEEING
A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW AS COLDER AIR ALOFT SEEPS ITS WAY INTO THE
BORDERLAND. THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TRAJECTORY ACROSS NM
OVERNIGHT, BECOMING SOMEWHAT DISPLACED FROM THE OVERARCHING FLOW.
SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS
ELABORATED ON IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, WITH THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIP DIMINISHING AROUND 0300 MDT, SAVE FOR ACTIVITY IN THE SACS.
THE TIGHTENING H5 PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONGSIDE PERSISTENT LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGHING WILL LEND TO STRENGTHENING WINDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
AND THEN AGAIN IN THE LATE MORNING THURSDAY. THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
ITS IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WILL SEE THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF
AROUND 40 TO 45 MPH. SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
GIVEN THE WINDS, BLOWING SNOW WILL BECOME A HAZARD.
AS THE SYSTEM FROM THE MORNING SWOOPS UP INTO THE GREAT PLAINS,
ANOTHER SYSTEM COMES IN HOT ON ITS HEELS. THE BETTER MOISTURE
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO FOCUS ACROSS CENTRAL NM
HOWEVER, THIS SYSTEM HAS SUPERIOR DYNAMICS, PAINTING A SWATCH OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT
TOWARD A MORE SQUALL-LIKE FEATURE FORMING ACROSS THE GILA AND
SURGING SOUTHEASTWARD THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WOULD DELIVER A GUSTY
RAIN-SNOW MIX TO THE LOWLANDS OF SOUTHWESTERN NM, WITH A CHANGEOVER
TO RAIN CLOSER TO 5000'. THE MORE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM
COULD DELIVER GREATER SNOW AMOUNTS TOMORROW EVENING, PARTICULARLY
FOR PORTIONS OF GRANT CO. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF FRIDAY,
EXITING THE AREA COMPLETELY BY THE EVENING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW IN THE WAKE OF THESE SISTER
SYSTEMS. WHILE WINDS WILL HELP KEEP MINTS A LITTLE HIGHER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE
SINGLE AND POTENTIALLY NEGATIVE DIGITS FOR THE GILA AND SACS. EVEN
LOWLAND ZONES WILL BE PARTY TO BRISK CHILLS IN THE 20S, INCLUDING
THE ELP AND LRU METROS. WINDS SUBSIDE FRIDAY NIGHT, ALLOWING FOR
MORE ENHANCED RADIATIONAL COOLING. FRIGID TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
STORE FOR MOUNTAIN ZONES, WITH MINTS DIPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.
A SLOW REBOUND WILL BE IN STORE MOVING INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO PERSIST.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1003 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHWRS
TRAVERSING THE AREA ARE BRINGING LCL MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS.
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DETERIORATING OVERNIGHT. WLY
TO SWLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES AND GUSTS
MAY CREEP TO AWW CRITERIA BRIEFLY AT KELP BTWN 08/07Z AND 08/12Z.
AREAS OF LLWS WILL ALSO EXIST OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFT SUNRISE BUT WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN IN THE
LATE MORNING. GUSTS AT KELP MAY ATTEMPT TO REACH TOWARD AWW
CRITERIA AGAIN THURSDAY BTWN 08/17Z AND 08/22Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHWRS WILL ENTER PORTIONS OF WRN AND SRN NM THURSDAY NIGHT,
ACCOMPANIED BY GUSTY WINDS, BRINGING MORE POTENTIAL REDUCTIONS IN
CIGS/VSBYS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 205 PM MST WED JAN 7 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TONIGHT, ALONG WITH GUSTY
WEST WINDS AND LOWERING TEMPERATURES. ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL
MOSTLY BE ABOVE 7500 FEET OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH GUSTY WINDS
CONTINUING. SNOW SQUALLS AND BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE GILA, WITH MORE
MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE SACRAMENTOS. GUSTY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH SHARPLY COLDER CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
SLOWLY RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY. LIGHTER WINDS AND QUIETER
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
VENT RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE DESPITE THE PRECIP, THROUGH FRIDAY,
WITH MIN RH VALUES QUITE ELEVATED WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW EXPECTED.
RH VALUES WILL STAY IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AS PRECIP ENDS, AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WILL BE GOOD WITH
THE COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER SOIL MOISTURE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 61 38 53 / 90 0 20 0
SIERRA BLANCA 41 56 34 49 / 90 0 10 0
LAS CRUCES 38 55 32 49 / 90 10 30 0
ALAMOGORDO 37 56 28 48 / 100 20 50 20
CLOUDCROFT 25 31 16 25 / 100 30 50 30
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 37 56 32 47 / 90 20 40 10
SILVER CITY 34 44 25 40 / 100 50 80 10
DEMING 40 56 32 49 / 100 20 70 10
LORDSBURG 37 52 28 45 / 100 30 90 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 44 59 38 52 / 100 0 20 0
DELL CITY 40 59 34 53 / 90 0 10 0
FORT HANCOCK 43 63 38 55 / 90 0 10 0
LOMA LINDA 39 52 33 46 / 100 0 30 0
FABENS 42 61 38 54 / 100 0 10 0
SANTA TERESA 41 57 36 50 / 100 0 20 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 43 57 36 52 / 100 10 30 10
JORNADA RANGE 36 56 31 49 / 90 10 30 10
HATCH 38 59 33 53 / 90 10 60 10
COLUMBUS 41 58 35 51 / 100 10 40 10
OROGRANDE 39 56 32 50 / 90 10 40 10
MAYHILL 31 46 22 39 / 90 10 30 20
MESCALERO 28 44 19 37 / 100 30 60 30
TIMBERON 25 41 18 36 / 100 20 40 20
WINSTON 27 46 19 39 / 100 20 70 10
HILLSBORO 36 53 29 48 / 90 20 60 10
SPACEPORT 31 56 25 49 / 90 20 50 10
LAKE ROBERTS 30 43 18 39 / 100 60 80 10
HURLEY 34 48 25 43 / 100 30 90 10
CLIFF 35 50 25 47 / 100 70 80 10
MULE CREEK 33 46 22 42 / 100 80 90 10
FAYWOOD 37 48 29 44 / 100 20 80 10
ANIMAS 37 54 28 47 / 100 20 70 0
HACHITA 36 53 28 47 / 100 10 50 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 54 30 49 / 90 20 60 10
CLOVERDALE 37 46 29 42 / 100 30 50 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST FRIDAY FOR SOUTHERN GILA
REGION HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST FRIDAY FOR SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 5 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR CENTRAL GRANT COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-SOUTHERN GILA
FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 8 AM MST FRIDAY
FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...99
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