933
FXUS64 KEPZ 211209
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
509 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 447 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER
FAIR SKIES.
- HIGH CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A PACIFIC LOW. MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWLAND WINTRY MIX
ARE EXPECTED AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING RAIN AND SNOW AMOUNTS.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1011 PM MST TUE JAN 20 2026
FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
SEASONAL AVERAGE CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER, WITH LOWLAND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.
THE NEXT AND WELL ADVERTISED UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM SPINNING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC WILL APPROACH THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST. AS IT DOES
SO, A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL JET WILL DEVELOP ON THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF SAID UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, OVERSPREADING ACROSS
NM, WEST TX, AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOMALOUS MOISTURE
WILL SURGE IN FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. IN FACT,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 3-4 SIGMA ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.
DEEP MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH GOOD DYNAMICS WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, LASTING THROUGH MOST OF SATURDAY
(70-90% POPS) AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING (40-60% POPS). QPF CONTINUES
TO TREND UPWARD WITH GENERALLY 0.5-1.25" ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TO MEDIUM AT THIS TIME WITH REGARD
TO QPF.
WELL OFF TO THE NORTH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, A HISTORICALLY STRONG
ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (~1050MB) WILL USHER IN A ARCTIC
AIRMASS ACROSS CONUS. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE FRIDAY/SATURDAY TIMEFRAME. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD TO THE PROGRESSION OF SAID COLD FRONT,
TIMING OF WHEN IT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA, AND WHETHER OR NOT
PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE ONGOING AS IT PUSHES THROUGH - AGAIN,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH REGARD THE ASPECTS JUST MENTIONED ABOVE.
TIMING OF FROPA WILL BE KEY, WITH REGARD TO SNOW MIXING ACROSS THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. AS FRESH DATA CONTINUES TO POPULATE OVER THE NEXT
24-72 HOURS, WE WILL CONTINUE TO GET A BETTER GRASP ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. IF FROPA OCCURS EARLIER ON WHILE
PRECIPITATION IS ONGOING, THERE WILL BE BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
SNOW ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. IF FROPA OCCURS LATER ON WHILE
PRECIPITATION ENDS, THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CHANCES OF SEEING
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS. AS OF NOW, THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES OF SEEING SNOW OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINS (DIVE INTO
THAT IN THE NEXT PARAGRAPH) AND ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS OF HUDSPETH
COUNTY/OTERO MESA REGION. AS OF NOW FOR EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES NBM
PROBABILITIES ARE A LOW: PROBABILITY OF >/= 0.5 SNOW : EL PASO-20% /
LAS CRUCES-25%.
FOR THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, SNOW WILL BE
LIKELY THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS EVENT. SNOW LEVELS OVER THE SACS
LOOK TO HOLD AT 7500-8500 FT BEFORE THEY DROP DURING THE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TIMEFRAME. THAT BEING SAID BEING 72-96 HOURS
OUT FROM THE EVENT, EXACT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE SACS AND GILA
REMAIN UNCERTAIN. THERE REMAINS A HIGH CHANCE (70-90%) OF SEEING 4"
OR MORE OF SNOW (ADVISORY CRITERIA) OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS AND THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF THE BLACK RANGE/PINOS ALTOS. MEDIUM CHANCE
(50-65%) OF SEEING 8" OR MORE OF SNOW OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS.
AND LOW CHANCE (20-35%) OF SEEING 12" OR MORE OF SNOW OVER THE
SACRAMENTO MTNS. THAT BEING SAID, WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FT OVER
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD ON SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DROPPING TO BELOW 10 PERCENT AFTER 12PM AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN.
SUNDAY MORNING AND MONDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD, WITH
TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS SUNDAY
MORNING AND DROPPING INTO THE UPPER TEENS TO MIDDLE 20S MONDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES BOTH MORNING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL DROP
INTO THE TEENS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY WARM HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK WITH QUIET/FAIR
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS RESUMING.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT. OUR SURFACE WINDS TODAY WILL BE
LIGHT AND TONIGHT WE WILL HAVE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. OUR
CEILINGS WILL BE UNLIMITED THIS MORNING, BUT WE WILL SEE
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BY THE
AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE HIGH CEILINGS OF BKN250. FOR YOUR PLANNING
PURPOSES, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN ON FRIDAY AND THERE IS A
CHANCE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
STAY UPDATED WITH THE LATEST FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
WE WILL HAVE QUIET FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS,
THEN AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
AND WIND AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT WE WILL SEE OUR LIGHT WINDS PICK UP AND BE GUSTY
FROM THE EAST. MIN RH'S TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS
ACROSS THE AREA. THEN AS THE MOISTURE AND COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE
AREA WE WILL SEE MIN RH'S RUNNING ABOVE 30% FOR FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. WE COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWS IN AREA MOUNTAINS,
ESPECIALLY THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. MOST LOWLAND LOCATIONS WILL
SEE RAIN ON FRIDAY, BUT A WINTRY MIX WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
SATURDAY. VENT RATES TODAY WILL BE POOR TO FAIR AND FOR THURSDAY
OUR VENT RATES WILL RANGE FROM FAIR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 37 67 46 58 / 0 0 10 80
SIERRA BLANCA 35 65 43 55 / 0 0 10 60
LAS CRUCES 32 63 41 55 / 0 0 20 80
ALAMOGORDO 31 62 39 55 / 0 0 10 80
CLOUDCROFT 29 44 31 36 / 0 0 10 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 34 62 39 55 / 0 0 10 70
SILVER CITY 36 59 39 53 / 0 0 20 80
DEMING 33 67 42 58 / 0 10 20 80
LORDSBURG 34 63 41 60 / 0 10 20 80
WEST EL PASO METRO 40 65 48 57 / 0 0 10 80
DELL CITY 27 66 36 53 / 0 0 10 60
FORT HANCOCK 34 70 44 62 / 0 0 10 70
LOMA LINDA 38 59 42 51 / 0 0 10 70
FABENS 34 68 44 59 / 0 0 10 70
SANTA TERESA 34 63 44 55 / 0 0 10 80
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 64 47 56 / 0 0 20 80
JORNADA RANGE 29 62 39 55 / 0 0 20 80
HATCH 30 65 40 58 / 0 0 20 80
COLUMBUS 36 67 46 60 / 0 10 20 80
OROGRANDE 33 62 42 54 / 0 0 10 80
MAYHILL 31 59 31 47 / 0 0 10 80
MESCALERO 29 55 31 47 / 0 0 10 80
TIMBERON 29 54 32 45 / 0 0 10 80
WINSTON 27 59 31 51 / 0 0 10 80
HILLSBORO 35 63 41 56 / 0 0 20 80
SPACEPORT 29 62 36 55 / 0 0 20 80
LAKE ROBERTS 32 58 35 51 / 0 0 20 80
HURLEY 32 62 38 55 / 0 0 20 80
CLIFF 32 64 35 59 / 0 0 20 80
MULE CREEK 33 60 36 55 / 0 0 20 80
FAYWOOD 36 61 42 53 / 0 0 20 80
ANIMAS 34 65 44 61 / 0 10 20 80
HACHITA 33 65 42 59 / 0 0 20 80
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 68 43 61 / 0 10 20 80
CLOVERDALE 42 61 46 55 / 0 10 20 80
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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