226
FXUS64 KEPZ 220652
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1152 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1045 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY UNDER MURKY HIGH
CLOUD COVER.
- COMPLEX INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, AND A WINTRY MIX IN SOME LOWLAND AREAS IS POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF EL
PASO.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS, PARTICULARLY BELOW 9000 FEET, WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
THICK HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA, AND WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE THURSDAY. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS, STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER-60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
THURSDAY.
MOST OF THE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST WAS ON THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE WARMER, WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLDING THE BACKDOOR FRONT AT BAY MUCH OF SATURDAY,
KEEPING SNOW LEVELS MOSTLY ABOVE 9000 FEET. BUT, SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SNOW LEVELS DROP,
AND IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH TO SNEAK THE FRONT IN SOONER.
WINTRY PRECIP IMPACTS FOR EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES STILL LOOK TO BE
"MINIMAL TO NONE", THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE PASSES IS STILL
POSSIBLE, AND HIGHER IMPACTS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN HUDSPETH
COUNTY AND POINTS EAST CAN HAVE A KNOCK-ON EFFECT IN THE EL PASO
AREA, PARTICULARLY WITH TRANSPORTATION.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
SONORA ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, OUR UPPER LOW WILL STILL
BE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
JUST ENTERING THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS FRIDAY (LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON), BUT SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START OUT
AROUND 9000 FEET. HIGHER THAN CLOUDCROFT VILLAGE, BUT STILL
AFFECTING PARTS OF THE SUNSPOT HIGHWAY.
700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE BAJA SPUR, AND THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO UTAH. THE GFS FINALLY BRINGS ESE FLOW INTO
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY MORNING, JUST AS A LULL
DEVELOPS IN THE PRECIP, BUT SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK TO HOVER
AROUND 8500 FEET UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, AS THE DEEPER COLD AIR
LAGS BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT VERY LOPSIDED SNOW
LEVELS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS -- AROUND 8500
FEET ALONG THE WEST SLOPES, AND 6500 TO 7500 FEET ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES, JUST AS PRECIP STARTS REDEVELOPING.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAKE-OR-BREAK PERIOD FOR THIS EVENT, AS
THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER CHIHUAHUA, AND BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND THE DEEPER
COLDER AIR BEHIND IT NEEDS TO PUSH WESTWARD IN ORDER TO SEE WINTER
STORM WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND IT'S
UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE.
NBM STATS/PROBABILITIES HAVE MOSTLY TICKED WARMER. THE NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE SNOWFALL IS ONLY ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR CLOUDCROFT BY 00Z
SUNDAY, WITH 4 INCHES AROUND THE SUNSPOT HIGHWAY HIGH POINT. FOR
THE WHOLE EVENT, THE 10TH PERCENTILE SNOWFALL RANGES FROM 1 INCH
AT CLOUDCROFT TO 3 INCHES AROUND 9500 FEET. 50TH PERCENTILE: 7.5
TO 11.0 INCHES. 90TH: 14 TO 18 INCHES.
SIGNALS FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN HUDSPETH COUNTY ARE ALSO
FADING A BIT, WITH THE GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING FZRA AT SIERRA
BLANCA AND JUST WEST OF VAN HORN AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SHALLOW COLD AIR MAKES ITS MOVE WEST. IT'S A VERY THIN LAYER OF
WARM AIR, RIGHT AROUND 800 MB (NOT FAR OFF THE GROUND), AND
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAY ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
RISK IS STILL NOTABLE, HOWEVER, AND FZRA CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GRIDS.
CONSIDERING THE SHIFTS AND UNCERTAINTY, AND THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS
ON FRIDAY LIMITING IMPACTS, WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH AS-IS, RATHER THAN MAKE A MOVE TO UPGRADE OR GO TO
ADVISORIES. WITH THE FZRA RISK IN HUDSPETH COUNTY NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT, WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME ON OUR SIDE FOR HEADLINES
THERE.
SNOW CHANCES FOR EL PASO LOOK VERY LOW, AND WOULD BE CONFINED TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IMPACTS WOULD BE NEARLY NIL, BUT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON TRANSMOUNTAIN (AND SAN AUGUSTIN PASS) CAN'T BE
RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S EVEN IN THE URBAN LOWLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT (MON
AM) AND MONDAY NIGHT (TUE AM), WITH 10S IN THE MESILLA VALLEY.
RIVALING WHAT WE SAW BACK AROUND JAN 10-11. IN OTHER WORDS,
NOTHING EXTREME, AND LOWLAND HIGHS LOOK TO STAY WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD (ELP HIGH SUNDAY 46, COULD TREND LOWER
IF THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOVES FURTHER WEST, HIGHS MONDAY BACK UP
TO THE UPPER-40S/LOWER-50S).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT WSW THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS (SCT-BKN180) BEGINNING TO WORK IN FROM
THE SOUTH, IN ADDITION TO THE ON-GOING BKN-OVC250. SCT120 MAY
START WORKING INTO ELP THURSDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 945 AM MST WED JAN 21 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WINDS REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THU, FAVORING A WESTERLY DIRECTION
TOMORROW. TEMPS WARM THROUGH THU TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
FAIR SKIES. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TONIGHT. A STORM
SYSTEM BRINGS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND PRECIP CHANCES FRI-SAT AS
COLD AIR SPILLS IN ON SAT/SUN. SNOW WILL BE MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MTNS WITH HEAVY SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST FOR THE SACS (NEAR ONE
FOOT). MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS FOR THE LOWLANDS THROUGH SAT, THEN A
WINTRY MIX SAT NIGHT/SUN AS THE EVENT WRAPS UP. SOME BREEZY WINDS
ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK, GUSTING TO 25 MPH. COLD
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-25% THROUGH THU, THEN 40-70% THROUGH
WEEKEND. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR TODAY, THEN POOR TO GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 37 67 48 60 / 0 0 20 80
SIERRA BLANCA 40 66 45 59 / 0 0 20 80
LAS CRUCES 33 63 42 55 / 0 0 20 80
ALAMOGORDO 33 63 40 56 / 0 0 20 80
CLOUDCROFT 31 44 31 38 / 0 0 30 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 62 40 55 / 0 0 20 70
SILVER CITY 34 59 40 50 / 0 10 20 80
DEMING 33 66 43 59 / 0 10 30 80
LORDSBURG 33 64 42 56 / 0 0 20 80
WEST EL PASO METRO 37 66 50 58 / 0 0 20 80
DELL CITY 29 66 40 56 / 0 0 10 70
FORT HANCOCK 34 71 46 64 / 0 0 20 80
LOMA LINDA 32 60 46 53 / 0 0 20 80
FABENS 35 68 47 61 / 0 0 20 80
SANTA TERESA 35 64 47 56 / 0 0 30 80
WHITE SANDS HQ 38 64 48 56 / 0 0 30 80
JORNADA RANGE 27 63 42 55 / 0 0 30 80
HATCH 28 66 41 58 / 0 0 20 80
COLUMBUS 32 67 48 59 / 0 10 40 80
OROGRANDE 35 63 43 55 / 0 0 30 80
MAYHILL 29 59 33 50 / 0 0 30 70
MESCALERO 28 55 32 49 / 0 0 20 80
TIMBERON 28 54 33 46 / 0 0 30 80
WINSTON 29 59 32 50 / 0 0 10 70
HILLSBORO 36 63 41 56 / 0 0 20 80
SPACEPORT 29 62 37 55 / 0 0 20 70
LAKE ROBERTS 20 59 35 50 / 0 10 20 80
HURLEY 32 VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL TREND TOWARDS LIGHT WSW THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS (SCT-BKN180) BEGINNING TO WORK IN FROM
THE SOUTH, IN ADDITION TO THE ON-GOING BKN-OVC250. 62 38 54 / 0
10 20 80 CLIFF 28 64 37 56 / 0 0 20 80 MULE CREEK 23 61 37 53 / 0
0 10 70 FAYWOOD 35 61 42 52 / 0 10 30 80 ANIMAS 34 67 46 59 / 0 10
40 80 HACHITA 35 67 45 57 / 0 10 30 80 ANTELOPE WELLS 31 69 45 59
/ 0 20 40 80 CLOVERDALE 38 61 46 51 / 0 20 50 90
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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