553
FXUS64 KEPZ 221121
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
421 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 420 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY UNDER MURKY HIGH
CLOUD COVER.
- COMPLEX INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS LIKELY IN THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS, AND A WINTRY MIX IN SOME LOWLAND AREAS IS POSSIBLE
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY EAST OF EL
PASO.
- A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS,
THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS, PARTICULARLY BELOW 9000 FEET, WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MST WED JAN 21 2026
THICK HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA, AND WILL STICK
AROUND THROUGH THE THURSDAY. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS, STILL EXPECT
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER-60S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS
THURSDAY.
MOST OF THE ATTENTION TO THE FORECAST WAS ON THE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. OVERALL TREND HAS BEEN A LITTLE WARMER, WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLDING THE BACKDOOR FRONT AT BAY MUCH OF SATURDAY,
KEEPING SNOW LEVELS MOSTLY ABOVE 9000 FEET. BUT, SIGNIFICANT QPF
IS STILL EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SNOW LEVELS DROP,
AND IT WOULDN'T TAKE MUCH TO SNEAK THE FRONT IN SOONER.
WINTRY PRECIP IMPACTS FOR EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES STILL LOOK TO BE
"MINIMAL TO NONE", THOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW ON THE PASSES IS STILL
POSSIBLE, AND HIGHER IMPACTS ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN HUDSPETH
COUNTY AND POINTS EAST CAN HAVE A KNOCK-ON EFFECT IN THE EL PASO
AREA, PARTICULARLY WITH TRANSPORTATION.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS LOOK TO BEGIN TO BREAK OUT LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT IN SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO, MOSTLY IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AS A JET STREAK ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER
INCREASES IN INTENSITY. A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
SONORA ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS TO INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. MEANWHILE, OUR UPPER LOW WILL STILL
BE WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA, AND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
JUST ENTERING THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS FRIDAY (LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON), BUT SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO START OUT
AROUND 9000 FEET. HIGHER THAN CLOUDCROFT VILLAGE, BUT STILL
AFFECTING PARTS OF THE SUNSPOT HIGHWAY.
700 MB TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY DROP ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE BAJA SPUR, AND THE MAIN NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO UTAH. THE GFS FINALLY BRINGS ESE FLOW INTO
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY MORNING, JUST AS A LULL
DEVELOPS IN THE PRECIP, BUT SNOW LEVELS STILL LOOK TO HOVER
AROUND 8500 FEET UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY, AS THE DEEPER COLD AIR
LAGS BEHIND THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT WITH THE FRONT.
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON, WE COULD BE LOOKING AT VERY LOPSIDED SNOW
LEVELS ON EITHER SIDE OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS -- AROUND 8500
FEET ALONG THE WEST SLOPES, AND 6500 TO 7500 FEET ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES, JUST AS PRECIP STARTS REDEVELOPING.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE THE MAKE-OR-BREAK PERIOD FOR THIS EVENT, AS
THE UPPER LOW WEAKENS INTO AN OPEN WAVE OVER CHIHUAHUA, AND BEGINS
TO PHASE WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE
FOUR CORNERS. THIS WILL BE WHEN THE BACKDOOR FRONT AND THE DEEPER
COLDER AIR BEHIND IT NEEDS TO PUSH WESTWARD IN ORDER TO SEE WINTER
STORM WARNING-LEVEL SNOWFALL IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND IT'S
UNCOMFORTABLY CLOSE.
NBM STATS/PROBABILITIES HAVE MOSTLY TICKED WARMER. THE NBM 50TH
PERCENTILE SNOWFALL IS ONLY ABOUT 2 INCHES FOR CLOUDCROFT BY 00Z
SUNDAY, WITH 4 INCHES AROUND THE SUNSPOT HIGHWAY HIGH POINT. FOR
THE WHOLE EVENT, THE 10TH PERCENTILE SNOWFALL RANGES FROM 1 INCH
AT CLOUDCROFT TO 3 INCHES AROUND 9500 FEET. 50TH PERCENTILE: 7.5
TO 11.0 INCHES. 90TH: 14 TO 18 INCHES.
SIGNALS FOR FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL IN HUDSPETH COUNTY ARE ALSO
FADING A BIT, WITH THE GFS SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING FZRA AT SIERRA
BLANCA AND JUST WEST OF VAN HORN AFTER DARK SATURDAY NIGHT AS
SHALLOW COLD AIR MAKES ITS MOVE WEST. IT'S A VERY THIN LAYER OF
WARM AIR, RIGHT AROUND 800 MB (NOT FAR OFF THE GROUND), AND
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST IT MAY ERODE FAIRLY QUICKLY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
RISK IS STILL NOTABLE, HOWEVER, AND FZRA CHANCES ARE STILL IN THE
DETERMINISTIC GRIDS.
CONSIDERING THE SHIFTS AND UNCERTAINTY, AND THE HIGHER SNOW LEVELS
ON FRIDAY LIMITING IMPACTS, WE DECIDED TO KEEP THE WINTER STORM
WATCH AS-IS, RATHER THAN MAKE A MOVE TO UPGRADE OR GO TO
ADVISORIES. WITH THE FZRA RISK IN HUDSPETH COUNTY NOT UNTIL
SATURDAY NIGHT, WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME ON OUR SIDE FOR HEADLINES
THERE.
SNOW CHANCES FOR EL PASO LOOK VERY LOW, AND WOULD BE CONFINED TO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. IMPACTS WOULD BE NEARLY NIL, BUT LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ON TRANSMOUNTAIN (AND SAN AUGUSTIN PASS) CAN'T BE
RULED OUT.
TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A TUMBLE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S EVEN IN THE URBAN LOWLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT (MON
AM) AND MONDAY NIGHT (TUE AM), WITH 10S IN THE MESILLA VALLEY.
RIVALING WHAT WE SAW BACK AROUND JAN 10-11. IN OTHER WORDS,
NOTHING EXTREME, AND LOWLAND HIGHS LOOK TO STAY WELL ABOVE
FREEZING THROUGH THE PERIOD (ELP HIGH SUNDAY 46, COULD TREND LOWER
IF THE BACKDOOR FRONT SHOVES FURTHER WEST, HIGHS MONDAY BACK UP
TO THE UPPER-40S/LOWER-50S).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH INCREASING SCT-BKN150 LAYERS
TO 300. DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z, MAINLY DEMING WEST...BKN100 WITH
ISOLATED BKN070 -SHRA. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS
BECOMING WEST 7-10 KNOTS AFTER 20Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 420 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE FORECAST HORIZON. ONE LAST
TRANQUIL DAY TODAY WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVE WAY TO INCOMING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL
SPREAD LOWLAND SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE MOSTLY TO SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10 INCHES FOR ZONE 113 AND 1-3 INCHES FOR ZONE
110. TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
DRIER WEST FLOW THEN MOVES IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR CLEARING
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS 15-20% TODAY INCREASING TO 60-75%
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN DOWN TO 30-45% MONDAY/TUESDAY.
MOUNTAINS 15-25% TODAY, INCREASING TO 60-80% FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN DOWN TO 35-50% MONDAY/TUESDAY. VENT RATES POOR-FAIR
THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 48 60 48 52 / 20 80 70 90
SIERRA BLANCA 45 59 44 45 / 20 80 90 90
LAS CRUCES 42 55 46 50 / 20 80 80 90
ALAMOGORDO 40 56 45 49 / 20 80 90 90
CLOUDCROFT 31 40 34 36 / 30 80 100 90
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 40 55 43 50 / 20 70 80 90
SILVER CITY 40 50 41 45 / 20 80 70 90
DEMING 43 59 45 52 / 30 80 70 90
LORDSBURG 42 56 45 50 / 20 80 70 90
WEST EL PASO METRO 50 58 48 52 / 20 80 70 90
DELL CITY 40 56 38 41 / 10 70 90 80
FORT HANCOCK 46 64 47 55 / 20 80 90 90
LOMA LINDA 46 53 42 44 / 20 80 80 90
FABENS 47 61 46 53 / 20 80 70 90
SANTA TERESA 47 56 47 51 / 30 80 70 90
WHITE SANDS HQ 48 56 48 49 / 30 80 90 90
JORNADA RANGE 42 55 43 50 / 30 80 90 90
HATCH 41 58 45 52 / 20 80 90 90
COLUMBUS 48 59 47 53 / 40 80 70 90
OROGRANDE 43 55 44 47 / 30 80 90 90
MAYHILL 33 51 36 38 / 30 70 90 90
MESCALERO 32 50 37 42 / 20 80 100 90
TIMBERON 33 47 38 41 / 30 80 90 90
WINSTON 32 50 34 45 / 10 70 80 90
HILLSBORO 41 56 42 50 / 20 80 80 90
SPACEPORT 37 55 42 50 / 20 70 90 90
LAKE ROBERTS 34 50 36 44 / 20 80 70 90
HURLEY 38 54 42 47 / 20 80 70 90
CLIFF 36 56 41 49 / 20 80 70 90
MULE CREEK 36 53 38 47 / 10 70 70 90
FAYWOOD 42 52 43 47 / 30 80 80 90
ANIMAS 46 59 47 52 / 40 80 70 90
HACHITA 45 57 45 51 / 30 80 70 90
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 59 44 52 / 40 80 70 90
CLOVERDALE 46 51 44 46 / 50 90 80 90
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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