166
FXUS64 KEPZ 230506
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1006 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1000 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
- COMPLEX INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS FORECAST
FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET WILL SEE
HIGHER TOTALS.
- UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
HUDSPETH COUNTY.
- THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND
ACCUMULATIONS. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
OUR STRETCH OF FAIR WEATHER IS ENDING THANKS TO A LARGE UL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA/ BAJA COAST, WHICH IS SCOOPING UP AMPLE
MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF IT. A SUBTLE LEAD S/W IS EVIDENT JUST OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH PLENTY OF LIFT EVIDENT AHEAD
OF IT. CLOSER TO HOME, KEPZ RADAR IS ALREADY SEEING ECHOS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CHIHUAHUA, JUST NOW STARTING TO SPILL INTO
HUDSEPTH COUNTY WITH ANOTHER LINE TOUCHING THE SW DONA ANA COUNTY
LINE. SOME OF THIS PRECIP MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME, BUT THAT
WON'T LAST LONG. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THAT LEADING S/W, GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
NEARLY ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN THOUGH SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BOTH THE GILA AND SACS MAY SEE A LITTLE
SNOW MIX IN INITIALLY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. CAMS DO
SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL DECREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BY NO MEANS END. THIS RELATIVE LULL LOOKS TO END WHEN
A SECOND WAVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COURTESY OF ANOTHER
IMPULSE. BY SUNDAY MORNING, PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO EXIT THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXTREMELY MOISTURE RICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING PW VALUES 0.80-0.90", WHICH WOULD BE RECORD
SETTING PER THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO GIVE US A HEALTHY DOSE OF WATER. NBM 25TH IS SHOWING ABOUT
0.4-0.70" OF LIQUID WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE OVER 1.10" FOR MOST
OF THE LOWLANDS. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS
WILL FALL AS FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP? FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS, THE
ANSWER IS A PRETTY CLEAR: LITTLE TO NONE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER AND LATER WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. STRONG WAA WILL
STALL THE SHALLOW AIR MASS UP JUST ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF
OUR CWA FOR THE ENTIRE DAY FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ONLY THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR ALL. ON SATURDAY MORNING, THE ARCTIC AIR WILL TRY AND
MAKE A BIT OF AN ATTEMPT TO ENTER OUR CWA, BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
TO BRING IMPACTS. A STRONGER PUSH IS EXPECTED SOMETIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING. THE 00Z HRRR KEEPS THE COLD AIR EAST
OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WHILE THE NAM, WHICH OFTEN HANDLES
THESE ARCTIC AIR MASSES WELL, IS ONE OF THE QUICKER MODELS,
ALLOWING IT TO START ITS WESTWARD PROGRESSION AS SOON AS 18Z
SATURDAY. THIS CONTINUES TO SPELL TROUBLE FOR OUR SNOWFALL
FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF THE COLDER AIR CAN PUSH
IN SOONER, SNOWFALL TOTALS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SACS, WILL SEE HIGHER, POSSIBLY EVEN MUCH HIGHER IMPACTS. 12Z LREF
75TH PERCENTILE HAS CLOSE TO 10" TOWARD THE LINCOLN/CHAVES COUNTY
LINE, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS. LIKEWISE, AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL WILL BRING MORE FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY.
USING THE 12Z LREF AS A GUIDE, WHICH IGNORES QPF FROM CAMS, WHICH
USUALLY WAY OVERDO TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, THE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE GIVES ABOUT 4 TO 10" RANGE FOR THE SACS. I USED THIS
FOR MY WARNING/ADVISORY DECISION, FAVORING AN ADVISORY FOR THE
WEST SLOPES AND ELEVATIONS OVER 7500 FEET FOR THE SACS (WHICH HAS
A WARNING CRITERIA OF 7") AND A WARNING FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SACS. FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE OTERO MESA AND MUCH OF HUDSPETH
COUNTY, I ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIP WITH MOST PLACES
RECEIVING UP TO AN 1" (LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 2") OF SNOW WITH SOME
SLEET AND ICE POSSIBLY MIXED IN. FOR THE TULAROSA BASIN, TO EL
PASO, AND UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN'T BE RULED
OUT SUNDAY MORNING, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
ONCE AGAIN, TOTALS AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT
ON WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR DECIDES TO MAKE ITS WESTWARD PUSH.
LIKEWISE, WHERE IT STALLS TOWARDS THE OTERO-LINCOLN-CHAVES COUNTY
LINES WILL ALSO MAKE A SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCE IN TOTALS AND
IMPACTS. BE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
AFTER SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AFTER A CHILLY
MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID- WEEK THEN ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BUT INTERMITTENT MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR ALSO POSSIBLE (LOW
TO MODERATE CHANCE). THIS IS THANKS TO AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SEVERAL ROUNDS OF RAIN, MORE ON THAN OFF
WITH POSSIBLY A CLAP OR TWO OF THUNDER, WITH SUBSEQUENT REDUCTIONS
IN VISIBILITY AS LOW AS 1SM AND CIGS POTENTIALLY AS LOW AS 1000
FEET AGL. FOR NOW, HOWEVER, I LIMITED TAFS TO 050 WITH PREVAILING
VIS OF 6SM AND TEMPO/PROB30 GROUPS AS LOW AS 3SM WITH CIGS AS LOW
AS 020. WINDS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1008 AM MST THU JAN 22 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON THE FORECAST HORIZON. ONE LAST
TRANQUIL DAY TODAY WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES GIVE WAY TO INCOMING PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WHICH WILL
SPREAD LOWLAND SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MID-DAY SUNDAY. MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. RAIN WILL CHANGE MOSTLY TO SNOW
OVER THE MOUNTAIN ZONES SATURDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON, WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5-10 INCHES FOR ZONE 113 AND 1-3 INCHES FOR ZONE
110. TEMPERATURES FALLING TO WELL BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY-SUNDAY.
DRIER WEST FLOW THEN MOVES IN MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOR CLEARING
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS 15-20% TODAY INCREASING TO 60-75%
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN DOWN TO 30-45% MONDAY/TUESDAY.
MOUNTAINS 15-25% TODAY, INCREASING TO 60-80% FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY, THEN DOWN TO 35-50% MONDAY/TUESDAY. VENT RATES POOR-FAIR
THROUGH TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 46 59 45 53 / 50 100 90 100
SIERRA BLANCA 46 58 38 46 / 30 90 90 100
LAS CRUCES 41 54 41 51 / 40 100 90 100
ALAMOGORDO 38 55 40 51 / 10 90 90 100
CLOUDCROFT 31 38 29 32 / 10 90 100 100
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 38 53 41 53 / 10 80 90 100
SILVER CITY 38 49 39 46 / 20 90 90 100
DEMING 42 57 43 56 / 50 100 90 100
LORDSBURG 41 54 42 53 / 40 90 90 100
WEST EL PASO METRO 49 57 47 52 / 40 100 90 100
DELL CITY 38 56 32 43 / 20 90 90 100
FORT HANCOCK 46 65 44 56 / 30 90 90 100
LOMA LINDA 44 53 39 45 / 40 100 90 100
FABENS 46 61 44 55 / 40 90 90 100
SANTA TERESA 45 56 45 52 / 50 100 90 100
WHITE SANDS HQ 46 56 45 52 / 30 100 90 100
JORNADA RANGE 39 54 42 52 / 20 90 90 100
HATCH 38 57 41 57 / 20 90 90 100
COLUMBUS 46 58 46 57 / 70 100 90 100
OROGRANDE 41 54 41 49 / 20 100 100 100
MAYHILL 34 50 27 41 / 10 90 90 100
MESCALERO 32 48 31 43 / 0 90 100 100
TIMBERON 33 45 29 39 / 10 100 90 100
WINSTON 30 50 30 48 / 0 80 90 100
HILLSBORO 39 55 39 54 / 10 90 90 100
SPACEPORT 34 53 38 53 / 10 80 90 100
LAKE ROBERTS 33 48 35 46 / 10 90 90 100
HURLEY 37 52 37 50 / 20 90 90 100
CLIFF 35 53 39 52 / 10 90 90 100
MULE CREEK 35 50 37 49 / 10 90 90 100
FAYWOOD 41 51 41 49 / 20 90 90 100
ANIMAS 45 57 44 55 / 70 100 90 100
HACHITA 44 56 43 54 / 70 100 90 100
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 58 43 56 / 70 100 90 100
CLOVERDALE 46 50 44 49 / 80 100 90 100
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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