896
FXUS64 KEPZ 231158
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
458 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 436 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
- COMPLEX INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS IS FORECAST
FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET WILL SEE
HIGHER TOTALS.
- UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXED IN IS
EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING FOR PARTS OF
HUDSPETH COUNTY.
- THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PRECIP TYPE AND
ACCUMULATIONS. CONTINUE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST THU JAN 22 2026
OUR STRETCH OF FAIR WEATHER IS ENDING THANKS TO A LARGE UL LOW
OFF THE CALIFORNIA/ BAJA COAST, WHICH IS SCOOPING UP AMPLE
MOISTURE WELL AHEAD OF IT. A SUBTLE LEAD S/W IS EVIDENT JUST OFF
THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR WITH PLENTY OF LIFT EVIDENT AHEAD
OF IT. CLOSER TO HOME, KEPZ RADAR IS ALREADY SEEING ECHOS WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER CHIHUAHUA, JUST NOW STARTING TO SPILL INTO
HUDSEPTH COUNTY WITH ANOTHER LINE TOUCHING THE SW DONA ANA COUNTY
LINE. SOME OF THIS PRECIP MAY NOT BE REACHING THE GROUND AS THERE
IS SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME, BUT THAT
WON'T LAST LONG. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THAT LEADING S/W, GRADUALLY OVERSPREADING THE AREA DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, LASTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY FRIDAY.
NEARLY ALL OF THIS WILL FALL IN THE FORM OF RAIN THOUGH SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF BOTH THE GILA AND SACS MAY SEE A LITTLE
SNOW MIX IN INITIALLY WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION. CAMS DO
SUGGEST COVERAGE WILL DECREASE BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING BUT RAIN
CHANCES WILL BY NO MEANS END. THIS RELATIVE LULL LOOKS TO END WHEN
A SECOND WAVE OF MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP OVERTAKES THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS COURTESY OF ANOTHER
IMPULSE. BY SUNDAY MORNING, PRECIP WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN
THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THE TROUGH BEGINS
TO EXIT THE AREA.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXTREMELY MOISTURE RICH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
GFS/NAM ARE INDICATING PW VALUES 0.80-0.90", WHICH WOULD BE RECORD
SETTING PER THE SPC SOUNDING CLIMATOLOGY PAGE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO GIVE US A HEALTHY DOSE OF WATER. NBM 25TH IS SHOWING ABOUT
0.4-0.70" OF LIQUID WITH THE 75TH PERCENTILE OVER 1.10" FOR MOST
OF THE LOWLANDS. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION IS HOW MUCH OF THIS
WILL FALL AS FREEZING/FROZEN PRECIP? FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS, THE
ANSWER IS A PRETTY CLEAR: LITTLE TO NONE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
CONTINUED TO TREND WARMER AND LATER WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS
CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH THROUGH THE PLAINS. STRONG WAA WILL
STALL THE SHALLOW AIR MASS UP JUST ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF
OUR CWA FOR THE ENTIRE DAY FRIDAY. AS MENTIONED ABOVE, ONLY THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS MAY SEE SOME MIXED PRECIP. OTHERWISE IT WILL BE
ALL RAIN FOR ALL. ON SATURDAY MORNING, THE ARCTIC AIR WILL TRY AND
MAKE A BIT OF AN ATTEMPT TO ENTER OUR CWA, BUT PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH
TO BRING IMPACTS. A STRONGER PUSH IS EXPECTED SOMETIME SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE IS ALL
OVER THE PLACE WITH TIMING. THE 00Z HRRR KEEPS THE COLD AIR EAST
OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WHILE THE NAM, WHICH OFTEN HANDLES
THESE ARCTIC AIR MASSES WELL, IS ONE OF THE QUICKER MODELS,
ALLOWING IT TO START ITS WESTWARD PROGRESSION AS SOON AS 18Z
SATURDAY. THIS CONTINUES TO SPELL TROUBLE FOR OUR SNOWFALL
FORECASTS, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IF THE COLDER AIR CAN PUSH
IN SOONER, SNOWFALL TOTALS, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SACS, WILL SEE HIGHER, POSSIBLY EVEN MUCH HIGHER IMPACTS. 12Z LREF
75TH PERCENTILE HAS CLOSE TO 10" TOWARD THE LINCOLN/CHAVES COUNTY
LINE, WHICH IS IN LINE WITH THE 00Z GFS. LIKEWISE, AN EARLIER
ARRIVAL WILL BRING MORE FREEZING RAIN, SLEET, AND SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS TO PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY.
USING THE 12Z LREF AS A GUIDE, WHICH IGNORES QPF FROM CAMS, WHICH
USUALLY WAY OVERDO TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS, THE 25TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE GIVES ABOUT 4 TO 10" RANGE FOR THE SACS. I USED THIS
FOR MY WARNING/ADVISORY DECISION, FAVORING AN ADVISORY FOR THE
WEST SLOPES AND ELEVATIONS OVER 7500 FEET FOR THE SACS (WHICH HAS
A WARNING CRITERIA OF 7") AND A WARNING FOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SACS. FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE OTERO MESA AND MUCH OF HUDSPETH
COUNTY, I ISSUED AN ADVISORY FOR MIXED PRECIP WITH MOST PLACES
RECEIVING UP TO AN 1" (LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 2") OF SNOW WITH SOME
SLEET AND ICE POSSIBLY MIXED IN. FOR THE TULAROSA BASIN, TO EL
PASO, AND UP THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, SOME LIGHT SNOW CAN'T BE RULED
OUT SUNDAY MORNING, BUT LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
ONCE AGAIN, TOTALS AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT
ON WHEN THE ARCTIC AIR DECIDES TO MAKE ITS WESTWARD PUSH.
LIKEWISE, WHERE IT STALLS TOWARDS THE OTERO-LINCOLN-CHAVES COUNTY
LINES WILL ALSO MAKE A SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCE IN TOTALS AND
IMPACTS. BE SURE TO CHECK BACK FOR UPDATES.
AFTER SUNDAY, WE WILL BE IN QUASI-ZONAL FLOW. AFTER A CHILLY
MONDAY MORNING, TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO UP TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID- WEEK THEN ABOVE NORMAL INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
NEXT THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
ACTIVE WEATHER TODAY WITH LOTS OF RAIN AND LOW CEILINGS, BUT NOT
MUCH WIND OR ANY FROZEN PRECIPITATION TODAY. RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOWER CEILINGS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA. WE WILL
SEE OFF AND ON RAIN SHOWERS THIS MORNING, BUT MORE STEADY RAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. WE WILL RETURN TO OFF AND
ON SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. WE
WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR VISIBILITIES IN RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
VISIBILITIES NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE CHALLENGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL BE THE CEILINGS. I WENT AHEAD AND DROPPED THE
CEILINGS AROUND THE REGION INTO THE MVFR RANGE OF THINGS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. BUT WE COULD SEE SOME IFR AND EVEN LIFR CEILINGS DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MY CONFIDENCE IN THOSE LOWER CEILINGS
AND THEIR TIMING IS NOT HIGH SO WATCH FOR TAF UPDATES AS
CONDITIONS DICTATE. WE WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT, BUT THE
HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN ON SATURDAY, WITH SNOW LIKELY
IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO CONTINUE
INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHEN WE MAY BE COLD ENOUGH TO SEE SOME SNOW
MIX INTO THE RAIN FOR KELP, KLRU AND KTCS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 436 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
WE WILL SEE AN EXTENDED TIME OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR TODAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL START OFF QUITE HIGH TODAY ABOVE
9,000 FEET, BUT LOWER SOME TO GIVE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF AREA
MOUNTAINS SOME SNOW. MIN RH'S THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
30%. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT, OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS, WITH
THE ONE EXCEPTION ON SUNDAY WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY WINDS.
ON SUNDAY WE COULD SEE SOME BREEZY EAST WINDS FOR LOCATIONS EAST
OF THE RIO GRANDE AND BREEZY WEST WINDS FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE
RIVER. AFTER THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION ON SUNDAY WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MIN RH'S RUN AT OR ABOVE 20% THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. VENT RATES TODAY WILL BE POOR AND ONLY SLIGHTLY
BETTER ON SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 53 38 52 / 90 100 90 70
SIERRA BLANCA 38 46 27 42 / 90 100 90 80
LAS CRUCES 41 51 33 49 / 90 100 90 50
ALAMOGORDO 40 51 25 44 / 90 100 100 60
CLOUDCROFT 29 32 15 24 / 100 100 100 60
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 41 53 32 49 / 90 100 90 30
SILVER CITY 39 46 27 44 / 90 100 90 40
DEMING 43 56 36 54 / 90 100 90 50
LORDSBURG 42 53 31 50 / 90 100 90 40
WEST EL PASO METRO 47 52 39 51 / 90 100 90 60
DELL CITY 32 43 20 39 / 90 100 90 60
FORT HANCOCK 44 56 32 52 / 90 100 90 70
LOMA LINDA 39 45 28 41 / 90 100 90 70
FABENS 44 55 34 53 / 90 100 90 70
SANTA TERESA 45 52 36 51 / 90 100 90 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 45 52 35 49 / 90 100 90 60
JORNADA RANGE 42 52 29 49 / 90 100 90 50
HATCH 41 57 32 53 / 90 100 90 40
COLUMBUS 46 57 40 54 / 90 100 90 60
OROGRANDE 41 49 27 45 / 100 100 90 70
MAYHILL 27 41 15 36 / 90 100 90 60
MESCALERO 31 43 17 34 / 100 100 100 60
TIMBERON 29 39 18 33 / 90 100 90 70
WINSTON 30 48 19 42 / 90 100 90 30
HILLSBORO 39 54 29 49 / 90 100 90 40
SPACEPORT 38 53 26 49 / 90 100 90 40
LAKE ROBERTS 35 46 25 44 / 90 100 90 40
HURLEY 37 50 29 48 / 90 100 90 40
CLIFF 39 52 27 52 / 90 100 90 40
MULE CREEK 37 49 27 47 / 90 100 90 30
FAYWOOD 41 49 32 47 / 90 100 90 40
ANIMAS 44 55 35 53 / 90 100 100 40
HACHITA 43 54 35 52 / 90 100 100 40
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 56 36 54 / 90 100 100 60
CLOVERDALE 44 49 37 48 / 90 100 100 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
NM...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY
FOR OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 5 AM SATURDAY TO 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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