798
FXUS64 KEPZ 241108
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
408 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 407 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
- COMPLEX INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNDAY.
- 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET WILL SEE HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
- UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH UP TO 0.20" OF ICE IS POSSIBLE FOR
HUDSPETH COUNTY WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE
TULAROSA AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING, INCLUDING EL
PASO. THIS AREA HAS THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY FOR SNOW AND ICE
TOTALS.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR EASTERN AREAS AND AS COLD AS 15 BELOW FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1025 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2026
THE MAJOR WINTER STORM THAT IS SET TO AFFECT A LARGE CHUNK OF THE
COUNTRY IS UNDERWAY WITH THE CENTER OF THE UL LOW STILL OFF THE
BAJA COAST, PUSHING ANOMALOUSLY MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF IT. MULTIPLE
SMALL SCALE IMPULSES AHEAD OF THE LOW ARE AIDING IN PRECIPITATION
PRODUCTION INCLUDING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING VIA MULTIPLE WAVES. EXPECT ON AND
OFF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH MORE SUSTAINED PRECIP
EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON LASTING WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE PRECIPITATION BECOMES MORE SCATTERED AS AN IMPULSE
NOW OVER SOUTHERN ID MERGES WITH OUR BAJA LOW AND EXITS INTO THE
PLAINS BY MID-DAY SUNDAY, TAKING ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION WITH
IT.
WE ARE STILL ON TRACK TO RECEIVE A GENEROUS AMOUNT OF RAINFALL
FROM THIS SYSTEM. NBM 50TH PERCENTILE BRINGS 0.75-1.00"+ OF
ADDITIONAL LIQUID TO AREAS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE,
TRENDING DOWN TO ABOUT 0.60" FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE AZ BORDER AND
THE GILA. THERE WILL BE LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS FOR ANYWHERE THAT
SEES AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM. THE MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION
REMAINS, "HOW MUCH WILL FALL AS FREEZING OR FROZEN PRECIPITATION?"
WELL, THAT HAS CHANGED. TRUE TO FORM FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS DONE A
MISERABLE JOB WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE ARCTIC AIR. ARCTIC AIR
HAS ALREADY SPILLED INTO LINCOLN COUNTY WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING
AROUND 30 DEGREES. SNOW WAS FALLING IN CLOUDCROFT. IT'S A BIT
DIFFICULT TO SAY THE PRECIP TYPE IN MAYHILL, BUT THE SKY CAMERAS
THERE SHOW A LAYER OF ICE ON THEM. MODELS HAVE CAUGHT ONTO THIS
COLDER TREND SHOWING MUCH OF THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A MIXTURE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS, I DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES
OF SNOW PLUS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS,
ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST SLOPE AREAS TOWARD CHAVES AND LINCOLN
COUNTY. I ALSO MOVED THE START TIME BACK TO 9PM, WHICH MEANS IT IS
VALID AT THE TIME OF THIS WRITING. TEMPERATURES WERE TRICKY AS
WELL SINCE THE NBM HAS A TIME LAG, AND WHAT'S IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST ON WEATHER.GOV MAY BE A TAD TOO WARM. NEVERTHELESS, THERE
MAY BE A VARIETY OF PRECIP TYPES FOR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGHOUT THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES WEST
ONCE AND FOR GOOD LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.
INTO THE LOWLANDS, TRENDS ARE COLDER AND THEREFORE SNOWIER AND
ICIER. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS SUB-FREEZING AIR ENTRENCHING ITSELF
INTO PORTIONS OF HUDSPETH COUNTY FOR SATURDAY, MEANING A LONGER
WINDOW FOR FREEZING RAIN. THE QUICKER PUSH TO THE WEST AND COLDER
AIR BEHIND IT HAS RAMPED UP SNOWFALL TOTALS IN ALL DETERMINISTIC
SOLUTIONS AS WELL AS ICE ACCUMULATIONS. MOST DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE NOW BRINGS SNOW WELL INTO THE TULAROSA BASIN WITH COLD
AIR DAMMING ALONG THE FRANKLINS BEFORE COLD AIR SPILLS SOUTH INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY, WITH SOME GUIDANCE GIVING THESE AREAS 1 TO
3 INCHES FOR THE TULAROSA BASIN AND UP TO AN INCH ON THE RIO
GRANDE SIDE, INCLUDING CENTRAL AND EAST EL PASO, ALONG WITH SOME
ICE ACCUMULATION FROM FREEZING RAIN. IT IS FOOLISH TO CHASE MODELS
GIVEN THE ABRUPT REVERSAL IN TRENDS, SO I DID NOT CHANGE ANY
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE LOWLANDS EXCEPT TO UP THE WORDING
ON THE EXISTING ADVISORY. IF TRENDS CONTINUE THOUGH, MORE WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES OR UPGRADES MAY BE NEEDED. KEEP CHECKING BACK
WITH THE FORECAST.
IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW AND ICE, IT WILL BE COLD. OUR EASTERN
AREAS WILL SEE LOWS WELL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS.
FACTORING IN WIND, WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE AS LOW AS 5 IN
HUDSPETH COUNTY AND 15 BELOW ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
THOSE VALUES ARE NEAR EXTREME COLD WARNING CRITERIA. AS SUCH, I
WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS FOR MUCH OF HUDSPETH COUNTY AND THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. ELSEWHERE, LOWS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S,
ESPECIALLY MONDAY MORNING. FOR SUNDAY MORNING'S LOW IT WILL DEPEND
ON FAR WEST AND HOW STRONG THE COLD FRONT PUSHES. TUESDAY MORNING
WILL BE VERY COLD AS WELL, SO MORE ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED ON
FUTURE FORECAST UPDATES.
FOLLOWING OUR WINTER STORM, THE REST OF THE WEEK, MONDAY ONWARD,
WILL SEE QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
GRADUALLY RECOVER THOUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE.
FINALLY, BY FRIDAY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A COMPACT LOW THAT
WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PRECIP AND MAYBE SOME WIND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
MOSTLY MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SCT-BKN060 OVC150 LAYERS TO 300.
SCATTERED OVC040 6SM -SHRA WITH OCCASIONAL BKN-OVC010 3-5SM SHRA
BR. OVER THE SACRAMENTO MTNS...WIDESPREAD OVC030 3-5SM -SN WITH
ISOLATED OVC010 1SM SN BR. AFTER 18Z...ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER LOWLANDS OF OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLY SPREADING TO EL PASO AND SIERRA COUNTIES
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS THIS MORNING
BECOMING WEST 7-10 KNOTS WEST OF THE RG VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON,
AND EAST/SOUTHEAST 8-12 KNOTS TO THE EAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 407 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. LOWLAND
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH SOME SNOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE LOWLANDS FROM THE RG VALLEY EAST LATE TONIGHT.
ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD END AROUND NOON SUNDAY, WITH TEMPERATURES
TURNING CHILLY. DRY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
GRADUALLY WARMING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL. NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD, LEADING TO RATHER UNFAVORABLE VENT
RATES.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 65-80% TODAY DECREASING TO 30-45% SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAINS 80-95% TODAY DECREASING TO 20-30% GILA/BLACK
RANGE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, AND 35-50% SACRAMENTO MTNS SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. VENT RATES POOR-FAIR THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 30 44 24 46 / 100 80 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 21 32 15 36 / 100 90 0 0
LAS CRUCES 30 44 22 45 / 90 70 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 23 39 15 41 / 100 80 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 13 23 8 28 / 100 80 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 27 44 23 46 / 80 50 0 0
SILVER CITY 29 45 22 46 / 80 50 0 0
DEMING 35 52 24 51 / 80 60 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 51 23 50 / 80 40 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 32 43 27 43 / 100 80 0 0
DELL CITY 17 31 7 32 / 90 80 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 28 42 19 46 / 100 90 0 0
LOMA LINDA 21 33 19 34 / 100 90 0 0
FABENS 29 42 20 44 / 100 90 0 0
SANTA TERESA 33 44 23 43 / 100 80 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 29 43 24 43 / 90 80 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 29 44 18 45 / 90 70 0 0
HATCH 31 49 21 50 / 80 60 0 0
COLUMBUS 40 53 27 50 / 90 70 0 0
OROGRANDE 23 38 16 40 / 100 80 0 0
MAYHILL 8 34 9 40 / 100 80 0 0
MESCALERO 13 33 10 37 / 100 80 0 0
TIMBERON 13 29 10 33 / 100 80 0 0
WINSTON 20 41 13 42 / 80 50 0 0
HILLSBORO 27 46 23 46 / 80 50 0 0
SPACEPORT 24 44 17 46 / 80 60 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 27 44 16 46 / 80 50 0 0
HURLEY 29 48 21 47 / 70 50 0 0
CLIFF 28 52 15 53 / 80 40 0 0
MULE CREEK 29 47 11 50 / 80 30 0 0
FAYWOOD 32 47 25 46 / 70 60 0 0
ANIMAS 37 53 25 51 / 90 40 0 0
HACHITA 36 52 23 49 / 90 50 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 38 54 26 51 / 100 60 0 0
CLOVERDALE 37 48 30 46 / 90 60 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT
BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS.
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR OTERO MESA.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-SIERRA
COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
MONDAY FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page