276
FXUS64 KEPZ 242333
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
433 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 427 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
- COMPLEX INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP A MIXED BAG OF LIQUID, FREEZING, AND FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE
TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET WILL 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET OF SNOWFALL TOTALS.
- UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WITH UP TO 0.20" OF ICE IS POSSIBLE FOR
HUDSPETH COUNTY WITH AREAS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS EARLY
AS SATURDAY MORNING.
- THERE IS AN INCREASING RISK FOR SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW FOR THE
TULAROSA AND RIO GRANDE VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING, INCLUDING EL
PASO. THIS AREA HAS THE HIGHEST UNCERTAINTY FOR SNOW AND ICE
TOTALS.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR EASTERN AREAS AND AS COLD AS 15 BELOW FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
WE ARE RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF OUR CURRENT STORM SYSTEM, WITH THE
MAIN TROUGHS AND FORCING YET TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY
AND OVERNIGHT, BEFORE IT SLIDES OVER THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING,
AND OUT OF THE AREA AFTER MIDDAY ON SUNDAY. ALREADY THIS SYSTEM
HAS PUT A LOT OF MOISTURE OVER AND INTO THE REGION. WITH A LOW OFF
THE BAJA AND DEEP SW FLOW IT'S FRONT SIDE, WE HAVE BEEN UNDER A
STREAM OF DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN PLENTY
OF PRECIPITATION. ALREADY NEARLY ALL THE REGION HAS SEEN OVER 1/2"
OF PRECIP. WITH MANY LOCATIONS OVER 1.0". WE ARE STILL WATCHING
THE WEDGE OF COLD ARCTIC AIR, WHICH HAS BEEN DAMMED UP TO OUR EAST
ALONG THE SAC AND GUAD MOUNTAINS. TODAY, IT IS FINALLY BEGINNING
TO OOZE WEST THROUGH THE GAPS AND INTO HUDSPETH AND OTERO
COUNTIES, WHERE TEMPS ARE NOW SUB-FREEZING AND PRECIP IS BECOMING
EITHER FREEZING OR FROZEN. OUR SACS HAVE BEEN A MIX OR RA AND SN,
WITH PERIODS OF FREEZING PRECIP, AND NOW POWER OUTAGES. IT IS HARD
TO VERIFY, BUT CONDITIONS ARE PERFECT FOR FREEZING RAIN/ICING OF
SURFACES OVER THE SE LOWLANDS/OTERO MESA AREA OF OTERO COUNTY, AND
FOR MUCH OF HUDSPETH COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON. TXDOT CAMERAS DO SHOW
SOME ICY LENS. CLOUDCROFT HAS ACCUMULATED AND MELTED OFF SEVERAL
TIMES, BUT IS NOW COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP SNOW AND CONTINUE WITH
ADDING TO ACCUMULATIONS 8-12" IS A GOOD CALL FOR TOTAL SNOW BY
TOMORROW MORNING, BUT 15" IS POSSIBLE.
TODAY'S TEMPS ACROSS AREAS OVER THE RGV AND EAST ARE PRETTY FLAT
TODAY DUE TO CLOUDS, RAIN, AND AND EASTERLY INFLUENCE THAT IS
SLOWLY GETTING THE COOLER AIR ADVECTED IN. THAT EAST PUSH WILL BE
ENHANCED AFTER SUNSET AND WE SHOULD SEE THE FREEZING TEMPERATURES
WASH IN FROM THE EAST ACROSS OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES INTO
EASTERN DONA ANA, SIERRA, AND EL PASO COUNTIES. IN ADDITION, THERE
WILL BE COOLER AIR SLIDING SOUTH DOWN THE RGV OUT OF SOCORRO CO
INTO SIERRA CO. AS THIS COOLER AIR SLIDES IN, WE WILL ALSO SEE
ANOTHER SLUG OF MOISTURE, DYNAMICS, AND PRECIPITATION STREAM
ACROSS THE AREA. A SECOND TROUGH DROPS IN, AND SWINGS ACROSS FROM
THE NW...TO GIVE THE REGION ANOTHER WINDOW OF ENHANCED FORCING,
BRINGING ANOTHER SHOT OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION. FOR THE SACS AND
AREAS EAST OF EL PASO, THIS MEANS MORE ACCUMULATING SNOW. FOR EL
PASO, LAS CRUCES, AND TORC, THIS MEAN POTENTIAL FOR A PRECP TYPE
CHANCE TO A MIX OR TO STRAIGHT SNOW BETWEEN 10 TO MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. FOR TORC, THEY GET COOLER, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY COULD
SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW. EL PASO AND LAS CRUCES, BARELY GET TO
FREEZING, SO SNOW IS LIKELY, BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL STRUGGLE,
UNLESS WE GET PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL THAT CAN OVERCOME MELTING
ON WARMER GROUND. THESE AREAS COULD SEE UP TO AN INCH OVER THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS/VALLEYS, WITH 1-3" ON THE HILLS, FRANKLINS, AND
ORGANS. THE SACS REMAIN IN A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW
TONIGHT.
THE BACKSIDE OF TONIGHT'S TROUGH PASSAGE, PASSES ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING TOMORROW, WITH THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE RGV
AROUND NOON, AND EAST OF THE REGION AFTER 3 PM. THIS MEANS PCPN
CHANCES, MOSTLY, IF NOT ALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW, THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS SUNDAY, ENDING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS. THIS WILL BE THE WINDOW IN WHICH THE LOWLAND COULD SEE THE
BEST CHANCES FOR ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. BY NOON, IT APPEARS THAT
MOST OF OUR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ZONES WILL BE DONE WITH PCPN, AND
CLEARING OUT, WHILE WE MAY STILL HAVE LINGERING, LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OVER EL PASO, HUDSPETH, AND S OTERO COUNTIES, RAPIDLY
DIMINISHING. THE AFTERNOON WILL BE COLD RELATIVE TO NORMAL. OUR
FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS ARE IN A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR SNOWFALL, AND ACCUMULATIONS OF OVER 1".
THE NEXT SEVERAL MORNINGS WILL BE QUITE COLD, ESPECIALLY OVER OUR
EASTERN AREAS. THE WINDS WON'T BE STRONG, BUT JUST ENOUGH FOR WIND
CHILLS TO DIP BELOW ZERO IN THE SACS, AND SINGLE DIGITS OVER
EASTERN OTERO AND HUDSPETH COUNTIES. THUS THEY ARE IN COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL BE COLD, WITH LOWS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S (BELOW NORMAL), BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY COLD TO WARRANT
ADVISORIES.
THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS FAIR AND TRANQUIL, WITH DRY NE AND W FLOW AS
TROUGHING TRANSITIONS TO MINOR RIDGING. A WEAK TROUGH PASSES TO
OUR NORTH AND PUSHED ANOTHER MINOR COLD FRONT IN FOR WEDNESDAY.
OUR CURRENT FRONT, PLUS THE WEDNESDAY FRONT, WILL GIVE US A WEEK
OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S, AND
LOWS IN THE 20S AND 30S. WEATHER WILL BE DRY, WITH PLENTY OF SUN
THROUGH WED, THEN SOME CLOUDS TO END THE WEEK. WINDS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT. MODELS ARE SHOWING A PASSING TROUGH AT THE END OF
NEXT WEEK, WITH SOME HINTS AT MORE PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT THE
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE BACKING OFF ON THAT SOLUTION, WHICH WOULD
MEAN MORE DRY CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, FOR NOW WE DO HAVE A MIX OF
RAIN AND SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 427 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA BRINGING WITH
IT MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS VIA SHRA, FG, AND SN. ALL SITES WILL
SEE RA THROUGH AT LEAST 6Z, BUT MUCH COLDER AIR WILL BEGIN
FILTERING INTO THE AREA WITH A CHANGEOVER TO SN EXPECTED BETWEEN
6Z AND 9Z. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FZRA WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TCS WILL
SEE A CHANGEOVER AROUND 8Z AND LRU WILL SEE A CHANGEOVER LAST
AROUND 12Z THOUGH THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING. DMN
SHOULD REMAIN ALL RA. TO ADD TO THIS, PERIODS OF FG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH VIS BELOW 1/4SM, WHICH IS ONGOING AT LRU.
WINDS WILL PICK UP TO AROUND 10 KNOTS AROUND THE TIME OF PRECIP
CHANGEOVER WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLDER AIR. ALL PRECIP IS
EXPECTED TO WRAP UP BY 18Z SUNDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1049 AM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NEAR NIL DUE TO THE ONGOING STORM SYSTEM
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, DESPITE THE
GILA REGION MISSING OUT ON MOST OF THE ACCUMULATIONS OF BOTH RAIN
AND SNOW. WITH THE SLOW PASSAGE OF TWO UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEMS BRINGING TONS OF MOISTURE, THE TEMPERATURES ARE WELL BELOW
NORMAL, RH IS EXCEEDINGLY ELEVATED, CLOUDS ARE SOLID, THICK, AND
LOW. THE SACS WILL SEE 8-15" OF SNOW, AND WELL OVER 1" OF LIQUID,
BEFORE THIS IS OVER SUNDAY MORNING. THE GILA WILL SEE ONLY LIGHT
SNOW, AND 0.50 TO 0.75" OF LIQUID. MOST OF THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE
A GOOD, AND SLOW SOAKING OF 0.50 TO 1.50". THIS WILL DEFINITELY
MOISTEN FUELS AND DROP ERCS BELOW THE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS THE
REGION. THE SYSTEM EXITS SUNDAY MIDDAY, WITH DRY, BUT CHILLY, NW
FLOW BACK OVER THE REGION. THE PRECIP WILL END, AND CLOUDS WILL
ERODE. MINRH WILL DROP OFF QUICKLY, INTO THE TEENS AND 20% RANGE
GILA, BUT REMAIN UP IN THE 20-30% RANGE ALL OTHER AREAS. NIGHT
MAXRH WILL BE GOOD. THE WEEK AHEAD LOOKS MOSTLY DRY, UNTIL WEEK'S
END. SUNNY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM MAY QUICKLY SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION, WITH LESSER PRECIPITATION CHANCES, BUT LATEST
MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON THAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 30 44 24 46 / 100 80 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 20 31 14 35 / 90 100 0 0
LAS CRUCES 30 43 22 45 / 100 70 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 22 38 15 41 / 100 80 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 12 23 9 27 / 100 90 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 27 44 24 45 / 90 40 0 0
SILVER CITY 29 45 22 45 / 90 40 0 0
DEMING 31 51 24 50 / 90 60 0 0
LORDSBURG 33 50 22 49 / 90 40 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 31 43 26 44 / 100 80 0 0
DELL CITY 16 30 8 32 / 100 70 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 27 42 19 45 / 100 90 0 0
LOMA LINDA 18 31 19 35 / 100 90 0 0
FABENS 27 42 20 45 / 100 90 0 0
SANTA TERESA 32 43 22 44 / 100 80 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 28 41 24 43 / 100 80 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 28 44 17 45 / 100 80 0 0
HATCH 31 48 21 50 / 90 70 0 0
COLUMBUS 40 52 27 50 / 90 60 0 0
OROGRANDE 22 36 15 39 / 100 90 0 0
MAYHILL 7 32 9 39 / 100 80 0 0
MESCALERO 12 32 9 37 / 100 80 0 0
TIMBERON 13 29 10 34 / 100 90 0 0
WINSTON 20 41 14 42 / 90 40 0 0
HILLSBORO 28 46 24 46 / 80 50 0 0
SPACEPORT 25 44 18 45 / 90 60 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 25 44 19 47 / 80 40 0 0
HURLEY 30 48 21 47 / 80 40 0 0
CLIFF 30 52 20 53 / 80 30 0 0
MULE CREEK 27 48 20 49 / 80 20 0 0
FAYWOOD 31 47 25 45 / 90 50 0 0
ANIMAS 37 52 24 50 / 90 40 0 0
HACHITA 37 51 23 49 / 90 50 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 37 53 25 51 / 100 60 0 0
CLOVERDALE 31 47 30 46 / 100 60 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-RIO GRANDE VALLEY
OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE
VALLEY OF EASTERN HUDSPETH COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
MONDAY FOR NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT
BASIN-SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS.
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST SUNDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
SUNDAY FOR EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-SIERRA
COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/WHITE SANDS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST
MONDAY FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-
OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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