069
FXUS64 KEPZ 251158
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
458 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 428 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
- COMPLEX INTERACTION OF UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS AND A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP A MIXED BAG OF LIQUID, FREEZING, AND FROZEN
PRECIPITATION ONGOING ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
- 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW TOTAL WITH ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO
ONE TENTH OF AN INCH IS FORECAST FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS.
AREAS ABOVE 9500 FEET WILL 1.5 TO 2.0 FEET OF SNOWFALL TOTALS.
- UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL IN THE TULAROSA BASIN AND
PORTIONS OF HUDSEPTH COUNTY, WITH UP TO AN INCH IN EL PASO.
- BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS FOR EASTERN AREAS AND AS COLD AS 15 BELOW FOR THE
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNINGS.
- CHILLY AND DRY EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 935 PM MST SAT JAN 24 2026
OUR COUNTRY'S BIG WINTER STORM CONTINUES WITH LOCAL IMPACTS
ALREADY UNDERWAY. THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ARE ALL SNOW AT THIS
POINT WITH IMPACTS REPORTED FROM PREVIOUS SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS. IT IS HARD TO SAY THE PRECIP TYPE OVER HUDSPETH
COUNTY, BUT PORTIONS HAVE BEEN IN THE 20S, SO ANY PRECIP THERE IS
FROZEN OR FREEZING. THIS COLDER AIR IS MAKING A VERY SLOW MOVE TO
THE WEST, BEING HELD BACK BY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE BAJA LOW IS PASSING JUST TO OUR SOUTH. THE BACK EDGE OF
PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THIS S/W HAS CLEARED THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE CWA. THE BREAK BEHIND IT WON'T LAST LONG THOUGH AS ANOTHER S/W
TROUGH IS APPROACHING US FROM NE AZ. THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS MOVING THROUGH THE GILA INTO
SIERRA COUNTY. ONCE THIS LAST TROUGH CLEARS THE AREA, SOMETIME
SUNDAY MORNING, IT WILL TAKE PRECIP CHANCES WITH IT.
A VERY GENEROUS AMOUNT OF PRECIP HAS ALREADY FALLEN WITH RADAR
ESTIMATES SHOWING 0.5-1.00" OF RAINFALL FROM THE AZ BORDER TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, WITH THE REST OF THE CWA RECEIVING 1.00-1.50",
LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 2". IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ANOTHER
0.25-0.5", LOCALLY HIGHER, COULD FALL. WEST OF THE SLOW MOVING
ARCTIC FRONT WILL FALL AS RAIN, EAST OF THE FRONT WILL BE
PREDOMINATELY SNOW. GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED DOWN WESTWARD PROGRESSION
OF THE FRONT, BUT IT WILL STILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE ARRIVAL OF
THE COLDER AIR AND WHEN PRECIPITATION ENDS. GUIDANCE HAS BACKED
OFF FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR EL PASO AND ACROSS SIERRA COUNTY, BUT
FOR THE MOST PART, THE REST OF THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LOOKS
GOOD. CURRENT FORECAST FALLS SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS (1") IN EL
PASO, BUT I DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO WALK BACK THE PRODUCT AS
1" OR SO IS STILL CERTAINLY POSSIBLE IF THE COLDER AIR CAN ARRIVE
SOON ENOUGH.
SPEAKING OF THE COLD, TOMORROW MORNING'S TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN
ZONES WILL BE DOWN RIGHT FRIGID WITH TEMPS IN THE TEENS AND WIND
CHILL VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS, BELOW ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS.
BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE ENTIRE CWA
WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S COMMON, FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS HUDSPETH COUNTY AND NEAR ZERO IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR
THIS REASON A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
HUDSPETH COUNTY AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF OTERO COUNTY FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL NOT BE QUITE
COLD ENOUGH TO NEED HEADLINES. TUESDAY WILL BE RATHER CHILLY TOO,
AND THE COLD WEATHER ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR THE SAME
AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY SLOWLY RECOVER NEXT WEEK, POSSIBLY REACHING
NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST WILL BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL GRADUALLY NUDGE
EAST WHILE A LONG-WAVE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS. IT WILL BE QUICKLY DAMPENED OUT BY PASSING S/W TROUGHS.
THESE SAME S/W TROUGHS WILL ALSO SLOW OUR WARMING TREND VIA WEAK
FRONTS. EARLIER MODEL RUNS SHOWED A COMPACT UL LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA ON FRIDAY. THERE ARE STILL HINTS OF THAT, BUT LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED PRECIP OUT OF OUR AREA. NBM STILL HAS SOME
PHANTOM POPS FOR FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
WE ARE GETTING CLOSER TO THE END OF THIS WINTER WEATHER EVENT.
CURRENTLY WE HAVE A COLD RAIN FALLING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA, BUT
SNOW IS FALLING EAST OF KELP AND IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. COLD
AIR CONTINUES TO SEEP INTO THE REGION SO WE COULD SEE A TURN OVER
TO SNOW LATER THIS MORNING. WITH THE RAIN AND SNOW WE WILL HAVE
LOW CEILINGS IN THE LIFR RANGE OF THINGS. BY LATE THIS MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS GIVING
US THIS PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST AND WE WILL QUICKLY
CLEAR OUT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. WITH LOTS OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES AND COLD AIR, THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST SUN JAN 25 2026
AFTER TODAY WE WILL HAVE A COOL AND DRY WEEK WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS AND MIN RH'S AT OR ABOVE 20%. FOR TODAY WE WILL FINISH OUT
THIS WINTER STORM SYSTEM WITH SOME MORE RAIN AND SNOW IN THE
LOWLANDS AND SNOW MAINLY IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. BUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON, OUR SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT BUT WE WILL HAVE COLD
TEMPERATURES. VENT RATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL HOVER NEAR
FAIR RANGE OF THINGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 21 47 22 52 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 11 38 16 45 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 20 45 19 50 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 11 41 14 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 8 27 12 35 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 24 45 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 24 45 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 24 50 22 54 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 22 48 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 26 45 26 49 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 6 34 9 38 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 19 47 22 51 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 18 36 20 42 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 20 46 20 50 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 21 45 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 20 43 20 49 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 14 44 15 50 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 19 49 18 54 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 27 50 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 13 39 15 44 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 11 39 15 49 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 11 37 15 45 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 11 33 14 40 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 13 42 16 51 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 24 46 25 53 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 15 45 15 50 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 19 47 21 55 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 20 47 21 53 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 20 52 21 58 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 24 49 25 55 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 26 45 27 52 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 26 50 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 24 48 22 53 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 26 50 25 54 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 30 46 30 53 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR SALT BASIN-
SOUTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR
EASTERN/CENTRAL EL PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH
HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL
PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN
HUDSPETH COUNTY-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR NORTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-SALT BASIN-SOUTHERN
HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS.
NM...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR EAST
SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR EAST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-
SOUTHEAST TULAROSA BASIN-WEST CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE
SANDS.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST MONDAY FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-OTERO MESA-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
BELOW 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...15-BRICE
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