604
FXUS64 KEPZ 110452
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
952 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 949 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
- FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR AREA
WIDE RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW, FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- FAIR WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY, BEFORE THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH STARTS TO BRING INCREASED WINDS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
OUR LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST WITH VERY
LITTLE PRECIPITATION DROPPED ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS OUR REGION WILL SIT UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, ANCHORED
OVER W TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION FAIR AND MILD,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE WILL HAVE A
DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF HIGH AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM, AND OUT IN TIME, WE SEE ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH COMING ASHORE OVER THE SCAL COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER, AND PASSES ACROSS
OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL TAP
A FAIR AMOUNT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN,
WHAT LOOKS TO BE AREA WIDE SHOWERS UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SW NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND SPREAD EAST, CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS
PROGRESSIVE, AND MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN CLEARING IT OUT OF OUR
AREA BY MID DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A WARM SYSTEM, WITH SNOW LEVEL
STAYING ABOVE 7500 FT. EXPECTED RAIN ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH, SNOW ABOVE 7500 FT LIKELY IN THE 1-3" RANGE.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, WE WILL BE UNDER A DRY NW FLOW,
WITH SOME COOLING, ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES, AND GENERALLY BREEZY
NW WINDS. SUNDAY WE WILL BE UNDER A PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING OF THE WINDS, FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS, AND A
BIT OF WARMING. MONDAY WE SEE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO SLIP EAST, AS
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH STARTS TO IMPINGE ON THE WEST COAST. WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE TIGHTENING PRESSURE HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT, WARM LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND DEEPER MIXING, ALLOWING FOR A BREEZY
AFTERNOON, AND THE START OF A FEW DAYS OF INCREASED WINDS, AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM LINGERS TO OUR WEST, AND LOOKS TO PASS GENERALLY TO OUR
NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CLEARED BEHIND
TODAY'S PASSING SYSTEM, BUT HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING BACK IN FROM THE
WEST. EXPECT BKN TO OVC AT 25 KFT DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AT 3-7 KNOTS AND VRB IN DIRECTION.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 929 AM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY WITH MIN RHS ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. LOWLAND MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20% TO AS HIGH AS
45% SOME DAYS AND MOUNTAIN MIN RHS WILL BE 40-60%. THERE WILL BE A
COUPLE OF SHOTS FOR PRECIPITATION. FIRST CHANCE BEING TODAY BUT
ONLY LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF EL PASO. NEXT SHOT
WILL BE FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES ARE FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. CRITICAL MIN RHS RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR THE
DESERT LOWLANDS. 20 FOOT WIND SPEEDS STAY FAIRLY CALM THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK WITH SPEEDS 10-15 MPH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 47 75 48 75 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 42 68 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 42 70 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 43 70 44 72 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 33 50 35 51 / 0 0 0 10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 71 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 65 42 64 / 0 10 0 0
DEMING 43 74 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 43 71 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 49 73 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 40 69 41 74 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 45 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 44 67 45 67 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 46 76 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 45 72 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 47 72 48 72 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 71 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 42 75 42 75 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 47 74 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 43 70 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 35 64 37 65 / 0 0 0 10
MESCALERO 35 62 37 62 / 0 0 0 10
TIMBERON 38 57 39 59 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 34 64 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 69 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 40 70 39 72 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 38 64 37 64 / 0 10 0 0
HURLEY 40 67 40 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 40 72 40 71 / 0 10 0 0
MULE CREEK 41 67 40 66 / 0 10 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 67 44 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 44 73 45 72 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 72 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 73 43 73 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 45 67 46 65 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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