287
FXUS64 KEPZ 111159
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
459 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 120 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
- FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY, WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
- NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES FOR AREA WIDE
RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW, FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
- FAIR WEATHER RETURNS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY, BEFORE THE
NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH STARTS TO BRING INCREASED WINDS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 949 PM MST TUE FEB 10 2026
OUR LATEST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS PASSED TO OUR EAST WITH VERY
LITTLE PRECIPITATION DROPPED ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE NEXT 48
HOURS OUR REGION WILL SIT UNDER A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM, ANCHORED
OVER W TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL KEEP OUR REGION FAIR AND MILD,
WITH DRY CONDITIONS, AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WE WILL HAVE A
DEEP SW FLOW ALOFT WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF HIGH AND SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES.
LOOKING FURTHER UPSTREAM, AND OUT IN TIME, WE SEE ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH COMING ASHORE OVER THE SCAL COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM MOVES EAST ALONG THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER, AND PASSES ACROSS
OUR REGION FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL TAP
A FAIR AMOUNT OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, RESULTING IN,
WHAT LOOKS TO BE AREA WIDE SHOWERS UNDER A DIFFLUENT FLOW AS IT
MOVES EASTWARD. SHOWERS WILL BEGIN SW NEW MEXICO BY FRIDAY MORNING
AND SPREAD EAST, CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM IS
PROGRESSIVE, AND MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN CLEARING IT OUT OF OUR
AREA BY MID DAY ON SATURDAY. THIS IS A WARM SYSTEM, WITH SNOW LEVEL
STAYING ABOVE 7500 FT. EXPECTED RAIN ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A TENTH TO
A QUARTER OF AN INCH, SNOW ABOVE 7500 FT LIKELY IN THE 1-3" RANGE.
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS ON SATURDAY, WE WILL BE UNDER A DRY NW FLOW,
WITH SOME COOLING, ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES, AND GENERALLY BREEZY
NW WINDS. SUNDAY WE WILL BE UNDER A PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE,
ALLOWING FOR A RELAXING OF THE WINDS, FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS, AND A
BIT OF WARMING. MONDAY WE SEE THE UPPER RIDGE BEGIN TO SLIP EAST, AS
THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH STARTS TO IMPINGE ON THE WEST COAST. WE WILL
BEGIN TO SEE TIGHTENING PRESSURE HEIGHT GRADIENTS ALOFT, WARM LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURES, AND DEEPER MIXING, ALLOWING FOR A BREEZY
AFTERNOON, AND THE START OF A FEW DAYS OF INCREASED WINDS, AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM LINGERS TO OUR WEST, AND LOOKS TO PASS GENERALLY TO OUR
NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT150 BKN250 BECOMING
SKC-SCT250 OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS. INCREASING BKN-OVC250 AGAIN AFTER
03Z. SURFACE WINDS VARIABLE AOB 7 KNOTS BECOMING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
8-13 KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 459 AM MST WED FEB 11 2026
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND THURSDAY ACROSS THE FIRE ZONES.
A PACIFIC STORM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS TO THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. SHOWERS COULD BECOME BRIEFLY MODERATE
FRIDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE 9000 FT OR GREATER FRIDAY BUT DROP TO
7000-8000 FT SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE AT
THESE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. BACK TO FAIR WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
LOWLAND MIN HUMIDITIES WILL APPROACH CRITICAL LEVELS (15%) BY
MONDAY.
MIN RH: LOWLANDS 25-35% TODAY AND THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 30-45%
FRIDAY/SATURDAY, THEN BACK TO 15-25% SUNDAY/MONDAY. MOUNTAINS
25-40% TODAY AND THURSDAY, INCREASING TO 35-50% FRIDAY/SATURDAY,
THEN BACK TO 20-35% SUNDAY/MONDAY. VENT RATES GOOD TODAY, POOR-
FAIR THURSDAY, THEN BECOMING VERY GOOD-EXCELLENT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 48 75 52 69 / 0 0 10 60
SIERRA BLANCA 43 73 50 69 / 0 0 10 50
LAS CRUCES 43 70 47 64 / 0 0 10 60
ALAMOGORDO 43 72 45 64 / 0 0 10 60
CLOUDCROFT 35 51 37 45 / 0 10 10 70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 71 46 62 / 0 0 10 60
SILVER CITY 42 64 43 53 / 0 0 10 80
DEMING 43 73 46 65 / 0 0 10 70
LORDSBURG 43 70 47 60 / 0 0 10 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 50 73 54 67 / 0 0 10 60
DELL CITY 41 74 47 71 / 0 0 0 50
FORT HANCOCK 46 77 52 76 / 0 0 10 50
LOMA LINDA 45 67 51 63 / 0 0 10 60
FABENS 46 77 52 71 / 0 0 10 60
SANTA TERESA 45 74 50 65 / 0 0 10 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 48 72 52 65 / 0 0 10 60
JORNADA RANGE 38 74 43 64 / 0 0 10 60
HATCH 41 75 45 66 / 0 0 10 70
COLUMBUS 47 73 50 66 / 0 0 10 60
OROGRANDE 40 72 46 65 / 0 0 10 60
MAYHILL 37 65 40 58 / 0 10 10 60
MESCALERO 37 62 38 56 / 0 10 10 70
TIMBERON 39 59 43 53 / 0 0 10 60
WINSTON 34 66 36 54 / 0 0 10 70
HILLSBORO 44 70 45 61 / 0 0 10 70
SPACEPORT 35 72 41 63 / 0 0 10 60
LAKE ROBERTS 34 64 35 52 / 0 0 10 80
HURLEY 40 67 41 58 / 0 0 10 80
CLIFF 35 71 37 59 / 0 0 10 80
MULE CREEK 32 66 33 55 / 0 0 10 80
FAYWOOD 44 67 46 58 / 0 0 10 80
ANIMAS 45 72 48 62 / 0 0 10 70
HACHITA 43 72 47 62 / 0 0 10 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 73 46 63 / 0 0 10 60
CLOVERDALE 46 65 48 56 / 0 0 10 80
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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