976
FXUS64 KEPZ 121754
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1054 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1100 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
- PACIFIC STORM WILL BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AREA WIDE ON
FRIDAY. SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8,000 FEET.
- MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY A SERIES A
WINDY DAYS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
..TODAY
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PACIFIC LOW WELL OFF THE COAST OF BAJA, BUT
WILL BEGIN A QUICK PROGRESSION EASTWARD TONIGHT. PLENTY OF HIGH
CIRRUS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TODAY, BUT WE'LL REMAIN DRY AND
RATHER WARM WITH LOWLAND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. THIS IS 8-12
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY.
..FRIDAY
PROGRESSIVE UPPER LOW REACHES THE PACIFIC COAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING, MOVING EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS THROUGH THE DAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND COOLER, WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO
NORMAL. SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FETCH COMBINED WITH DIFFLUENT LIFTING
FLOW ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BEGINNING
FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS. BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. TOTAL RAIN QPF IS
0.10-0.25" FOR MOST AREAS, THUS LOW IMPACTS.
COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 8000
FEET, WHICH MEANS HIGH ELEVATIONS SITES LIKE CLOUDCROFT AND PINOS
ALTOS COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FORECAST
SNOW TOTALS ARE MINIMAL WITH THIS QUICK HITTING EVENT, LIKELY LESS
THAN AN INCH FOR THE MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES.
..SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
PACIFIC LOW CROSSES OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WITH
SUBSIDENT, NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE SYSTEM ENDING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES BY DAYBREAK. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM'S EXIT, SO HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN DRY WEATHER RESUMING SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY. BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH SATURDAY AFTERNOON
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, BUT AS WINDS DIMINISH ON
SUNDAY WE SHOULD BE WARMER AGAIN (UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S).
..NEXT WEEK
NEXT WEEK'S WEATHER PATTERN FEATURES CONSISTENT TROUGHING FLOW
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST, WITH A SERIES OF UPPER WAVES PASSING TO
OUR NORTH. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY AS A SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES, THEN WE COULD SEE STRONG WINDS LATE IN THE WEEK
AS THE PRIMARY LOBE OF ENERGY APPROACHES. MODELS DIFFER ON THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS FUTURE JET STREAK, BUT CAN BE
CONFIDENT IN STRONGER WINDS OUT OF THE WEST NEXT WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE RELIANT ON THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF
THESE WAVES. IF THEY MISS US TO THE NORTH, BEST BET WILL BE
STRONGER WINDS, SIGNALING THE START OF THE SPRING WINDY SEASON.
OVERALL, TEMPERATURES LOOK SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
VMC THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD UNDER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SKIES
SCT-BKN200 THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING BKN-OVC150 TONIGHT. CEILINGS
AS LOW AS FL110 FRIDAY MORNING. SURFACE WINDS 220-250 AT 05 TO 10
KNOTS THIS EVENING, THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD -RA TOMORROW ACROSS S NM AND W TX BEGINNING AT THE
END OF THE 18Z TAF WINDOW, THUS NO MENTION THIS CYCLE BUT WILL BE
INCLUDED NEXT FORECAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MST THU FEB 12 2026
PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY, BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. MIN RH 40-60%. BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO
25 MPH ON FRIDAY, SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. GOOD
VENTILATION BOTH DAYS DESPITE CLOUDY SKIES. NEW PRECIPITATION
TOTALS 0.25-0.50" FOR THE MOUNTAIN FORESTS, WITH SNOW LIMITED
MOSTLY TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8,000 FEET. LOW FIRE DANGER THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THIS EXPECTED WETTING.
THE START OF THE SPRING WINDY SEASON LOOKS TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK
WITH A SERIES OF BREEZY TO WINDY AFTERNOONS. WINDS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, LEADING TO VERY GOOD VENTILATION
AND TRANSPORT CONSISTENTLY TO THE ENE. ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
CONDITIONS WILL BE A CONCERN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY DIPS TO CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND FORESTS QUICKLY
DRY, INCREASING ERCS IN THE COMING WEEKS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 53 69 45 67 / 0 50 60 10
SIERRA BLANCA 50 68 41 60 / 0 50 80 20
LAS CRUCES 47 65 40 65 / 0 50 50 10
ALAMOGORDO 47 67 38 64 / 0 50 60 10
CLOUDCROFT 36 47 27 40 / 0 60 70 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 65 41 66 / 0 50 60 0
SILVER CITY 44 58 36 58 / 0 70 60 10
DEMING 47 68 40 66 / 0 60 70 10
LORDSBURG 47 62 40 62 / 0 60 70 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 54 67 46 67 / 0 40 60 10
DELL CITY 46 70 41 65 / 0 40 50 10
FORT HANCOCK 53 74 45 68 / 0 50 70 20
LOMA LINDA 52 63 41 60 / 0 40 60 10
FABENS 53 70 45 68 / 0 50 60 10
SANTA TERESA 51 65 43 66 / 0 40 60 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 53 67 44 66 / 0 50 50 10
JORNADA RANGE 46 66 38 66 / 0 50 60 10
HATCH 46 68 40 70 / 0 50 60 10
COLUMBUS 50 68 44 65 / 0 50 60 0
OROGRANDE 49 65 40 63 / 0 50 60 10
MAYHILL 40 60 32 55 / 0 50 50 10
MESCALERO 37 59 30 53 / 0 60 70 20
TIMBERON 42 56 33 50 / 0 50 60 10
WINSTON 37 58 29 58 / 0 60 50 0
HILLSBORO 46 64 37 66 / 0 60 60 10
SPACEPORT 45 65 35 66 / 0 50 60 10
LAKE ROBERTS 40 57 32 58 / 0 80 60 10
HURLEY 43 61 35 60 / 0 70 60 10
CLIFF 43 63 36 65 / 0 70 60 10
MULE CREEK 42 59 34 61 / 10 80 70 10
FAYWOOD 47 60 38 63 / 0 60 70 10
ANIMAS 48 63 40 63 / 0 60 80 0
HACHITA 47 64 40 62 / 0 50 70 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 47 64 39 63 / 0 50 70 0
CLOVERDALE 47 57 40 57 / 0 60 80 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...30-DENNHARDT
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