858
FXUS64 KEPZ 131756
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1056 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 927 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
- PACIFIC STORM BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SNOW WILL BE LIMITED TO ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8,000 FEET WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS.
- MILD AND DRY THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY BREEZY TO WINDY DAYS
STARTING MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 927 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
OUR PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM IS MOVING INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING
AND LOWERING CLOUDS TODAY. VIRGA AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE
CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED ON RADAR AND AT THE SFC, MAINLY W OF THE
RGV. HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MODELED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WE GET BETTER DYNAMICS AND A
TOUCH OF INSTABILITY. ONE RAIN BAND WILL FORM FROM ABOUT EL PASO
NORTHEASTWARD BY MIDDAY WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS OVER THE
GILA, BOTH PROGRESSING TO THE NE INTO THE EVENING. A SECOND ROUND
OF SHOWERS IS MODELED TO MOVE INTO SW NM FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT,
DISSIPATING TO THE EAST BY THE MORNING. MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL
BE LIGHT WITH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL OF GENERALLY 0.10" EXPECTED
THROUGH TONIGHT, NEAR OR ABOVE 0.25" IN THE STRONGER SHOWERS.
OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL RESULT IN HIGHER QPF FOR THE SACS,
ESPECIALLY THE SW RIDGES AND WEST SLOPES.
SNOW LEVELS START OUT AROUND 10KFT OR HIGHER TODAY, FALLING ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO 8-9KFT TONIGHT AS THE CORE OF THE LOW COMES ACROSS.
ALMOST ALL PRECIP WILL BE RAIN TODAY WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX ABOVE
8KFT TONIGHT. LOCATIONS DOWN THE SUNSPOT HWY SOUTH OF CLOUDCROFT
COULD SEE UP TO 2" OF SNOW BY SAT MORNING, BUT MORE LIKELY WILL
SEE A T-1" DUE TO MARGINAL SFC TEMPS. SIMILAR TOTALS ARE FORECAST
FOR THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE BLACKS NORTH OF EMORY PASS. THE
PRECIP IS FORECAST TO WIND DOWN SAT MORNING AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES
TO THE EAST AND DRY AIR TAKES OVER BEHIND IT. OTHER THAN LINGERING
SHOWERS IN HUDSPETH SAT AM, VALENTINE'S DAY WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY
WITH WINDS OF 15-25 MPH AND GUSTS TO 35 MPH. TODAY WILL ALSO BE
BREEZY FROM THE SW, SHIFTING WNW FOR SAT.
LESS WIND AND WARMER FOR SUN UNDER AN UPPER RIDGE. A SPRINGTIME
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP FOR NEXT WEEK AS TROUGHING DEVELOPS ACROSS
THE WESTERN US, WHICH MEANS WIND AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS
BEGIN TO PICK UP ON MON WITH DEEPER SW FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. TUESDAY'S SHORTWAVE NOW LOOKS A BIT TOO QUICK AND TOO
FAR NORTH TO GIVE US A WINDY DAY, BUT WINDS OF 20-30 MPH ARE A
SOLID BET. ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH AROUND THU, GIVING US
ANOTHER SHOT AT A WINDY DAY. MODEL CONSISTENCY IS LOW-MEDIUM FOR
THESE WIND-MAKERS NEXT WEEK, SO WE DON'T KNOW HOW IMPACTFUL
THEY'LL BE. FIRE WEATHER BECOMES A THREAT AS WELL SINCE RAIN
CHANCES HAVE DIMINISHED, EXCEPT FOR THE GILA REGION WHERE MOISTURE
AND PRECIP CHANCES ARE HIGHEST. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL
AFTER TOMORROW MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WARMEST ON MON.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 927 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE OVERSPREADING THE REGION TO BEGIN THE
PERIOD WITH THE ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE IN RAIN IS AT KELP AS A RAIN BAND DEVELOPS TO THE
SOUTHWEST. -SHRA WILL BE MORE ISOLATED FOR THE OTHER TERMINALS,
BUT AMENDMENTS TO THEIR TAFS ARE POSSIBLE. THERE'S A SLIGHT CHANCE
(10-20%) OF TS LATER TODAY OUTSIDE OF KTCS. ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
AFTER 6Z, MOST LIKELY FOR KDMN. CIGS COULD REACH AS LOW AS 050
WITH ANY HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS. GUSTY SW WINDS EXPECTED
DURING THE AFTERNOON, REACHING 25-30KTS. WINDS SUBSIDE THIS
EVENING TO AOB 8KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 927 AM MST FRI FEB 13 2026
WITH LIGHT RAINFALL FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT, FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS WILL BE LOW INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT WITH A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ALONG THE INT'L BORDER. WINDS
SHIFT WNW FOR SAT BEHIND THE SYSTEM AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE
WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST THROUGH MON BEFORE A SERIES OF
TROUGHS PASS BY THE REGION NEXT WEEK. THESE DISTURBANCES WILL
INCREASE WINDS BEGINNING ON MON WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEMS, SOME
WINDY DAYS ARE POSSIBLE, MOST LIKELY TUE AND THU. OTHER THAN A LOW
CHANCE OF PRECIP AROUND TUE FOR FWZ110, NO RAIN IS FORECAST AFTER
TOMORROW MORNING. DRYING OF FUELS WILL INCREASE THE THREAT OF FIRE
DANGER NEXT WEEK WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-50% THROUGH SAT, FALLING TO 12-30% BY MON.
VENT RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD THROUGH SAT, POOR TO
GOOD ON SUN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 45 68 42 72 / 60 10 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 42 62 37 68 / 70 40 0 0
LAS CRUCES 40 64 36 68 / 40 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 39 64 35 69 / 60 10 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 27 40 27 50 / 60 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 42 67 39 69 / 50 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 36 57 34 62 / 60 0 0 0
DEMING 41 67 36 70 / 60 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 39 61 35 68 / 70 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 66 44 71 / 60 10 0 0
DELL CITY 40 65 35 70 / 40 10 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 45 69 41 76 / 70 40 0 0
LOMA LINDA 41 59 40 65 / 60 10 0 0
FABENS 44 68 40 74 / 70 20 0 0
SANTA TERESA 43 65 39 70 / 50 10 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 44 67 42 69 / 50 10 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 40 66 34 69 / 40 0 0 0
HATCH 40 70 35 72 / 40 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 44 66 38 70 / 60 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 40 64 37 69 / 50 10 0 0
MAYHILL 32 54 29 65 / 50 10 0 0
MESCALERO 31 53 29 61 / 70 10 0 0
TIMBERON 33 51 33 57 / 60 10 0 0
WINSTON 29 58 27 64 / 50 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 37 66 37 67 / 50 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 37 66 33 69 / 40 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 32 58 30 63 / 60 0 0 0
HURLEY 36 60 33 65 / 60 0 0 0
CLIFF 36 64 31 69 / 60 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 34 59 31 65 / 60 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 38 62 37 63 / 50 0 0 0
ANIMAS 39 62 37 71 / 80 0 0 0
HACHITA 39 62 35 69 / 70 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 62 35 71 / 70 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 39 56 38 65 / 80 10 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...39-ARONSON
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