822
FXUS64 KEPZ 142335
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
435 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 434 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
- BREEZY WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TODAY BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.
- WARMING AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY WITH SOME BREEZINESS.
- A MORE SPRING-LIKE PATTERN WILL SETTLE IN ACROSS THE REGION FOR
THE MAJORITY OF NEXT WORK WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON WILL OFFER
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS. LOW CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MAINLY
FOCUS OVER THE GILA ON TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 904 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND YESTERDAY'S STORM SYSTEM, LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MIDDAY. MAINLY SUNNY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AS NW FLOW PERSISTS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW. GENERALLY 10-20
MPH WINDS FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON, A BIT STRONGER FOR EASTERN
AREAS WHERE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS TIGHTER.
FOR SUNDAY, HIGH CLOUDS MOVE INTO THE REGION DOWNSTREAM OF A
LARGE UPPER LOW OFF THE WEST COAST. OTHERWISE, UPPER RIDGING
TRANSLATES OVER THE REGION, PROVIDING LIGHTER WINDS AND WARMER
TEMPS. DEEPER SW FLOW TAKES OVER FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES PASS BY TO THE NORTH. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
FROM TUE-FRI AS LEE LOWS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE. TIMING OF
THE WAVES AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOWS WILL BE KEY IN
DETERMINING JUST HOW WINDY WE GET EACH DAY, BUT TUE AND WED NOW
LOOK LIKE THE WINDIEST DAYS OF THE PERIOD. THE SACS AND BLACKS ARE
MOST FAVORED TO EXPERIENCE AT LEAST ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS (60% OR
HIGHER CHANCE OF MAX WIND SPEED 30KTS+) ON TUE. NO WIND PRODUCTS
WILL BE ISSUED FOR THIS FORECAST CYCLE AS WE'RE STILL 72 HOURS OUT
AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH WE'LL REACH WARNING CRITERIA.
STRONG WIND PROBABILITIES DECREASE EACH DAY AFTER TUE, GOING
THROUGH FRI.
AS WE GET INTO A SPRING-LIKE PATTERN, BLOWING DUST AND FIRE
WEATHER WILL BECOME THREATS AS SOILS AND FUELS DRY THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK. YESTERDAY'S RAINFALL CERTAINLY MITIGATES THOSE CONCERNS IN
THE SHORT-TERM. WITH THE STORM TRACK TO OUR NORTH NEXT WEEK,
PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE LOW TO NONE; ONLY THE GILA REGION HAS A
DECENT CHANCE AT PRECIP ON TUE. SEVERAL PACIFIC FRONTS ROLL
THROUGH DURING THE WORKWEEK, KNOCKING TEMPS DOWN TO NEAR OR BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK AFTER A WARM MONDAY (HIGHS WELL INTO THE
70S).
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 434 PM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ANY REMAINING
LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATING BEFORE SUNSET LEADING TO SKC-FEW250. ANY
REMAINING GUSTINESS WILL ALSO END AFTER DARK WITH SPEEDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS. DIRECTION WILL GENERALLY BE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR MOST SITES OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 904 AM MST SAT FEB 14 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL INCREASE NEXT WEEK. TODAY WILL SEE
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND YESTERDAY'S STORM SYSTEM AS DRIER
AIR MOVES IN. 20-FT WINDS OF 15-20 MPH ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
FOR EASTERN AREAS, LIGHTER TO THE WEST. WINDS SHIFT S-SE FOR SUN,
BECOMING LIGHTER UNDERNEATH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE. BREEZIER WINDS FOR
MON AS DEEPER SW FLOW SHIFTS OVER THE REGION, RESULTING IN MIN RHS
NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS AND SOME ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. STRONGER
WINDS ARRIVE FOR TUE AS AN UPPER TROUGH COMES ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. MORE WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR TUE AND WED, ALTHOUGH COOLER TEMPS WILL HELP LOWER
MIN RHS ON TUE. EVEN THOUGH FUELS ARE VERY MOIST FOR MID-FEBRUARY,
THIS PATTERN WILL START A DRYING TREND AND RAISE ERCS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. TEMPS RISE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MON, COOLING TO NEAR
OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MIDWEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 20-45% TODAY, FALLING TO 10-25% FOR MON.
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE FAIR TO VERY GOOD THIS AFTERNOON, POOR
TO GOOD SUN, IMPROVING TO MOSTLY EXCELLENT TUE-THU.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 42 72 44 78 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 38 67 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 36 67 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 68 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 27 50 34 54 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 38 67 40 74 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 35 62 38 65 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 36 70 39 76 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 34 67 38 71 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 44 71 46 76 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 69 38 78 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 40 75 43 83 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 40 65 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 39 74 42 80 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 38 69 40 75 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 41 69 44 75 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 33 68 37 75 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 35 71 37 77 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 38 70 40 77 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 36 68 39 74 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 30 65 37 69 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 29 61 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 33 57 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 27 62 29 68 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 38 67 39 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 32 67 36 74 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 30 62 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 33 65 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 31 68 34 71 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 32 65 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 38 63 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 35 70 38 72 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 35 68 37 74 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 70 38 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 38 65 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...34-BROWN
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