322
FXUS64 KEPZ 161203 AAA
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
503 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 447 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH
BLOWING DUST LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS. THIS MAY CAUSE IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY REDUCING
VISIBILITY ON AREA ROADWAYS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG WINDS COMBINE WITH VERY DRY HUMIDITY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED. ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST SUN FEB 15 2026
UL RIDGE IS IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO THE
PLAINS. WE WILL BEGIN TRANSITIONING TO A TROUGH ON MONDAY WITH
DEEPENING SOUTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZINESS. EL PASO HAS JUST UNDER A
30% OF SEEING ITS FIRST 80 DEGREE DAY OF 2026 THOUGH SHORT OF ITS
RECORD OF 82.
THIS DEEPENING SW FLOW IS THANKS TO AN APPROACHING UL TROUGH
WHICH WILL BRING INCREASED IMPACTS TO THE BORDERLAND FOR TUESDAY.
BOTH THE GFS AND EURO SHOW A FAIRLY WELL TIMED JET MAX SWINGING
THROUGH NM DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH H500 WINDS AROUND 105
KNOTS. THERE WILL BE A COUPLE LIMITING FACTORS IN PLACE, HOWEVER,
WITH THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. CAA WILL ALREADY BE
UNDERWAY AS WELL, SO THAT COMBINED WITH INCREASED CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT MIXING. NEVERTHELESS, WE WILL STILL HAVE FRONTOGENESIS
TIGHTENING GRADIENTS WITH ROBUST H850 AND H700 FLOW. WE WILL BE
CLOSE TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR MUCH OF THE NEW MEXICO LOWLANDS
WITH THE NBM 25-75 SPREAD SHOWING 45-55 MPH. THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS LOOK TO BE THE EXCEPTION GIVEN PROXIMITY OF STRONGER JET
WINDS AND GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO SHOW A HYDRAULIC JUMP SIGNAL AND
SUBSEQUENT STRONG DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE AND A HIGH WIND WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. IN ADDITION TO
THE WIND, THE SYSTEM WILL HAVE SOME MOISTURE AND THUS WILL BRING
SOME RAIN CHANCES TO THE GILA. ELSEWHERE, RAPIDLY DEPARTING
DYNAMICS AND LOSS OF MOISTURE WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE CWA DRY WITH
MAYBE SOME ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS WEST OF THE DIVIDE FOR THE
LOWLANDS.
THAT FIRST JET MAX WILL EXIT INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN AT THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW ANOTHER JET MAX TO
SWING THROUGH NM ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM IS WELL-
TIMED, BUT IT IS A LITTLE WEAKER THAN TUESDAY'S SYSTEM ALTHOUGH
THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE CLOSER WITH THIS SYSTEM. THUS, IT APPEARS
WINDS WILL BE ABOUT 5 TO MAYBE 10 MPH LIGHTER. ANOTHER HIGH WIND
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND ADVISORIES MAY
BE NEEDED FOR OTHER AREAS AS WELL. I WILL LATE LATER SHIFTS
EVALUATE THAT. THIS SYSTEM IS DRIER, SO NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED
EXCEPT FOR MAYBE A SLIVER OF THE GILA.
WE WILL SEE A LITTLE BIT OF A LULL COMING INTO THURSDAY THOUGH IT
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AS THE MAIN JET REMAINS OVER NM JUST
WITH WEAKER FLOW AND A DEPARTING SURFACE CYCLONE. ANOTHER COMPACT
S/W TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH ON FRIDAY, KEEPING US BREEZY. THIS
SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING MORE SHOWERS TO THE GILA. FOR NOW THOUGH, IT
DOES NOT LOOK LIKE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY WILL BE AS WINDY AS TUESDAY
OR WEDNESDAY, BUT SOME AREAS MAY STILL NEED WIND ADVISORIES SUCH
AS THE SACS.
AN UL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN BEHIND FRIDAY'S S/W, LEADING TO
MORE PLEASANT WEATHER FOR NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
NORMAL ON SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING A WARMER TREND ON SUNDAY. NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO BE ON THE WARM SIDE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS IN THE
AFTN WILL TREND SLY TO SWLY WITH TYPICAL GUSTS. AN INCOMING UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CREATE AREAS OF LLWS AFT 17/06Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 447 AM MST MON FEB 16 2026
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS WEDNESDAY...
REMNANTS OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE
BORDERLAND TODAY, LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE AFTERNOON
BREEZES. POCKETS OF CRITICAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL FAVOR THE
LOWLANDS AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT SLOPES OF THE HIGH TERRAIN. A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING INLAND OFF CALIFORNIA COAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO COMPLETELY BREAK DOWN. STRONG
WINDS WILL PREVAIL ON TUESDAY, WITH MUCH OF THE HIGH TERRAIN
SEEING GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR GREATER. AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS PATTERN CHANGE, BUT SUCH STRONG WINDS MAY OVERCOME
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY TO CREATE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. A
RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE ISSUED IN FUTURE UPDATES SHOULD CONFIDENCE
CONTINUE TO INCREASE.
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE PROGRESSING EASTWARD, AN INJECTION OF DRY
AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. ANOTHER SYSTEM, HOT ON ITS HEELS, WILL
KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG ON WEDNESDAY AMONGST MUCH DRIER HUMIDITY.
GIVEN THE CLASSIC CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SIGNATURE, DID ISSUE A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH.
WHILE STRONG WINDS WILL SLACKEN SOME ON THURSDAY, THEY'LL REPRISE
THEMSELVES ON FRIDAY. HUMIDITY WILL IMPROVE A SKOSH AREAWIDE, BUT
LIKELY NOT ENOUGH TO OFFSET THE WINDS. ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE DOCKET TO CLOSE OUT
THE WORK WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 70 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 46 72 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 47 64 34 65 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 46 64 35 65 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 34 41 25 42 / 0 10 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 49 62 33 63 / 10 20 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 49 29 52 / 20 70 0 0
DEMING 49 64 34 66 / 10 20 0 0
LORDSBURG 46 57 30 62 / 10 30 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 69 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 43 70 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 49 78 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 47 64 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 49 74 40 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 50 66 38 68 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 66 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 46 64 33 65 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 49 66 33 67 / 0 10 0 0
COLUMBUS 51 66 38 69 / 10 10 0 0
OROGRANDE 46 66 35 66 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 56 30 56 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 37 53 27 53 / 0 10 0 0
TIMBERON 40 51 31 51 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 36 51 24 54 / 10 50 0 0
HILLSBORO 45 58 32 60 / 10 40 0 0
SPACEPORT 44 62 28 64 / 0 10 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 47 25 51 / 20 80 0 0
HURLEY 41 54 28 57 / 10 60 0 0
CLIFF 41 55 28 59 / 20 90 0 10
MULE CREEK 38 51 28 55 / 30 90 0 10
FAYWOOD 45 54 32 57 / 10 50 0 0
ANIMAS 48 59 33 65 / 10 30 0 0
HACHITA 47 60 33 64 / 10 20 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 46 61 35 65 / 0 20 0 0
CLOVERDALE 43 53 35 58 / 10 30 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...40-BREITREITER
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