936
FXUS64 KEPZ 171750
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1050 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1050 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
- WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH A RISK OF
BLOWING DUST ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST TEXAS.
THIS MAY CAUSE IMPACT TRAVEL CONDITIONS BY REDUCING VISIBILITY
ON AREA ROADWAYS.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AS
STRONG WINDS COMBINE WITH VERY DRY HUMIDITY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS
DISCOURAGED. ANY FIRES THAT DO START WILL SPREAD RAPIDLY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
A SERIES OF WAVES ROTATING AROUND A MEAN WESTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL
KEEP WINDS GOING ON A DAILY BASIS THROUGH FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR FRIDAY WITH A NICE COMPROMISE BETWEEN
THE GFS AND EC WHICH RESULTS IN A DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY AND WED.
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING WITH SOME
DUST BEING REPORTED IN THE USUAL AREAS AROUND KDMN AND SOUTH OF
THE BORDER. TODAY THINGS AREN'T REAL UNSTABLE AND SOME LIMITED
SUN, ESPECIALLY OUT WEST. TOMORROW LOOKS SIMILAR WITH ANOTHER
WAVE, BUT WITH A MORE FAVORABLE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
WE WILL HAVE PLENTY OF SUN. THINKING IS DUST WILL BE MORE OF AN
ISSUE TOMORROW, BUT WITH SOME RAIN TODAY OUT ON THE LORDSBURG
PLAYA, IT MAY NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE OUT THERE. LOOKING LIKE
ANOTHER DAY WITH ADVISORY OR NEAR ADVISORY WINDS FOR THE LOWLANDS
AND HIGH WIND WARNING IN THE MOUNTAINS.
FOR THURSDAY, LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER WINDY DAY, BUT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ISN'T QUITE LINED UP AS NICELY BUT WITH GOOD MIXING IN THE
AFTERNOON WILL SEE AT LEAST 20-30MPH ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL DROP ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES FOR THU. NBM TEMPS LOOKED REASONABLE,
MET GUIDANCE LOOKS TOO COLD, ESPECIALLY WITH THE CONTINUED ZONAL
FLOW AND GOOD AMOUNT OF FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. THERE LOOKS TO BE
SOME PRECIP AGAIN IN THE GILA REGION SIMILAR TO TODAY WHERE THE
MOISTURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT BEFORE GETTING EAST OF THE DIVIDE. SNOW
LEVELS WILL BE LOWER WITH SOME SNOW POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND
6000FT.
FRIDAY WILL BE THE FINAL WAVE CROSSING ALONG THE CO/NM BORDER.
THIS SETUP LOOKS PRETTY FAVORABLE WITH THE SURFACE LOW AROUND THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES AND GOOD TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH. THINKING AT
THIS TIME IS THAT SIMILAR HIGHLIGHTS TO TODAY MAY BE NECESSARY.
FOR THE WEEKEND, UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT OVER THE ROCKIES, BUT
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MOVES IN SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL JUST BRING IN
SOME EAST WINDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES WILL START TO WARM NICELY EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS
NOT A REAL BIG CONCERN, AT LEAST FOR MON/TUE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
P6SM FEW-SCT060-080 SCT-BKN200-250 THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR WEST WILL TAPER OFF QUICKLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET AT 20-30G45KTS, STRONGER ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN
SLOPES. SKIES WILL BECOME SKC-SCT250 OVERNIGHT AND WINDS WILL
START TO INCREASE AGAIN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MST TUE FEB 17 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DAILY SPEEDS OF
20-35MPH, STRONGEST WED AND FRI. RH'S WILL FLUCTUATE THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH WED LOOKING TO BE THE DRIEST WITH TEENS OVER THE
LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ERC'S ARE STILL NOT
VERY HIGH, SO WILL JUST HOLD OFF ON UPGRADING WATCH FOR NOW. RH'S
RISE TO THE 20S OVER THE LOWLANDS THU WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR FOR
FRI, BUT LOOKING TO REMAIN ABOVE 15%. ANOTHER CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW
IN THE GILA THU INTO EARLY FRI WILL HELP KEEP THE FIRE RISK LOWER
IN THIS AREA. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BUT WINDS WILL BE MUCH LESS OF AN ISSUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 43 70 43 65 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 39 70 37 65 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 34 66 36 59 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 35 64 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 28 40 24 38 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 33 64 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 32 52 35 49 / 0 0 20 30
DEMING 32 65 37 61 / 0 0 10 10
LORDSBURG 32 62 34 57 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 40 69 42 64 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 35 69 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 39 74 40 71 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 37 63 37 58 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 39 72 40 68 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 36 67 38 63 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 39 67 41 62 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 31 65 34 60 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 33 66 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 37 68 40 64 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 34 66 35 61 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 32 56 34 53 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 29 54 27 49 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 30 52 30 48 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 26 54 30 51 / 0 0 10 10
HILLSBORO 32 59 34 57 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 30 64 33 61 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 23 50 31 47 / 0 0 20 30
HURLEY 28 56 34 52 / 0 0 10 20
CLIFF 27 58 32 52 / 0 10 30 30
MULE CREEK 25 54 33 49 / 0 20 40 30
FAYWOOD 32 56 35 53 / 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 32 63 36 60 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 32 63 35 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 34 64 37 62 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 34 57 35 55 / 0 0 0 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EASTERN/CENTRAL EL
PASO COUNTY-NORTHERN HUDSPETH HIGHLANDS/HUECO MOUNTAINS-RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OF EASTERN EL PASO/WESTERN HUDSPETH COUNTIES-
SALT BASIN-WESTERN EL PASO COUNTY.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 055 EL PASO COUNTY-
TEXAS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 056 HUDSPETH COUNTY.
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR CENTRAL GRANT
COUNTY/SILVER CITY AREA-EAST CENTRAL TULAROSA
BASIN/ALAMOGORDO-EASTERN BLACK RANGE FOOTHILLS-NORTHERN
DONA ANA COUNTY-OTERO MESA-SIERRA COUNTY LAKES-SOUTHEAST
TULAROSA BASIN-SOUTHERN DONA ANA COUNTY/MESILLA VALLEY-
SOUTHERN GILA FOOTHILLS/MIMBRES VALLEY-SOUTHERN GILA REGION
HIGHLANDS/BLACK RANGE-SOUTHWEST DESERT/MIMBRES BASIN-WEST
CENTRAL TULAROSA BASIN/WHITE SANDS-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ- SOUTH CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND SOUTHERN RIO GRANDE
VALLEY/BLM/GLZ- SOUTHWEST DESERTS AND LOWLANDS/LAS CRUCES
BLM/GLZ.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET.
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR EAST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7500 FEET.
FORECASTER...26-GRZYWACZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page