851
FNUS74 KEPZ 221343
FWSEPZ
SPOT FORECAST FOR ELK VALLEY...BLM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
643 AM MST SUN FEB 22 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0700 MST ON FEBRUARY 22.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WITH THE BURN AREA MOSTLY SHELTERED
DURING THE MORNING HOURS, THEN LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A FEW HOURS OF LOW-END FAIR VENTILATION
IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. WINDS SHIFT OUT OF THE WEST MONDAY,
WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES AND POOR VENT RATES. ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER ON TUESDAY WITH RH 15-20% AND BREEZY WEST WINDS 15 TO 25
MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE EACH
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH UNSEASONABLY WARM
CONDITIONS. RH DOES IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AFTER WEDNESDAY, KEEPING LNF
OUT OF RED FLAG CONSIDERATION.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (30-40 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 50.
MIN HUMIDITY........17 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST 7 TO 8 MPH IN
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 14 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (600 KNOT-FT) EARLY IN THE MORNING
INCREASING TO FAIR (41600 KNOT-FT) IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TIME (MST) 7 AM 9 AM 11 AM 1 PM 3 PM 5 PM
SKY (%).........41 31 31 24 29 29
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............26 35 44 49 50 46
RH..............40 32 21 18 17 19
20 FT WIND......S 4 SE 7 SE 7 SE 8 SE 8 SE 8
20 FT WIND GUST.9 14 14 18 18 18
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1300 3000 3800 3400 2100
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 5 SE 10 SE 13 SE 14 SE 13 E 12
VRATE KT-FT/1K..1 12 33 42 36 21
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR FAIR POOR POOR
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (20-30 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 28.
MAX HUMIDITY........40 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 6 MPH EARLY IN THE
EVENING BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......500 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE WEST 6 TO
7 MPH LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN INCREASING TO 7
TO 8 MPH OVERNIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (1600 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MST) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........38 38 18 13 13 11
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............42 37 35 32 31 29
RH..............22 26 29 33 36 39
20 FT WIND......SE 6 SE 6 SW 4 W 3 W 3 W 2
20 FT WIND GUST.14 14 9 6 6 6
MIX HGT (FT)....500 500 500 500 500 500
TRANSPORT WIND..E 10 SE 8 SW 7 W 6 W 7 W 8
VRATE KT-FT/1K..14 3 2 2 3 3
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
MONDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MIN HUMIDITY........15 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3800 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST 5 TO 8 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH
AROUND 8 MPH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR (2000 KNOT-FT).
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........15 7 3 9
WEATHER COV.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........NONE NONE NONE NONE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0
TEMP............28 41 56 60
RH..............40 26 16 15
20 FT WIND......W 2G6 NW 2G7 NW 4G12 NW 5G13
MIX HGT (FT)....500 1000 3500 3100
TRANSPORT WIND..W 7 W 5 NW 6 NW 7
VRATE KT-FT/1K..3 5 16 19
VENTRATE CAT....POOR POOR POOR POOR
FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5
TUESDAY
MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 30S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
WEDNESDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. WEST
WINDS AROUND 20 MPH.
THURSDAY
PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
FORECASTER...DENNHARDT
REQUESTED BY...ZEBB ANDREWS
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2603461.0/EPZ
.DELDT 02/22/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL ZANDREWS@BLM.GOV,DLBELL@BLM.GOV
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