498
FXUS64 KEPZ 040508
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1008 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 1007 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
- REMAINING VERY WARM WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, JUST BELOW RECORD
LEVELS.
- WINDY ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- COOL FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY EAST WINDS.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT DID BRING SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THAT WAS ABOUT IT. WEDNESDAY IS A SLACK DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS
WE AWAIT THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THOUGH
PROBABLY A BIT BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
THURSDAY...THAT NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPS IN ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
AND COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW.
LATEST MODELS SHOW A BIT BETTER TIMING FOR WINDS THURSDAY, THOUGH
STILL A BIT TOO SLOW FOR MAXIMUM WIND SPEED POTENTIAL. HAVING SAID
THAT, WINDS WILL STILL BE PRETTY STOUT; IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. IN FACT LATEST GFS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL
TO REACH NEAR WARNING CRITERIA FOR EAST SLOPES OF SAN ANDREAS,
FRANKLIN, AND HUECO MTNS, ALONG WITH THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. THIS
WOULD LIKELY BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR-CRITICAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WINDS/LOW HUMIDITY, BUT MEDIUM/HEAVY FUELS STILL HAVE NOT DRIED
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AND ERC MAPS STILL NOT SHOWING CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS YET BUT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE NEXT MODEL RUNS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...POST PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES
COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT IN SERIES OF
PACIFIC SYSTEMS BEGINS DEEPENING AS IT MOVES DROPS SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN DOWN TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS POSITION ALLOWS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHEAST,
EVENTUALLY BRINGING IN A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO THE AREA,
REACHING THE SACS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND ALL THE WAY TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OUT OVER HIDALGO COUNTY WELL INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT,
MOVING THE BAJA LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA TO
OPEN UP AND PUSH A DRY-LINE UP INTO THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD SOME ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE
DRY-LINE ONLY MAKING IT IN PARTIALLY, AIRMASS MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE ALL AREAS TO RESPECTABLE LEVELS, ALONG WITH SOME DE-
STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. THUS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINS
SUNDAY, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVEN POP UP WITHIN THE
SHOWERS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER EXITING THE LOW, SHOWING LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE OF RAIN BY TUESDAY. GFS A BIT SLOWER SO STILL HOLDS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250. SURFACE WINDS
VARIABLE MAINLY NORTHWEST AOB 7 KNOTS, INCREASING TO WEST 10-15
KNOTS AFTER 18Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. PROGRESSIVE
SPRING-LIKE FLOW REGIME IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WILL
PROMOTE BREEZY AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL FLUCTUATE
EACH DAY WITH BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY WITH A BRIEF LULL IN WINDS ON WEDNESDAY. MIN RH VALUES WILL
DROP TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT EACH AFTERNOON, THROUGH FRIDAY FOR
ALL FIRE WEATHER ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. FUELS CONTINUE DRY OUT, BUT
STILL REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS THAT WOULD BE CAUSE FOR CONCERN, SO
NO FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS/HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED. VENTILATION
RATES WILL RANGE BETWEEN GOOD TO EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 49 79 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 44 78 44 77 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 42 77 41 76 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 36 61 38 59 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 76 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 70 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 43 80 42 78 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 41 75 42 74 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 80 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 43 81 45 80 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 49 86 49 85 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 49 74 50 73 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 49 83 50 83 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 78 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 79 52 78 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 36 78 36 77 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 39 80 39 79 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 47 81 48 79 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 39 77 42 77 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 39 73 41 71 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 37 70 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 41 68 42 66 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 32 70 32 69 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 75 44 73 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 34 76 33 75 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 31 70 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 40 73 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 30 75 30 73 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 27 70 28 67 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 44 73 43 70 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 44 78 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 78 43 75 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 79 45 75 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 48 73 45 69 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...17-HEFNER
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