535
FXUS64 KEPZ 041256
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
556 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 505 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
- REMAINING VERY WARM WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, JUST BELOW RECORD
LEVELS.
- WINDY ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON. NEAR CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- COOL FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY EAST WINDS.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1007 PM MST TUE MAR 3 2026
UPPER LOW NOW OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO AND WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. IT DID BRING SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON BUT
THAT WAS ABOUT IT. WEDNESDAY IS A SLACK DAY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS AS
WE AWAIT THE NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES THOUGH
PROBABLY A BIT BELOW RECORD LEVELS.
THURSDAY...THAT NEXT PACIFIC TROUGH SWEEPS IN ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH
AND COLORADO THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AS A CLOSED LOW.
LATEST MODELS SHOW A BIT BETTER TIMING FOR WINDS THURSDAY, THOUGH
STILL A BIT TOO SLOW FOR MAXIMUM WIND SPEED POTENTIAL. HAVING SAID
THAT, WINDS WILL STILL BE PRETTY STOUT; IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. IN FACT LATEST GFS SHOWS SOME POTENTIAL
TO REACH NEAR WARNING CRITERIA FOR EAST SLOPES OF SAN ANDREAS,
FRANKLIN, AND HUECO MTNS, ALONG WITH THE SACRAMENTO MTNS. THIS
WOULD LIKELY BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. ALSO FIRE
CONDITIONS WILL BE NEAR-CRITICAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
WINDS/LOW HUMIDITY, BUT MEDIUM/HEAVY FUELS STILL HAVE NOT DRIED
OUT SIGNIFICANTLY AND ERC MAPS STILL NOT SHOWING CRITICAL VALUES.
WILL NOT ISSUE ANY PRODUCTS YET BUT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED FOR
THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE NEXT MODEL RUNS.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...POST PACIFIC FRONTAL PASSAGE, TEMPERATURES
COOL AROUND 10 DEGREES, BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT IN SERIES OF
PACIFIC SYSTEMS BEGINS DEEPENING AS IT MOVES DROPS SOUTH OUT OF
THE GREAT BASIN DOWN TO NEAR THE NORTHERN BAJA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS POSITION ALLOWS LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHEAST,
EVENTUALLY BRINGING IN A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO THE AREA,
REACHING THE SACS BY SATURDAY MORNING AND ALL THE WAY TO THE
ARIZONA BORDER BY EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. GUSTY WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, AROUND 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE ALONG WEST SLOPES OF MOUNTAINS. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY PERSIST OUT OVER HIDALGO COUNTY WELL INTO SATURDAY
EVENING.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT,
MOVING THE BAJA LOW ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THIS ALLOWS SOUTHEAST FLOW FROM THE GULF OF AMERICA TO
OPEN UP AND PUSH A DRY-LINE UP INTO THE EASTERN CWA SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, BEFORE RETREATING EASTWARD SOME ON TUESDAY. DESPITE THE
DRY-LINE ONLY MAKING IT IN PARTIALLY, AIRMASS MOISTURE DOES
INCREASE ALL AREAS TO RESPECTABLE LEVELS, ALONG WITH SOME DE-
STABILIZATION OF THE AIRMASS. THUS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS BEGINS
SUNDAY, AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD EVEN POP UP WITHIN THE
SHOWERS. ECMWF A BIT FASTER EXITING THE LOW, SHOWING LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE OF RAIN BY TUESDAY. GFS A BIT SLOWER SO STILL HOLDS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 505 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING TO TREND BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 15 TO 20
KNOTS BETWEEN 20 AND 24Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 505 AM MST WED MAR 4 2026
LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED TODAY, BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
BOOST WINDS ON THURSDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES PERSIST BELOW 10
PERCENT. EXPECT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA, WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS JUST EAST OF THE SACRAMENTO
MOUNTAINS. LIGHTER WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL ON
FRIDAY. A FAIRLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND SOME GUSTY EAST WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND, WITH
SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 52 81 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 47 78 44 71 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 44 77 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 41 76 35 67 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 38 59 31 47 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 45 75 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 42 66 34 56 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 42 78 39 68 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 42 74 36 64 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 80 49 70 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 45 80 43 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 49 85 47 78 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 73 44 64 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 50 83 47 74 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 78 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 78 49 68 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 36 77 33 67 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 39 79 36 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 48 79 45 71 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 42 77 38 67 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 41 71 38 60 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 39 68 34 57 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 42 66 36 55 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 32 69 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 44 73 39 63 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 33 75 32 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 32 66 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 39 70 33 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 30 73 28 63 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 28 67 24 58 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 43 70 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 75 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 43 75 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 45 75 41 68 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 45 69 39 62 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25
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