276
FXUS64 KEPZ 050505
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1005 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 940 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
- WINDY ON THURSDAY, WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER DUE TO CONTINUED DRY AND
BREEZY CONDITIONS.
- COOL FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND GUSTY EAST WINDS.
- SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS SATURDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
TONIGHT WE WATCH UPSTREAM TO OUR WEST FOR THE APPROACH OF OUR NEXT
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THIS FEATURE WILL BE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND THIS WILL SQUEEZE PRESSURE GRADIENTS AND
FORM A LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH TO OUR N AND E. THIS WILL MEAN
ANOTHER DRY, SUNNY, AND WARM DAY, WITH INCREASING SW WINDS,
BECOMING BREEZY MIDDAY, AND WINDY MID-AFTERNOON, LASTING WILL
INTO THE EVENING. THE VERY LOW RH, ALONG WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG WINDS, ARE A RECIPE FOR FIRE CONCERNS
ACROSS THE REGION, AND A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR
THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, BUT THE LOWLANDS AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
HAVE FUELS THAT ARE NOT YET CRITICALLY DRY THIS YEAR. SO THERE IS
AND ELEVATED CONCERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE GRASSES, BUT DESPITE
WEATHER MEETING CRITERIA, THE FUELS ARE NOT YET THERE, EXCEPT FOR
AREAS TO OUR EAST, INCLUDING THE SACS. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO THE
15-25 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 30-35+ MPH, BUT THE WINDS WILL BE SLOW
TO STRENGTHEN, WITH A FINE MORNING, AND THEN WINDS KICKING IN
AFTER NOON. THE SLOW PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM, WILL KEEP WINDS STRONG
INTO THE NIGHT OVER ELEVATED TERRAIN, PASSES AND GAPS, AND EAST
SLOPES FAVORED FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES.
FRIDAY WE WILL BE BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER TROUGH, AND IT'S
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE MORE WESTERLY AND
LIGHTER, BUT SOMEWHAT BREEZY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER BY
ABOUT 10 DEGREES. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY. AS THE FIRST LOBE OF
ENERGY (OUR WIND MAKER) EXITS OVER THE ROCKIES TO OUR NORTH, A
SURFACE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SOUTH INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SATURDAY MORNING. WE EXPECT TO SEE THIS
SIDEDOOR/BACKDOOR FRONT PUSH IN LATE MORNING, AND ARRIVE IN EL
PASO AROUND NOON. THE FRONT COMES IN WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NE AND
E WINDS FOR THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FRONT BRINGS ONLY
MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RECYCLED GULF MOISTURE, AND THUS IT APPEARS TO
BE A MOSTLY DRY PASSAGE FOR SATURDAY. HOWEVER, UPSTREAM TO OUR
WEST, LURKS A LARGE PACIFIC LOW OVER THE BAJA. THIS SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OUR WAY SUNDAY, AND BEGIN TO SPREAD INSTABILITY AND DYNAMICS
OVER OUR AREA. WE COULD SEE SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP OVER N MEX AND
MOVER OUR WAY LATE SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND SLOWLY
PASSES TO OUR SOUTH, WE SHOULD SEE SOME BETTER RAIN AND EVEN STORM
CHANCES OVER OUR AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT TO OUR EAST, ACROSS TEXAS, AND WE
COME UNDER A FAIR WEATHER ZONAL FLOW PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK. WE WILL SEE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND LIGHTER WINDS. IN
ADDITIONS, WE WILL SEE ANOTHER WARM UP, WITH A POSSIBILITY OF OUR
FIRST 90 DEGREE HIGHS FOR EL PASO AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 940 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH SCT/BKN250 THROUGH 15Z...THEN
SKIES TRENDING MOSTLY SKC. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT OVERNIGHT,
THROUGH 15-18Z...THEN INCREASING WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH.
WINDS WILL BE SW AND INCREASING TO 20-30KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS.
THE WARM TEMPERATURES, AND SW FLOW DIRECTION WILL ALLOW FOR LOFTED
DUST, WITH VSBY AFT 21 POSSIBLY DOWN TO 3-5SM IN BLDU ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS, WITH LOCAL AREAS OF LESS THAN 1SM BETWEEN 22Z AND 03Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1215 PM MST WED MAR 4 2026
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL GIVE US BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY. THOSE WINDS COMBINED WITH MIN RH'S
OF 10 TO 15% WILL GIVE US NEAR CRITICAL TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. THE WINDS WILL
STAY UP FOR LOCATION EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE ON THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. LATE ON FRIDAY A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
REGION FROM THE EAST TO THE WEST AND THAT WILL FLIP OUR WINDS
AROUND TO THE EAST FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. MIN RH'S WILL COME UP
FOR THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS OF 15 TO 20% IN THE LOWLANDS AND 20
TO 30% IN AREA MOUNTAINS ON SATURDAY AND A LITTLE HIGHER ON
SUNDAY. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR RAIN ON SUNDAY AND A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN ON
MONDAY. MIN RH'S ON MONDAY WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 20% ACROSS THE
AREA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 81 48 71 / 0 0 0 0
SIERRA BLANCA 48 78 44 70 / 0 0 0 0
LAS CRUCES 43 76 40 66 / 0 0 0 0
ALAMOGORDO 47 76 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
CLOUDCROFT 37 52 30 43 / 0 0 0 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 43 75 39 65 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 41 65 32 56 / 0 0 0 0
DEMING 42 78 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
LORDSBURG 40 73 34 64 / 0 0 0 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 53 79 48 70 / 0 0 0 0
DELL CITY 44 80 42 72 / 0 0 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 50 86 46 77 / 0 0 0 0
LOMA LINDA 50 73 43 64 / 0 0 0 0
FABENS 49 83 47 73 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA TERESA 47 78 43 68 / 0 0 0 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 53 78 47 67 / 0 0 0 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 76 39 67 / 0 0 0 0
HATCH 41 78 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
COLUMBUS 48 80 43 71 / 0 0 0 0
OROGRANDE 47 75 41 66 / 0 0 0 0
MAYHILL 40 66 37 57 / 0 0 0 0
MESCALERO 39 64 33 53 / 0 0 0 0
TIMBERON 41 62 35 53 / 0 0 0 0
WINSTON 32 65 27 57 / 0 0 0 0
HILLSBORO 43 72 37 64 / 0 0 0 0
SPACEPORT 37 74 34 66 / 0 0 0 0
LAKE ROBERTS 36 64 28 56 / 0 0 0 0
HURLEY 38 70 32 59 / 0 0 0 0
CLIFF 37 72 29 64 / 0 0 0 0
MULE CREEK 37 67 29 59 / 0 0 0 0
FAYWOOD 43 69 36 60 / 0 0 0 0
ANIMAS 43 75 37 67 / 0 0 0 0
HACHITA 42 75 37 66 / 0 0 0 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 44 75 39 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVERDALE 45 69 37 63 / 0 0 0 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM MST THURSDAY FOR CAPITAN AND
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page