488
FXUS64 KEPZ 061151
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
451 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 441 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
- BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH MORE FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS, MAINLY IN THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS, AND LIMITED
CHANCES FOR PATCHY BLOWING DUST.
- COOL FRONT MOVES IN SATURDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY EAST WINDS.
- LOW-END RAIN CHANCES RETURN LATE SUNDAY, WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 828 PM MST THU MAR 5 2026
OUR SLOW-APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IS YET TO MAKE IT TO THE FOUR
CORNERS, AND THIS DELAY IN ARRIVAL HELPED TO KEEP OUR WINDS FROM
GETTING TOO STRONG TODAY. STILL IT WAS QUITE BREEZY, AND
MARGINALLY WINDY DUE TO LOW LEVEL LEE SIDE TROUGHING TO OUR N AND
E. THIS HELPED KEEP THE REGION FROM GETTING TOO DUSTY, WITH JUST
SOME AREAWIDE HAZY SKIES, WITH THE ONE EXCEPTION OF A SOURCE
REGION TO THE SW OF ELP, WHICH STEER SOME VSBY REDUCING DUST OVER
SE DONA ANA COUNTY INTO FAR WEST EL PASO COUNTY LATE AFTERNOON.
AS THE LOW SLOWLY APPROACHES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, WE WILL SEE WINDS
ALOFT STRENGTHEN, SO HIGH ELEVATIONS ACROSS OUR N ZONES WILL SEE
STRONG WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. IN FACT, WE HAVE A
WIND ADVISORY IN PLAY TONIGHT FOR THE SACS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
TRACK EAST ALONG THE NM/CO LINE TOMORROW, KEEPING PRESSURE
GRADIENTS TIGHT, AND ALLOWING FOR A SECOND DAY OF ELEVATED WIND
SPEEDS. IN ADDITION, A PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH W TO E AND ALLOW
FOR A COOLING OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY'S TEMPS.
OTHERWISE, FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND MOSTLY SUNNY.
SATURDAY, THE TROUGH LIFTS NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES, BUT
LEAVES BEHIND AN UPPER LOW, WHICH WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE BAJA.
OUR AREA WILL BE UNDER A TEMPORARY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT, WITH A COLD
FRONT PUSHING IN FROM THE N AND NE. YESTERDAY'S MODELS INDICATED
PRETTY STRONG WINDS, WITH A MIDDAY PASSAGE THROUGH ELP. HOWEVER,
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW THE EAST WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ARE BREEZY, BUT NOT NEARLY AS STRONG. THE FRONT DOESN'T LOOK
TO BRING ANY COOLING, AND THE MOISTURE GAINS FROM THE PLAINS IS
MEAGER AT BEST. THUS, ONLY A WIND SHIFT FOR MOST, WITH TEMPS NEAR
FRIDAY'S, AND ONLY THE SLIGHTEST CHANCES FOR ANY LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY.
SUNDAY WE SIT BEHIND THE FRONT, AND BEGIN TO WARM A BIT, BUT ONLY
A FEW DEGREES. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE BAJA, IS CUT OFF FROM GOOD
STEERING FLOW, SO IT WILL PARK THERE FOR THE DAY. THIS SHOULD BE A
DRY DAY, WITH LIGHTER WINDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, THE LOW IS PROGED TO SLOWLY TRACK EAST, WITH A
VERY SOUTHERLY TRACK, THAT ULTIMATELY PASSES THE LOW CENTER TO OUR
SOUTH. MID DAY MONDAY, AND BEYOND, THROUGH TUESDAY APPEARS TO BE
OUR BEST WINDOW FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION, AS THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM PASSES. SNOW LEVEL SHOULD STAY
HIGH, WITH RAIN BELOW 8500 FT ELEVATION.
THE STORM SYSTEM EXITS TO OUR EAST ON WEDNESDAY, AND WE GO BACK
UNDER A DRY WEST FLOW PATTERN, WITH FAIR AND MILD CONDITIONS, WITH
DAY TO DAY WARMING INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 441 AM MST FRI MAR 6 2026
LOW END BREEZY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
AND WILL BECOME BREEZY AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WIND AT 15-20G25-30KT. BLDU POSSIBLE TODAY BUT KDMN
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME LOWERED VISIBILITIES DUE TO LOCAL
DUST SOURCES IN AND AROUND DEMING. PROBABLY WILL STAY VFR TODAY AS
WINDIER CONDITIONS YESTERDAY DID NOT PRODUCE AS MUCH BLOWING DUST
AS WE THOUGHT. A WEST WIND WILL PUSH DUST DOWNSTREAM TOWARDS KLRU
BUT NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL CAUSE MUCH REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITIES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1019 AM MST THU MAR 5 2026
RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT TODAY AND FRIDAY FOR THE
SACRAMENTO AND CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY ACROSS THE REGION AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SWINGS BY TO THE NORTH TONIGHT. FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
TOWARDS THE 75TH AND 90TH PERCENTILES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS,
INCREASING THE FIRE DANGER THREAT. ERCS ARE CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE 90TH %-ILE IN THE SACS, LOWER ELSEWHERE, WHICH IS WHY RFWS ARE
NOT IN EFFECT OUTSIDE THE SACS. THIS AFTERNOON'S WINDS WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 15-25 MPH AT 20 FEET WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH,
SOMEWHAT LIGHTER IN FAR WEST TX. RFTIS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY
IN THE 3-5 RANGE WITH POCKETS OF CRITICAL FIRE WX, BUT GENERALLY
NEAR- CRITICAL. TODAY AND TOMORROW WOULD BE IN THE LOW-END RED
FLAG CATEGORY AS WINDS WON'T BE VERY STRONG AND FUELS ARE NOT A
MAJOR PROBLEM, YET. A BACKDOOR FRONT ARRIVES ON SATURDAY, SHIFTING
WINDS E-NE WITH SOME GUSTINESS AND BRINGING IN SOME MOISTURE.
A LOW NEAR BAJA INCREASES THE CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY NEXT WEEK, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
OUTFLOWS COULD BE THREATS. TUESDAY LOOKS BREEZY AS THE LOW SWEEPS
ACROSS. TEMPERATURES RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR FRIDAY, WARMING
BACK UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 8-15% THROUGH FRIDAY, RISING TO 20-35% BY
SUNDAY. VENTILATION WILL BE MOSTLY EXCELLENT THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 44 71 47 73 / 0 0 10 10
SIERRA BLANCA 42 67 41 68 / 0 0 40 30
LAS CRUCES 35 67 40 71 / 0 0 10 10
ALAMOGORDO 36 70 38 72 / 0 0 0 10
CLOUDCROFT 26 46 28 51 / 0 0 10 20
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 35 65 39 69 / 0 0 0 0
SILVER CITY 31 62 38 65 / 0 10 10 10
DEMING 33 71 40 71 / 0 0 10 10
LORDSBURG 31 68 43 71 / 0 0 10 10
WEST EL PASO METRO 46 71 48 73 / 0 0 10 10
DELL CITY 38 70 38 72 / 0 0 10 20
FORT HANCOCK 43 76 45 75 / 0 0 30 20
LOMA LINDA 42 64 42 65 / 0 0 10 10
FABENS 43 74 47 76 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA TERESA 39 71 44 71 / 0 0 10 10
WHITE SANDS HQ 43 69 46 71 / 0 0 10 10
JORNADA RANGE 34 69 37 72 / 0 0 10 10
HATCH 32 71 37 73 / 0 0 10 10
COLUMBUS 39 71 45 73 / 0 0 10 10
OROGRANDE 38 67 40 71 / 0 0 10 10
MAYHILL 29 55 29 63 / 0 0 0 20
MESCALERO 28 57 30 61 / 0 0 10 20
TIMBERON 32 54 34 58 / 0 0 10 20
WINSTON 22 58 28 63 / 0 0 0 10
HILLSBORO 34 63 39 69 / 0 0 10 10
SPACEPORT 30 68 34 71 / 0 0 10 0
LAKE ROBERTS 26 59 32 67 / 0 10 10 20
HURLEY 29 63 36 66 / 0 0 10 10
CLIFF 27 68 35 75 / 0 0 10 10
MULE CREEK 27 63 35 71 / 0 0 0 10
FAYWOOD 34 64 39 66 / 0 0 10 10
ANIMAS 33 70 41 73 / 0 0 10 10
HACHITA 32 67 42 71 / 0 0 10 10
ANTELOPE WELLS 35 71 40 73 / 0 0 10 10
CLOVERDALE 36 64 43 67 / 0 0 20 10
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR EAST SLOPES
SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500 FEET-SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS
ABOVE 7500 FEET-WEST SLOPES SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS BELOW 7500
FEET.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR CAPITAN AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS/LINCOLN
NF/LNZ.
FORECASTER...37-SLUSHER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page