537
FXUS64 KEPZ 081113
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
513 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 448 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A BRIEF WARMING TREND WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY THIS SYSTEM ON
TUESDAY, BUT THE WARMING WILL RETURN LATER IN THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MST SAT MAR 7 2026
SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS HAVE PUSHED NORTH OF THE BORDER THIS
EVENING, DEBRIS FROM CONVECTION OVER CENTRAL CHIHUAHUA. NO PRECIP
RISK FOR US THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY CUT OFF
FROM THE MAIN FLOW WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA WILL BOOST OUR PRECIP
CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RAMP UP SUNDAY AND MONDAY, REACHING THE
LOWER-80S AGAIN FOR THE LOWLANDS MONDAY AFTERNOON. BUT THE
INCOMING SYSTEM WILL DROP TEMPS BACK TO A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR TUESDAY.
PRECIP IS LIKELY TO HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DARK MONDAY NIGHT, AS
SHOWERS WILL BE FIGHTING DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS (IT IS MARCH
AFTER ALL). SOME BRIEF BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SHOWERS ENCOUNTER THE DRIER AIR.
THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN EL PASO/LAS CRUCES WILL BE DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH PUSHES THROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. BREEZY WSW
WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
BEHIND THE MAIN TROUGH. MOST OF THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN THE GRIDS
(PRODUCED BY WPC FROM DAY 4/TUESDAY ONWARD), INCLUDING THE WIND
POTENTIAL (GENERALLY 20-25 MPH, GUSTS TO 35 MPH). BLOWING DUST
RISK IS LOW GIVEN THE PRECIP MOVING IN, AND WIND SPEEDS DON'T
REALLY SUPPORT MUCH MORE THAN A LIGHT HAZY DUST LIKE WE SAW BACK
ON THURSDAY. LOW IMPACT.
SNOW LEVELS LOOK TO BE QUITE HIGH UNTIL TUESDAY, THEN WILL DROP TO
AROUND 8,500 FEET. SLUSHY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY.
MARCH SUN ANGLE AND MARGINAL TEMPERATURES WON'T HELP.
LONGER RANGE (WEDNESDAY ONWARDS), THE AUTOMATED FORECAST GRIDS
LOOK GOOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER, INCLUDING WIND, EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO QUICKLY REBOUND, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE
MIDDLE 80S BY FRIDAY IN THE LOWLANDS AGAIN.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKIES SKC TO
FEW250. WINDS LIGHT AND VRB THROUGH MID MORNING, BECOMING
EASTERLY AT 5-9 KNOTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 448 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AHEAD OF THE NEXT PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL
FURTHER AMPLIFY ON SUNDAY, RESULTING IN WARMING TEMPERATURES WHICH
WILL RISE 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA.
SUBTLE INCREASE IN LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL TRANSLATE TO
SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIN RH VALUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN NM AND WEST TX.
MIN RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 15-25 PERCENT ACROSS MAJORITY OF
THE AREA, WITH AREAS ACROSS THE DESERT LOWLANDS IN OTERO/SIERRA
COUNTY DROPPING TO BELOW 15 PERCENT. AFTERNOON MIXING OF 5-7 KFT
WILL PROMOTE FAIR TO VERY GOOD SMOKE VENTILATION RATES ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY
WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING MOISTURE AND
INCREASE RAIN CHANCES ON TUESDAY. WINDS ON TUESDAY WILL FALL
BETWEEN THE BREEZY TO WINDY CATEGORY. HOWEVER, WITH THE INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES, FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW.
WARMING AND DRYING TREND EXPECTED THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES RISING BACK ABOVE AVERAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 82 51 67 / 0 10 30 60
SIERRA BLANCA 50 78 46 65 / 0 10 20 60
LAS CRUCES 45 77 46 61 / 0 10 40 70
ALAMOGORDO 42 79 43 63 / 0 10 40 70
CLOUDCROFT 38 57 34 42 / 0 10 50 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 47 77 47 63 / 0 10 50 70
SILVER CITY 43 70 40 52 / 0 10 70 80
DEMING 43 79 46 63 / 0 10 50 70
LORDSBURG 39 76 43 59 / 0 10 60 70
WEST EL PASO METRO 51 80 51 65 / 0 10 30 70
DELL CITY 38 82 46 68 / 0 10 20 40
FORT HANCOCK 45 86 48 71 / 0 10 20 70
LOMA LINDA 42 75 46 60 / 0 10 20 70
FABENS 50 86 48 68 / 0 10 20 60
SANTA TERESA 47 81 47 63 / 0 10 30 60
WHITE SANDS HQ 52 79 49 64 / 0 10 40 70
JORNADA RANGE 35 79 42 63 / 0 10 50 70
HATCH 38 81 44 65 / 0 10 60 70
COLUMBUS 46 80 48 65 / 0 10 40 60
OROGRANDE 41 78 45 63 / 0 10 30 70
MAYHILL 35 71 39 57 / 0 10 40 60
MESCALERO 36 68 37 53 / 0 10 60 80
TIMBERON 33 66 38 50 / 0 10 40 70
WINSTON 34 69 33 56 / 0 10 50 80
HILLSBORO 45 75 44 60 / 0 10 50 80
SPACEPORT 39 79 41 63 / 0 10 50 70
LAKE ROBERTS 24 70 36 52 / 0 10 70 90
HURLEY 40 73 38 56 / 0 10 60 80
CLIFF 33 77 40 59 / 0 10 60 80
MULE CREEK 27 73 40 55 / 0 10 70 80
FAYWOOD 44 72 42 57 / 0 10 60 80
ANIMAS 42 78 44 61 / 0 20 70 60
HACHITA 44 77 43 60 / 0 10 60 60
ANTELOPE WELLS 39 78 42 60 / 0 10 60 50
CLOVERDALE 45 71 42 54 / 0 20 80 60
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...38-ROGERS
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