088
FXUS64 KEPZ 090428
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1028 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
..NEW DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 706 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
- MONDAY LOOKS DRY AND MILD, WITH LIGHT WINDS, AS OUR NEXT STORM
SYSTEM REMAINS STALLED OVER THE BAJA.
- MONDAY EVENING, OVERNIGHT, AND THROUGH TUESDAY, THE SLOW MOVING
BAJA STORM SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY PASS OVER THE BORDERLAND, BRINGING
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS, AND THUNDERSTORMS, TO THE REGION.
- WEDNESDAY, ONWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND, AND INTO NEXT WEEK, A FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM EACH DAY, WITH MUCH
RECORD WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS, WITH
LIGHT WINDS, WITH OCCASIONAL AFTERNOON BREEZES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 706 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
THE BORDERLAND REGION SITS WITHIN A DRYSLOT, BETWEEN GULF MOISTURE
TO OUR EAST, AND PACIFIC MOISTURE TO OUR WEST. WE ARE IN A CHANNEL
OF QUITE DRY AIR, WITH FEW CLOUDS AND FAIR WEATHER. MEANWHILE, A
LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS OFF THE BAJA, TO OUR
WEST, WITH VERY LITTLE MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE EAST OVER THE BAJA BY
LATE DAY ON MONDAY.
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARD THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA, THE
DRY SLOT OVER OUR REGION WILL SHIFT EAST, AND A BAND OF SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE, ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FORCES ALOFT, WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD
ACROSS NE SONORA, AND N CHIHUAHUA, AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE BOOTHEEL
OF SW NEW MEXICO, IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE
SHOWERS MOVE IN AND DEVELOP OVER SW NM, EARLY EVENING, AND THEN S
CENTRAL NM, MID AND LATE EVENING. THERE IS A BIT OF INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING MOISTURE, SO SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING,
OVERNIGHT, INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST RIGHT ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER, AND PASSES OVER EL PASO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WE
WILL SEE CONTINUED SHOWERS, WITH ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE DAY, AND EVENING, BEFORE THEY
DISSIPATE IN THE LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS, AS THE LOW MOVES
EAST. ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WE SEE A STOUT PACIFIC FRONT,
WITH WINDY AND GUSTY WEST WIND CONDITIONS PICKING UP BY MID
AFTERNOON, AND CONTINUING INTO THE NIGHT, TUESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LOW, THE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS, AND THE
FRONT, TUESDAY'S TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER (LOWLANDS
IN THE 60S), BY 15 TO 20 DEGREES FROM MONDAY'S HIGHS.
WEDNESDAY, THE STORM SYSTEM WILL BE WELL TO OUR EAST, AND WE WILL
SEE A DRY NW FLOW BACK IN PLACE. DRY AIR WILL MOVE BACK IN ON THIS
FLOW, WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER WINDS, ALONG WITH THE START OF A
LONG STRETCH OF DAY TO DAY WARMING. WEDNESDAY'S HIGH WILL REBOUND
ABOUT 10 DEGREES WITH LOWLAND HIGHS BACK IN THE 70S.
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, AND INTO THE WEEKEND, HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE BAJA AND EXPANDS EAST ACROSS THE U.S. SOUTHWEST
DESERTS. WE WILL BE AN EXTENDED RUN OF DRY CONDITIONS, WITH FAIR
WEATHER, SUNNY SKIES, AND LIGHTER WINDS. SOME AFTERNOONS COULD BE
OCCASIONALLY AND MARGINALLY BREEZY, BUT NO IMPACTFUL WINDS ARE
EXPECTED. THE MAIN STORY WILL BECOME THE TEMPERATURES, AS WE ARE
LIKELY TO SEE EL PASO HIGHS CLIMB TO THE 90S NEAR THE END OF NEXT
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS) ISSUED AT 517 PM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL TERMINALS. SKIES SKC TO
FEW/SCT130. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND TOMORROW
MORNING, WITH AFTERNOON WINDS FAVORINGS SSE TO SSW IN THE 5-10KT
RANGE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1108 AM MDT SUN MAR 8 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AOB 10 MPH AT 20-FT ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH
MIN RHS NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. A STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS MON NIGHT THRU TUE, KNOCKING ERCS BACK DOWN TOWARDS THE
50TH PERCENTILE. WINDS GET A BIT BREEZIER FOR MON FROM THE SOUTH
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN HUMIDITY.
THERE'S A LOW CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MON PM, MAINLY E OF
THE US-54 CORRIDOR. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40 MPH AND DRY
LIGHTNING COULD BE SEEN LATER ON MON. MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY FOR TUE AS W WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT LATER IN THE
DAY. WINDS STAY ELEVATED THROUGH TUE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING ON WED.
CALMER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AS TEMPERATURES
WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
ZERO AND NO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK. FUELS RETURN TO THEIR DRYING TREND ON WED, BECOMING MORE
OF AN ISSUE THROUGH MID-MARCH.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 12-25% THROUGH MON, 30-60% ON TUE, THEN RETURNING
TO NEAR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. VENTILATION WILL BE FAIR TO VERY GOOD
THIS AFTERNOON, VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT MON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 50 82 52 66 / 0 0 30 70
SIERRA BLANCA 45 79 46 66 / 0 10 20 60
LAS CRUCES 44 77 45 61 / 0 0 40 80
ALAMOGORDO 43 78 44 64 / 0 0 40 70
CLOUDCROFT 35 57 35 44 / 0 0 40 80
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 44 77 47 64 / 0 0 50 80
SILVER CITY 43 70 41 53 / 0 0 80 90
DEMING 43 80 46 63 / 0 0 70 80
LORDSBURG 42 77 44 59 / 0 10 80 80
WEST EL PASO METRO 52 81 52 65 / 0 0 30 80
DELL CITY 41 82 44 70 / 0 0 10 40
FORT HANCOCK 48 86 48 72 / 0 0 20 70
LOMA LINDA 48 75 47 60 / 0 0 20 70
FABENS 49 85 50 69 / 0 0 20 70
SANTA TERESA 46 80 47 63 / 0 0 30 80
WHITE SANDS HQ 49 80 50 65 / 0 0 30 80
JORNADA RANGE 41 79 42 63 / 0 0 50 80
HATCH 41 81 45 66 / 0 0 50 80
COLUMBUS 46 80 49 64 / 0 0 50 70
OROGRANDE 43 78 45 64 / 0 0 30 70
MAYHILL 38 71 40 58 / 0 0 30 70
MESCALERO 37 68 38 55 / 0 0 50 80
TIMBERON 40 66 39 52 / 0 0 30 80
WINSTON 33 70 35 58 / 0 0 60 90
HILLSBORO 44 75 44 62 / 0 0 60 90
SPACEPORT 39 77 40 64 / 0 0 50 70
LAKE ROBERTS 38 70 37 54 / 0 0 80 90
HURLEY 40 73 40 57 / 0 0 80 80
CLIFF 38 77 42 60 / 0 0 90 90
MULE CREEK 39 73 39 55 / 0 0 90 80
FAYWOOD 45 72 44 58 / 0 0 70 80
ANIMAS 43 78 44 60 / 0 10 80 70
HACHITA 41 77 43 60 / 0 10 70 70
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 78 42 60 / 0 10 70 70
CLOVERDALE 46 72 42 53 / 0 10 80 70
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...14-BIRD
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