553
FXUS64 KEPZ 100120
AFDEPZ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
720 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
UPDATED AT 543 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
- SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. BREEZY LATER ON TUESDAY.
- NO CHANCE OF RAIN FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD.
- TEMPERATURES FALL TO BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY; THEN BACK WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD IS EXPECTED IN THE SHORT-TERM AS OUR BAJA LOW
MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH NORTHERN MX. TODAY WILL BE A WARMER, DRY DAY
WITH MODEST S WINDS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN HUDSPETH THAT WAS FORECAST FOR LATER IN THE
DAY HAS DIMINISHED AS DEW POINTS ARE MODELED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE
30S. WE REMAIN UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT DURING THE DAY, BUT WITH
LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.
THAT CHANGES TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CREEPS EASTWARD INTO SONORA
AND INCREASES MOISTURE LEVELS AHEAD OF IT (DEW POINTS INTO THE
40S). THE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE GENERALLY S TO N.
THE NEXT WAVE OF SHOWERS ARRIVES EARLY TUE AM IN THE BOOTHEEL,
PROGRESSING NE THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW AS IT SCOOTS THRU N CHIHUAHUA
DURING THE DAY. AGAIN, ISOLATED EMBEDDED T-STORMS MAY BE SEEN WITH
THESE SHOWERS AS INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING. GENERALLY, RAIN
RATES WILL BE LIGHT AND ABOUT 0.25" OF RAIN IS FORECAST FOR THE
EVENT. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN HEAVIER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, AND MOST LIKELY FOR W GRANT CO (0.5" OR MORE);
LOWER TOTALS INTO HUDSPETH CO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IN EL PASO
WILL BE IN THE LATE MORNING, DIMINISHING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
RAIN CHANCES OVERALL COME TO AN END TUE EVENING AS THE LOW EJECTS
TO THE EAST.
FOR SNOWFALL, ONLY ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8500FT WILL HAVE A CHANCE AT
ANY ACCUMULATIONS, WHICH WOULD COME ON TUE WITH THAT SECOND WAVE
OF PRECIP. AREAS AROUND SUNSPOT COULD SEE A COATING IF THE SNOW IS
ABLE TO STICK. BREEZY POST-FRONTAL WINDS ARE FORECAST TUE PM INTO
WED AM, ESPECIALLY FOR EAST MTN SLOPES. A STRONG SFC LOW DEVELOPS
TUE AFTERNOON IN SE COLORADO, SETTING UP A RESPECTABLE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. W WINDS OF 15-25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE FORECAST TUE AFTERNOON, A BIT STRONGER
OUT EAST. SINCE THE WINDS WILL COME AFTER THE EXPECTED RAINFALL,
BLOWING DUST IS NOT REALLY A CONCERN.
LINGERING BREEZINESS IS FORECAST FOR WED, OTHERWISE IT'LL BE DRY
AND WARMER. LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT TAKES OVER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK WITH AN UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH NO WX
HAZARDS. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO POKE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AND BRING BREEZY E WINDS, BUT NOT MUCH ELSE OF NOTE.
TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, FALLING
TO BELOW AVERAGE ON TUE BEHIND THE PACIFIC FRONT. WE GO RIGHT BACK
TO ABOVE NORMAL WED, CONTINUING THE WARMING TREND THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND UP TO NEAR-RECORD LEVELS. WE'RE STILL LOOKING AT THE
POTENTIAL FOR HISTORICALLY HOT WEATHER FOR MID-MARCH (3/18-21) WITH
HIGHS SOARING INTO THE 90S FOR EL PASO.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING INCREASING SHOWER CHANCES
OVERNIGHT, SOME OF WHICH ARE TRYING TO CROSS THE BORDER CURRENTLY.
HOWEVER, WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE, MUCH OF THIS INITIAL
ROUND WILL BE VIRGA, AND CLOUD BASES WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH AS
WELL. BUT, THE EVAPORATIVE EFFECTS COULD BOOST WIND GUSTS FROM THE
SOUTH THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
(INCLUDING ELP) AFTER 02Z. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL TEND TO BE
VARIABLE AND NOT STEADY.
BETTER PRECIP CHANCES WILL COME TOWARDS MORNING AS THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/UPPER LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND WE'LL
HAVE HAD SOME TIME TO MOISTEN UP. VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL MOST
LIKELY, AND WHILE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE WE'LL SEE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, THE PROBABILITY LOOKS TO BE AROUND 20 PERCENT AT
ANY GIVEN POINT, SO IT WAS LEFT OUT OF THIS ROUND OF TAFS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY MIDDAY AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH (ARGUABLY A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT) PUSHES THROUGH. LEE TROUGHING WILL TIGHTEN UP
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT, AND WINDS COULD APPROACH THE LOWER END OF
AWW CRITERIA AT ELP IN THE AFTERNOON. UNLIKE THE VIRGA-INDUCED
GUSTY WINDS, THE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BE STEADIER ONCE THEY SET
IN.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT MON MAR 9 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A
STORM SYSTEM BRINGS SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS MON NIGHT THRU TUE,
KNOCKING ERCS BACK DOWN TOWARDS THE 50TH PERCENTILE. WINDS GET A
BIT BREEZIER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE IN HUMIDITY FROM YESTERDAY. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY FOR TUE AM, DIMINISHING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. W WINDS INCREASE BEHIND THE FRONT TUE PM,
STAYING BREEZY THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING ON WED. CALMER
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEGINNING WED AS TEMPERATURES WARM
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL BY NEXT WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NEAR
ZERO AND NO STRONG WINDS ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK. FUELS RETURN TO THEIR DRYING TREND ON WED, BECOMING
MORE OF AN ISSUE THROUGH MID-MARCH.
MIN RHS RANGE FROM 10-25% TODAY AND WED-THU, 35-65% ON TUE.
VENTILATION WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT MON, THEN FAIR TO VERY
GOOD.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
EL PASO 51 65 49 78 / 50 80 10 0
SIERRA BLANCA 45 65 43 73 / 40 60 10 0
LAS CRUCES 44 62 42 76 / 60 80 10 0
ALAMOGORDO 45 65 39 77 / 50 70 10 0
CLOUDCROFT 35 44 31 55 / 50 70 10 0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES 48 66 47 76 / 40 70 10 0
SILVER CITY 41 54 39 70 / 80 90 20 0
DEMING 46 64 44 77 / 80 90 20 0
LORDSBURG 44 60 39 73 / 90 70 10 0
WEST EL PASO METRO 50 63 49 77 / 50 70 10 0
DELL CITY 44 70 40 77 / 20 50 0 0
FORT HANCOCK 48 71 46 81 / 30 70 10 0
LOMA LINDA 46 59 43 71 / 40 70 10 0
FABENS 49 66 47 79 / 40 80 10 0
SANTA TERESA 47 62 46 76 / 40 80 10 0
WHITE SANDS HQ 50 64 49 77 / 50 70 10 0
JORNADA RANGE 42 63 39 77 / 60 70 20 0
HATCH 45 67 41 79 / 60 70 20 0
COLUMBUS 48 63 48 77 / 50 90 10 0
OROGRANDE 45 63 40 74 / 40 70 10 0
MAYHILL 40 60 39 66 / 40 70 10 0
MESCALERO 37 57 34 66 / 50 70 20 0
TIMBERON 39 53 36 63 / 40 70 10 0
WINSTON 34 59 36 70 / 60 80 10 0
HILLSBORO 44 63 45 75 / 60 80 20 0
SPACEPORT 42 65 39 77 / 60 70 20 0
LAKE ROBERTS 37 55 36 70 / 80 90 20 0
HURLEY 40 57 39 71 / 80 80 20 0
CLIFF 41 61 36 76 / 90 90 10 0
MULE CREEK 40 57 36 71 / 90 80 10 0
FAYWOOD 44 57 42 73 / 80 80 20 0
ANIMAS 45 61 41 74 / 90 80 10 0
HACHITA 44 60 41 73 / 80 80 10 0
ANTELOPE WELLS 43 59 38 74 / 80 80 10 0
CLOVERDALE 42 53 38 69 / 80 80 10 0
EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.
FORECASTER...25-HARDIMAN
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